Drudge is linking to this poll which claims Bush has a 54-43 lead on Kerry.
The problem with the poll?
374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)
The sample has a LOT more Republicans which I don't think is reflective of the country at large.
LA isn't a football town
The Raiders and Rams have long left the area and for many years. UCLA had a couple of good seasons but otherwise have been pretty much out of it. Last season USC had a good run to the national title and they are favored to do so again.
As a UCLA alum, I follow the team. Today, I have the radio on and they are playing against Ok State. The guy on the radio says the O-line of Ok State has about a 60 pound average edge over the defensive line of UCLA. It shows. OK State is making the defense look like swiss cheese. The score is 21-14 and the half isn't even over and Ok State has the ball again and they are marching to score again.
At this rate, it will be a blowout. UCLA's only chance will be to force some turnovers on defense and hope for some big plays on special teams and offense to score. A grind it out game means the Bruins will be turned into mashed potatos.
As a UCLA alum, I follow the team. Today, I have the radio on and they are playing against Ok State. The guy on the radio says the O-line of Ok State has about a 60 pound average edge over the defensive line of UCLA. It shows. OK State is making the defense look like swiss cheese. The score is 21-14 and the half isn't even over and Ok State has the ball again and they are marching to score again.
At this rate, it will be a blowout. UCLA's only chance will be to force some turnovers on defense and hope for some big plays on special teams and offense to score. A grind it out game means the Bruins will be turned into mashed potatos.
Dodgers shut out 3-0
A loss is a loss but at least it wasn't 13-0. Lima only giving up 3 runs in 7 innings is a good outing considering how many big bats the Cards have. But unfortunately, the Dodgers only manged 2 hits the whole game.
We shall see how the next two games go. If the Dodgers can take at least 1 game and be competitive in the other, they have to feel good about their prospects.
We shall see how the next two games go. If the Dodgers can take at least 1 game and be competitive in the other, they have to feel good about their prospects.
Live blogging the final night of the GOP convention
Here is the released text of the upcoming speech.
Wonder if any other speaker has used the speaker in the round set up for an acceptance speech?
Bush opened up with thanks to family.
He moved next to a simple recollection of 9/11.
Bush is now moving onto economic issues.
It is a bit of a laundry list and short on details. In particular is the commission on tax code simplification. Sounds good but can you give us a peak at what is on the table? Flat tax? Sales tax?
Now, he is onto health care. He is talking insurance portability and medical malpractice lawsuit reforms.
Okay, so this is being folded into this notion of the "Ownership Society." It is about owning your health care, home and retirement plan and having more control over your life.
Transitioning to education.
Bush uses Spanish to say, "We will leave no child behind."
Next up is health care for children.
This speech is turning into a bit of a State of the Union laundry list.
He gives a brief counter-punch at Sen. Kerry.
He is now hitting the hot button social issues. He mentions protecting the unborn and protecting the institution of marriage.
Bush is seizing on the conservative values theme and pointing out that Sen. Kerry isn't a conservative.
Bush is now back on the war on the terrorists and restates his determination.
The camera has panned over to apparently the security people pulling somebody out of the auditorium. What the heck? What kind of security do they have here?
It is happening again. Another demonstrator is being ushered off.
I suppose they can get in but as long as they don't carry anything dangerous.
Bush is talking the future of Afghanistan and Iraq and the hope of democracy over in those lands.
He now speaks directly to the soldiers and their families and thanks them for their sacrifice in liberating the oppressed peoples of Afghanistan and Iraq.
There is that famed I voted for and then against the $87 billion Kerry flip-flop.
Bush thanks the world leaders who have supported the liberation of Iraq and chides Sen. Kerry for saying they are the coalition of the bribed.
The theme now is on liberty and freedom throughout the world and thus making all safer.
Some self-effacing humor about his mangling of English, the swagger which Texans call walking and then his straight talk which he thanked his mother for.
Now, he is speaking movingly of the military families he has met and extols the character of the American people.
He tips his hat to the New Yorkers: here buildings fell, here a nation rose.
