Round 4, South Carolina

Round 4 in the Democratic nomination battle.

In the first three rounds, the story has been Sanders.

By the numbers:

Iowa Caucus (the procedure adjusts for the voters second choice candidates)
Sanders won with 24.7% in the first round
But when adjusted for the caucus procedures Buttigieg got a slim delegate lead (13 vs. 12) because caucus takes into account voter's second choice candidates.

New Hampshire (straight up primary so one vote for one candidate)
Sanders won with 25.7% just beating out Buttigieg

Nevada Caucus (the procedure adjusts for the voters second choice candidates)
Sanders won with 34% and when adjusted for the caucus procedures he won easily (24 delegates to Biden’s 9).

South Carolina is up next and a primary state (straight up primary so one vote for one candidate)
Key questions: 
Will Biden win and by how much if he does? 
I think Biden needs a pretty large win to right the ship.
A +10% points would solidify his claim to be the comeback kid!
Clearing 40% would be even better
UPDATE: Biden cleared 40% with 48.4% and won by almost 30%

How many percent will Sanders get?
Sanders has a hard-core base of support that is around 25-30%. In 2016, he had his hard-core supporters AND the anybody but Clinton voter thus the reason for the hotly contested 2016 nomination race. Nevada was the first indication this season that maybe he is starting to break beyond his core voters. South Carolina will be another test. 
If his numbers drop back to Iowa and New Hampshire levels then he may really have a glass ceiling of support. 
UPDATE: Sanders came in at 19.9% the lowest of the first four races. IN states not known for left politics, Sanders appears to have a glass ceiling.

Will South Carolina voters decide it is a two-person race? 
If the third-place finisher is around 10% or less that means people are abandoning the lower tier candidates. Biden has the name ID and Sanders has the cash to compete widely in Super Tuesday. However, Buttigieg/Warren/Klobuchar are running out of money and won’t be able to run nation-wide in super Tuesday so they need to have a strong third and weaker than expected Biden/Sanders numbers in order to really remain viable. Steyer and Bloomberg are billionaires so they can stay as long as they want. But at some point they are businessmen and will eventually get out when they feel they have satisfied their egos enough.
UPDATE: Steyer came in at 11.3%, Buttigieg 8.2%, and Klobuchar 3.1% and all three have suspended their campaigns. 

Star Trek Short Treks and Picard

Saw all the live action Short Treks for season 2.

Very much enjoyed the Spock-Number One focused "Q&A."

Thought "The Trouble with Edward" was over the top. Don't mind playing some story lines for laughs but that was too much to take.

The Pike and Cadet test of character in "Ask Not" was wonderful in such a short package.

"Children of Mars" was a very moving story within the story of the Synth attack of Mars that is part of the backstory for Picard.

Will eventually get around to seeing the two animated ones.

Meanwhile, have seen episodes 1-2-3 of Picard.

Very different approach than Discovery. Discovery's non-stop action is in contrast to the slower paced Picard. It is true to Picard in his near the end of his days situation. He is not doing action hero stunts at his age! But his conviction to stand up and do something remains strong: the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak...

We have been treated to some short dream sequence bits with Brent Spiner's Data. Wonderful stuff.

Jonathan Del Arco appears as Hugh in episode 3 and will be seeing more of him in the episode ahead I'm sure!

Of the new cast members, too bad we probably won't be seeing much more of Picard's fiercely loyal Romulan winery-house-body guard staffers Laris and Zhaban. Really enjoyed them and their humor and drama.

Bit by bit, we have been introduced to Picard's new team. Jurati was first up as the expert on synthetic life forms. Musiker is Picard's estranged top aide from his days as an admiral. Loved the call back to Vasquez Rock. They even simply call the place by its real name! In episode 3, we meet the pilot Rios. Each character has been sketched out with their "issues" and strengths that will be filled out in the episodes to come. Thus, far they are well acted and will be interested to see how they develop in the remaining episodes.

Meanwhile, we have met the deliciously (perhaps a bit over the top) wicked bad guys: Narek, Rizzo, and Oh. You would think Star Fleet would be better at counter-intelligence! On the other hand, maybe the more things change the more they stay the same. Check out Malcolm Gladwell's podcast episode of how a Cuban spy operated in Washington DC for years! Rooting out the mole isn't always so easy.

And of course, at the center of the story is Dahj/Soji. It is unfolding out as a mystery: what is she looking for? are there more of her kind? why is it that both don't seem to know their true origins?

One plot nitpick: Jurati explains that Maddox had the idea that one could clone a neuron from Data's positronic brain to make the organic android Dahj/Soji and presumably others. However, I don't seem to recall that Data had any biological components? Cloning, in the sense we know it today, involves taking something biological (cells or DNA) and replicating it. I was under the impression that Data was entirely mechanical and wouldn't have any biological cells or DNA chromosomes to clone!

I suppose the closest thing to what Dahj/Soji are in other science fiction are the Blade Runner replicants. They were biological constructs and by implanting memories they can behave more human like and by genetic engineering they could have incredible physical strength.