TBO = The Big One 3/3 Super Tuesday

There is not a lot of polling data out there according to Real Clear Politics.

What is the polling data saying?

California - Sanders is set to win, the question is whether anyone else will clear the 15% needed to snag some delegates. Biden needs to get over 15% and better yet 20%.

Texas - Sanders has a slim lead but it is within the margin of error and will be a key state to watch. Hence, Biden is getting Senator Amy and Mayor Pete to appear with him in a rally in Texas tonight. If this works, Biden gets the first down to keep the drive going.

North Carolina - Biden has a slim lead but it is within the margin of error and another key state to watch.

Virginia - the polling report at RCP is a bit out dated so it is hard to say what is going on there and another key state to watch

States Biden should win
  1. Alabama (52) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
  2. Arkansas (31) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
  3. Tennessee (64) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
States Sanders should win
  1. California (415) - polling data in favor of Sanders
  2. Colorado (67) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
  3. Maine (24) - no polling data but Sanders from nearby Vermont
  4. Massachusetts (91) - Warren's home state but will she beat out Sanders?
  5. Minnesota (75) - Klobuchar home state but will she beat out Sanders?
  6. Oklahoma (37) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
  7. Vermont (16) - no polling data but Sander's home state
  8. Utah (29) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
As you can see, there are six states where Sanders is likely to win and two where he will probably finish a strong second.

Unknown
  1. American Samoa (6) - Is it controlled by the Democratic establishment? If yes, Biden should win
  2. North Carolina (110) - close in the polls
  3. Texas (228) - close in the polls
  4. Virginia (99) - close in the polls
Biden will need to win these four to keep the race close. 

Bloomberg is a wild card. It would be terribly ironic if a multi-billionaire is the reason the Democrats win up with Sanders as the nominee an potential POTUS!


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