"To everything we know there is a season — a time for sadness, a time for struggle, a time for rebuilding. And now we have reached a time for hope. This young century will be liberty's century. By promoting liberty abroad, we will build a safer world. By encouraging liberty at home, we will build a more hopeful America. Like generations before us, we have a calling from beyond the stars to stand for freedom. This is the everlasting dream of America — and tonight, in this place, that dream is renewed. Now we go forward — grateful for our freedom, faithful to our cause, and confident in the future of the greatest nation on earth. God bless you, and may God continue to bless America."
Instant analysis: A "B" effort. Bush is most moving speaking about the stakes of the war against the terrorists and linking the progress of liberty abroad to security at home. His jabs against Sen. Kerry were perhaps a little bit much but certainly nothing like the fire and ice of Zell Miller and VP Cheney last night. The domestic part was a bit cut and pasted. The "Ownership Society" theme could have been more clearly announced.
Wonder if any other speaker has used the speaker in the round set up for an acceptance speech?
Bush opened up with thanks to family.
He moved next to a simple recollection of 9/11.
Bush is now moving onto economic issues.
It is a bit of a laundry list and short on details. In particular is the commission on tax code simplification. Sounds good but can you give us a peak at what is on the table? Flat tax? Sales tax?
Now, he is onto health care. He is talking insurance portability and medical malpractice lawsuit reforms.
Okay, so this is being folded into this notion of the "Ownership Society." It is about owning your health care, home and retirement plan and having more control over your life.
Transitioning to education.
Bush uses Spanish to say, "We will leave no child behind."
Next up is health care for children.
This speech is turning into a bit of a State of the Union laundry list.
He gives a brief counter-punch at Sen. Kerry.
He is now hitting the hot button social issues. He mentions protecting the unborn and protecting the institution of marriage.
Bush is seizing on the conservative values theme and pointing out that Sen. Kerry isn't a conservative.
Bush is now back on the war on the terrorists and restates his determination.
The camera has panned over to apparently the security people pulling somebody out of the auditorium. What the heck? What kind of security do they have here?
It is happening again. Another demonstrator is being ushered off.
I suppose they can get in but as long as they don't carry anything dangerous.
Bush is talking the future of Afghanistan and Iraq and the hope of democracy over in those lands.
He now speaks directly to the soldiers and their families and thanks them for their sacrifice in liberating the oppressed peoples of Afghanistan and Iraq.
There is that famed I voted for and then against the $87 billion Kerry flip-flop.
Bush thanks the world leaders who have supported the liberation of Iraq and chides Sen. Kerry for saying they are the coalition of the bribed.
The theme now is on liberty and freedom throughout the world and thus making all safer.
Some self-effacing humor about his mangling of English, the swagger which Texans call walking and then his straight talk which he thanked his mother for.
Now, he is speaking movingly of the military families he has met and extols the character of the American people.
He tips his hat to the New Yorkers: here buildings fell, here a nation rose.
"To everything we know there is a season — a time for sadness, a time for struggle, a time for rebuilding. And now we have reached a time for hope. This young century will be liberty's century. By promoting liberty abroad, we will build a safer world. By encouraging liberty at home, we will build a more hopeful America. Like generations before us, we have a calling from beyond the stars to stand for freedom. This is the everlasting dream of America — and tonight, in this place, that dream is renewed. Now we go forward — grateful for our freedom, faithful to our cause, and confident in the future of the greatest nation on earth. God bless you, and may God continue to bless America."
Instant analysis: A "B" effort. Bush is most moving speaking about the stakes of the war against the terrorists and linking the progress of liberty abroad to security at home. His jabs against Sen. Kerry were perhaps a little bit much but certainly nothing like the fire and ice of Zell Miller and VP Cheney last night. The domestic part was a bit cut and pasted. The "Ownership Society" theme could have been more clearly announced.
Can the Dodgers do it?
It has been a few years since there has been this much excitment over the Dodgers. The true blue fans have been riding the rollar coaster for a few months now and are feeling some hope and anticipation.
