UPDATE: NIT bracket has been released!
First off, want to say I love the passion of the various fans who have visited this site! Have been getting 150-300 visitors a day this past week, with 9000+ hits today! A thank you to the handful who decided to say what's on their mind even if it is to tell me I don't know what I'm blogging about! 8-) And thank you that thus far, I have not had to delete anyone's comments as I try to run a family friendly blog here.
For the record, 27 of the 32 teams I predicted got into the NIT.
My NIT picks were put to bed on Saturday night so I didn't take into account the results of the last few tournament games Sunday nor the release of the NCAA bracket. Thus, I didn't anticipate that Ohio State and Illinois State would fall out of the NCAA into the NIT so I got those wrong. Their fall into the NIT would have pushed Charlotte and Miami-Ohio out of my selections. I had Villanova in the NIT but they wound up in the NCAA which would have brought Charlotte back into the NIT on my list. Thus, I had three outright misses in the case of SDSU, Maryland and Cleveland State who were on the top half of my "just out" group. Thus, they were on my radar as potential NIT candidates but the NIT selection committee felt their resumes were better than I thought.
As far as seeding forecasts, I was either correct or off by one. I've marked below the three cases where I was off by 2 of more.
If all goes well, NIT Bracketology will return in 2009!
Until then, enjoy the Madness!
Be sure to check out NIT-ology which is the first NIT Bracketology web site I found a couple years back. Just recently discovered another very fine site, The Bracket Project - NIT.
So for insatiable fans, here is an additional 2008 NIT Bracketology to chew on!
Boldfaced teams are in the NIT by auto bid.
Out of NCAA into NIT (could sneak into NCAA)
1) Syracuse
2) New Mexico (they are a 5 seed)
3) Mississippi
4) Creighton
Solid NIT (self-explanatory)
5) Villanova (went up to NCAA)
6) Va Tech
7) Dayton
8) Arizona St (I don't know. If the NCAA takes AZ, they kind of have to take Oregon and ASU because those two teams have better Pac10 records than the Wildcats and beat AZ twice each! But ASU RPI is poor.)
9) U Mass
10) VCU, Colonial regular season champions, lost in semi-finals to W&M, George Mason goes to the NCAA
11) Florida State
12) Florida
13) G. Tech (outright miss)
14) Southern Illinois
15) UAB
16) Oklahoma State
17) Nebraska (they are a 3 seed)
18) California
19) IUPUI (outright miss)
20) Rhode Island
21) Minnesota (they are a 4 seed)
22) Texas Tech (outright miss)
23) Akron
Can be bumped out of NIT from teams bumped from NCAA
If Illinois beats Wisconsin, a bubble bursts in the NCAA sending someone to the NIT. Likewise if Georgia beats Arkansas.
24) Charlotte
25) Miami-Ohio (bumped by an NCAA bubble burst)
Automatic bid to NIT for regular season champs
26) UCSB, Big West regular season champs, lost to my Anteaters!
27) Utah State, regular season champs, lost in WAC semi-final
28) Stephan Austin, Southland regular season champs lost in semi-final
29) Robert Morris, Northeast regular season champs lost in post-season tournament
30) UNC Ashville, Big South regular season champs lost to Winthrop
who goes to NCAA
31) Morgan State, MEAC regular season champs, lost in finals)
32) Alabama State, regular season champs, lost in Southwest semi-final
Just out (self-explanatory)
Maryland (in NIT)
Cleveland State (in NIT)
Houston
SDSU (in NIT)
Wake Forrest
Illinois
Wash
Cal State Fullerton (they win Big west they go to NCAA!)
UPDATE: CBI bracket announced.
One-bid conferences
NCAA at-large or on NCAA Bubble:
SUNBELT (South Alabama, regular season champs, lost in tournament, W. Kentucky gets auto bid to NCAA)
UPDATE: They got into the NCAA as a 10-seed.