I think the city's casual fans haven't gotten on board yet. When they do, will the town be as excited about baseball as they have been about the Lakers?
If you are a fan you know they are 5 1/2 games in front of the Giants and 6 up on the Padres and that Dodger playoff tickets go on sale on September 10, the Friday after tomorrow.
If you are a casual fan, wake up and join the bandwagon!
Anyway, I won't be showing up at the ballpark for the lottery but I'll try from the internet to snare some tickets.
Friday/Saturday/Sunday contests against St. Louis will be a huge test of the Dodgers. Skeptics have been thinking the Dodgers have been beating up on the NL West but won't stand up against the best of the rest. Right now the Cardinals are definitely getting the buzz of those who are looking for a team to root for against the Yankees as the road to the MLB championship gets near the end.
I think the city's casual fans haven't gotten on board yet. When they do, will the town be as excited about baseball as they have been about the Lakers?
If you are a fan you know they are 5 1/2 games in front of the Giants and 6 up on the Padres and that Dodger playoff tickets go on sale on September 10, the Friday after tomorrow.
If you are a casual fan, wake up and join the bandwagon!
Anyway, I won't be showing up at the ballpark for the lottery but I'll try from the internet to snare some tickets.
Friday/Saturday/Sunday contests against St. Louis will be a huge test of the Dodgers. Skeptics have been thinking the Dodgers have been beating up on the NL West but won't stand up against the best of the rest. Right now the Cardinals are definitely getting the buzz of those who are looking for a team to root for against the Yankees as the road to the MLB championship gets near the end.
Live blogging Cheney's speech
Very low key. Must be intentional. Don't want to appear rabid while he is slicing up Kerry. And it shows that he isn't out for 2008 and carving his own place.
He is tearing Sen. Kerry limb from limb... a Senator can be wrong for 20 years without consequence... OUCH!
UPDATE: Instapundit is live blogging and agrees Cheney is quiet. He liked Zell Miller. Unfortunately, I missed that speech!
UPDATE: David Brooks on Newshour is saying Cheney's speech comes across like how he talks in person in an interview. As Brooks puts it, he doesn't do showmanship.
UPDATE: Professor Bainbridge is live blogging and here is what Bainbridge thinks of Zell Miller's speech and there is more and still more.
UPDATE: Here are Cheney's remarks on USAToday.
Excerpts:
People tell me that Senator Edwards got picked for his good looks, his sex appeal, and his great hair. I say to them — how do you think I got the job?
.......
Since I last spoke to our national convention, Lynne and I have had the joy of seeing our family grow. We now have a grandson to go along with our three wonderful granddaughters, and the deepest wish of my heart and the object of all my determination is that they, and all of America's children, will have lives filled with opportunity ... and that they will inherit a world in which they can live in freedom, in safety, and in peace.
............
The President's opponent is an experienced senator. He speaks often of his service in Vietnam, and we honor him for it. But there is also a record of more than three decades since. And on the question of America's role in the world, the differences between Senator Kerry and President Bush are the sharpest, and the stakes for the country are the highest. History has shown that a strong and purposeful America is vital to preserving freedom and keeping us safe — yet time and again Senator Kerry has made the wrong call on national security.
..........
In his years in Washington, John Kerry has been one of a hundred votes in the United States Senate — and very fortunately on matters of national security, his views rarely prevailed. But the presidency is an entirely different proposition. A senator can be wrong for 20 years, without consequence to the nation. But a president — a president — always casts the deciding vote. And in this time of challenge, America needs — and America has — a president we can count on to get it right.
..........
Senator Kerry says he sees two Americas. It makes the whole thing mutual — America sees two John Kerrys.
..........
The other candidate in this race is a man our nation has come to know, and one I've come to admire very much. I watch him at work every day. I have seen him face some of the hardest decisions that can come to the Oval Office — and make those decisions with the wisdom and humility Americans expect in their president. George W. Bush is a man who speaks plainly and means what he says. He is a person of loyalty and kindness — and he brings out these qualities in those around him. He is a man of great personal strength — and more than that, a man with a heart for the weak, and the vulnerable, and the afflicted.
............
George W. Bush saw this country through grief and tragedy ... he has acted with patience, and calm, and a moral seriousness that calls evil by its name. In the great divide of our time, he has put this nation where America always belongs: against the tyrants of this world, and on the side of every soul on earth who yearns to live in freedom.
Zell Miller transcript.
Excerpts:
And I know that's how you feel about your family also.
Like you, I think of their future, the promises and the perils they will face.
Like you, I believe that the next four years will determine what kind of world they will grow up in.
And like you, I ask which leader is it today that has the vision, the willpower and, yes, the backbone to best protect my family?
The clear answer to that question has placed me in this hall with you tonight. For my family is more important than my party.
There is but one man to whom I am willing to entrust their future and that man's name is George Bush.
..............
What has happened to the party I've spent my life working in? I can remember when Democrats believed that it was the duty of America to fight for freedom over tyranny.
It was Democratic President Harry Truman who pushed the Red Army out of Iran, who came to the aid of Greece when Communists threatened to overthrow it, who stared down the Soviet blockade of West Berlin by flying in supplies and saving the city.
Time after time in our history, in the face of great danger, Democrats and Republicans worked together to ensure that freedom would not falter. But not today.
...........
Never in the history of the world has any soldier sacrificed more for the freedom and liberty of total strangers than the American soldier. And, our soldiers don't just give freedom abroad, they preserve it for us here at home.
For it has been said so truthfully that it is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us the freedom of the press.
It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the agitator, who has given us the freedom to protest.
It is the soldier who salutes the flag, serves beneath the flag, whose coffin is draped by the flag who gives that protester the freedom to abuse and burn that flag.
...............
They don't believe there is any real danger in the world except that which America brings upon itself through our clumsy and misguided foreign policy.
It is not their patriotism - it is their judgment that has been so sorely lacking. They claimed Carter's pacifism would lead to peace.
They were wrong.
They claimed Reagan's defense buildup would lead to war.
They were wrong.
................
Listing all the weapon systems that Senator Kerry tried his best to shut down sounds like an auctioneer selling off our national security but Americans need to know the facts.
.............
This is the man who wants to be the Commander in Chief of our U.S. Armed Forces? U.S. forces armed with what? Spitballs?
.............
George Bush wants to grab terrorists by the throat and not let them go to get a better grip. From John Kerry, they get a "yes-no-maybe" bowl of mush that can only encourage our enemies and confuse our friends.
I first got to know George Bush when we served as governors together. I admire this man. I am moved by the respect he shows the First Lady, his unabashed love for his parents and his daughters, and the fact that he is unashamed of his belief that God is not indifferent to America.
I can identify with someone who has lived that line in "Amazing Grace," "Was blind, but now I see," and I like the fact that he's the same man on Saturday night that he is on Sunday morning.
He is not a slick talker but he is a straight shooter and, where I come from, deeds mean a lot more than words.
I have knocked on the door of this man's soul and found someone home, a God-fearing man with a good heart and a spine of tempered steel.
The man I trust to protect my most precious possession: my family.
Wow! This is a Democrat praising Bush!
Whoa!! What a thrashing he is giving Sen. Kerry!!
He is tearing Sen. Kerry limb from limb... a Senator can be wrong for 20 years without consequence... OUCH!
UPDATE: Instapundit is live blogging and agrees Cheney is quiet. He liked Zell Miller. Unfortunately, I missed that speech!
UPDATE: David Brooks on Newshour is saying Cheney's speech comes across like how he talks in person in an interview. As Brooks puts it, he doesn't do showmanship.
UPDATE: Professor Bainbridge is live blogging and here is what Bainbridge thinks of Zell Miller's speech and there is more and still more.
UPDATE: Here are Cheney's remarks on USAToday.
Excerpts:
People tell me that Senator Edwards got picked for his good looks, his sex appeal, and his great hair. I say to them — how do you think I got the job?
.......