Going to the NCAA:
AMERICA EAST (UMBC, regular season champs, won tournament)
ATLANTIC SUN (Belmont, regular season champs, won tournament)
BIG SKY (Portland State, regular season champs, won tournament)
HORIZON (Butler, regular season champs, won tournament)
IVY (Cornell, regular season champs, no tournament)
METRO ATLANTIC (Siena, regular season champs, won tournament)
MID AMERICAN (Kent State, regular season champ, won tournament)
OHIO VALLEY (Austin Peay, regular season champs, won tournament)
PATRIOT (American, regular season champs, won tournament)
SOUTHERN (Davidson, regular season champs, won tournament)
SUMMIT (Oral Roberts, regular season champs, won tournament)
To keep track of the conference tournaments go to Championship Week Page at ESPN and for commentary on the mid-majors visit Kyle Whelliston's Mid Majority.
UPDATE: Welcome St. Joe Hawk fans! Have a good A10 tourney run! A win over Xavier could get your guys into the NCAA! Beat Temple and you get the AUTO bid to the NCAA! Wow!
UPDATE: If I start a CBI bracketology an intervention will be required! Some probably think an intervention is already necessary as it is? If you can't get enough brackets, visit the gaggle of NCAA brackets at The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix!
UPDATE: NITology made a good point about the new CBI and its potential impact on the NIT: (3/13/08) Providence, Washington and Seton Hall played themselves out of the NIT with losses in the first rounds of their conference tournaments. Of course, these teams may prefer to host a bunch of CBI games anyway. Should be very interesting (and, unfortunately for me, impossible to predict) whether some of the larger schools that would not receive NIT home games will defect to the CBI. If teams like Wake and California show up there it'll be pretty clear that's what happened so I won't beat myself up for misses like that.
22 comments:
No Cincinnati! 13-13 but look at the wins.... Pitt,Villanova, West Va, Louisville, Syracuse... the non conf. was bad but played Xavier and Memphis close and they were without Senior PG Warren for the first 6-8 games so i believe they are def in the mix prolly like 5-8 seed not higher.
Thanks for dropping by Bearcat fan!
NITology has Cincy in as a #8 (as of 6:28pm PST 2/28).
Its definitely bubble territory when you are a power conference team around the .500 mark in conference play and overall.
If they take 2 of their last 3, they finish 10-8 in conference and 15-15 overall.
A decent showing in the Big East tournament would put them on the NIT radar screen but still rather precariously!
Stay tuned!
Virginia plays Georgia Tech in the first round of the ACC tourney -- I'll bet the winner ends up in the NIT.
Welcome ACC fan!
Looks like the ACC will get 6 into the NCAA with a few getting into the NIT. Virginia's profile is somewhat weaker than G. Tech's in terms of SOS (strength of schedule) and RPI (ratings percentage index). But ACC drawing power is a plus.
Hey how bout alabama 16-15 just beat vandy?
Thanks for dropping by 'Bama fan ... Nice win over Vandy!
The difficulty Alabama faces is the 5-11 SEC record.
G Tech is 14-16 overall and 7-9 in the ACC. So they are closer to .500 in the ACC.
Alabama will need to make some noise in the SEC tourney to get on the NIT radar screen and it might still not be enough. In any case, Roll Tide!
How do you think Nebraska could do in the NIT? I see you have them in and they have been playing much better as of late. If they can shoot well their defense can keep up with alot of teams.
Welcome Corn Husker fan!
Nice wins against KSU, A&M and OU!
Of the 3 NIT bracketing sites, Nebraska is coming in (as of 3/13/08, 6:46 PDT) as a #4,5 or 6 seed.
Thus, they should be good for a win or two in the NIT!
utah state is guranteed a spot in the NIT they won the tie breaker in the regular season so therfor the automatic bid in the NIT do some research first
Welcome Utah State fan!
Indeed, regular season champs get an NIT bid if they don't go to the NCAA.
I have been boldfacing those teams but neglected to mention that in the post.
I've updated the post and hopefully have made that more clear.
thanks for making it more apparent
What about The Nevada Wolf Pack?
21 - 11 should get them into the NIT. They have been an NCAA tourney team for the last 4 years but are quite young this year. They beet Utah State at their place and they played North carolina tough for the better part of three quarters before young mistakes blew the game open for the Tar Heels. Their RPI is 78.The best in the WAC. Nevada really should be seeded in the NIT.
Welcome Wolf Pack fan!
You are making a good case for Nevada and it will be interesting to see if the NIT selection committee puts them in.
With all the mid-major regular season champs getting knocked out in their tournaments a lot of NIT slots got eaten up. Also, NCAA bubble busted teams get pushed down into the NIT.
Nevada has nice RPI numbers but they hail from a weaker conference.
The NIT selection committee has to pick between around .500 power conference teams and higher level mid-majors.
We shall see!
NIT is set to announce their field at 9pm EDT!
The Nevada Wolf Pack should be a sure in into the NIT. They had a better season than anyone expected going 21-11 and tied for 1st place in the WAC.
"10) VCU, Colonial regular season champions, lost to George Mason who goes to the NCAA"
Man will anyone ever have a clue about the CInderella COnference of the CAA... VCU did NOT lose to GMU in the CAA Tourny... William and Mary beat VCU in the Semi-Final game then lost to GMU in the finals. The true CInderella dancin as the 12 seed in the EAST!
Unbelievable... Nevada not in the NIT!
I understand there were many #1 seeds that got bumped from Various
conference tournaments. But Nevada with an RPI of 76, strongest in the WAC deserved to be in the NIT.
Plus they tied for the WAC championship (12-4) w/ Boise State, Utah State and New Mexico State. Still No NIT bid. Make no mistake, this young Wolf Pack team will be back in the NCAA tournament next year. Carolina will visit Nevada next year and that's going to be a tough trip for the Tar Heels. I guess we'll have to see about the CBI. If it's even worth it.
OMG, you didnt think Sun Devils would make NIT and they made a #1 seed! Hello, Wake Up!
Welcome ASU fan!
I wasn't sure if the NCAA was going to take 6 or 7 Pac10 teams. Unfortunately, if they took 6 then ASU was the team going to the NIT.
I forecasted them as a #2 seed in the NIT.
Tough break for Nevada, you make a good case for them. Looks like a team to keep an eye on for next season!
Welcome CAA fan!
My bad on the info on who VCU lost to. I'll fix the post. Really tough break that they didn't get an at-large to the NCAA. One of several hard luck cases.
My personal feeling is that the 6th, 7th or 8th team in a so-called power conference shouldn't get in over a regular season champ from a solid mid-major!
nice website!
I agree with the Wolfpack fan, but a case could also be made for the "other" WAC team, New Mexico State. I mean they finished the season smoking hot winning 10 of their last 12 with the two losses being one at the aforementioned Nevada and the other a loss in the conference tournament finals in triple OT! The Aggies played terribly in the first half of the season with big losses to Ohio, Duke, and Texas, but that was before they had their stud freshman , Herb Pope, and with a 1st year coach still learning his team.
It doesn't surprise me that the WAC only got the auto-bid in the NIT though. Recently, the tourney has favored mediocre teams from the "power" conferences (hello? Cal and Oklahoma State as 4 and 5 seeds?) instead of good teams (20+ wins) from the "mid-majors".
I think some of the mid-major schools got the shaft even for those that made the NIT. Steven F. Austin and Cleveland St. are better than their seeds and VCU should be a 2 or 3. At least VCU gets the home game in the first round.
Still, I love college basketball and look forward to all the games in all three tournaments!
Congratulation 9000+ hits today! That is so great! i agree with anon though i believe they are def in the mix prolly like 5-8 seed not higher.&&Looks like the ACC will get 6 into the NCAA with a few getting into the NIT.
Great stuff though!
Ben
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