Since I last spoke to our national convention, Lynne and I have had the joy of seeing our family grow. We now have a grandson to go along with our three wonderful granddaughters, and the deepest wish of my heart and the object of all my determination is that they, and all of America's children, will have lives filled with opportunity ... and that they will inherit a world in which they can live in freedom, in safety, and in peace.
............
The President's opponent is an experienced senator. He speaks often of his service in Vietnam, and we honor him for it. But there is also a record of more than three decades since. And on the question of America's role in the world, the differences between Senator Kerry and President Bush are the sharpest, and the stakes for the country are the highest. History has shown that a strong and purposeful America is vital to preserving freedom and keeping us safe — yet time and again Senator Kerry has made the wrong call on national security.
..........
In his years in Washington, John Kerry has been one of a hundred votes in the United States Senate — and very fortunately on matters of national security, his views rarely prevailed. But the presidency is an entirely different proposition. A senator can be wrong for 20 years, without consequence to the nation. But a president — a president — always casts the deciding vote. And in this time of challenge, America needs — and America has — a president we can count on to get it right.
..........
Senator Kerry says he sees two Americas. It makes the whole thing mutual — America sees two John Kerrys.
..........
The other candidate in this race is a man our nation has come to know, and one I've come to admire very much. I watch him at work every day. I have seen him face some of the hardest decisions that can come to the Oval Office — and make those decisions with the wisdom and humility Americans expect in their president. George W. Bush is a man who speaks plainly and means what he says. He is a person of loyalty and kindness — and he brings out these qualities in those around him. He is a man of great personal strength — and more than that, a man with a heart for the weak, and the vulnerable, and the afflicted.
............
George W. Bush saw this country through grief and tragedy ... he has acted with patience, and calm, and a moral seriousness that calls evil by its name. In the great divide of our time, he has put this nation where America always belongs: against the tyrants of this world, and on the side of every soul on earth who yearns to live in freedom.
Zell Miller transcript.
Excerpts:
And I know that's how you feel about your family also.
Like you, I think of their future, the promises and the perils they will face.
Like you, I believe that the next four years will determine what kind of world they will grow up in.
And like you, I ask which leader is it today that has the vision, the willpower and, yes, the backbone to best protect my family?
The clear answer to that question has placed me in this hall with you tonight. For my family is more important than my party.
There is but one man to whom I am willing to entrust their future and that man's name is George Bush.
..............
What has happened to the party I've spent my life working in? I can remember when Democrats believed that it was the duty of America to fight for freedom over tyranny.
It was Democratic President Harry Truman who pushed the Red Army out of Iran, who came to the aid of Greece when Communists threatened to overthrow it, who stared down the Soviet blockade of West Berlin by flying in supplies and saving the city.
Time after time in our history, in the face of great danger, Democrats and Republicans worked together to ensure that freedom would not falter. But not today.
...........
Never in the history of the world has any soldier sacrificed more for the freedom and liberty of total strangers than the American soldier. And, our soldiers don't just give freedom abroad, they preserve it for us here at home.
For it has been said so truthfully that it is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us the freedom of the press.
It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the agitator, who has given us the freedom to protest.
It is the soldier who salutes the flag, serves beneath the flag, whose coffin is draped by the flag who gives that protester the freedom to abuse and burn that flag.
...............
They don't believe there is any real danger in the world except that which America brings upon itself through our clumsy and misguided foreign policy.
It is not their patriotism - it is their judgment that has been so sorely lacking. They claimed Carter's pacifism would lead to peace.
They were wrong.
They claimed Reagan's defense buildup would lead to war.
They were wrong.
................
Listing all the weapon systems that Senator Kerry tried his best to shut down sounds like an auctioneer selling off our national security but Americans need to know the facts.
.............
This is the man who wants to be the Commander in Chief of our U.S. Armed Forces? U.S. forces armed with what? Spitballs?
.............
George Bush wants to grab terrorists by the throat and not let them go to get a better grip. From John Kerry, they get a "yes-no-maybe" bowl of mush that can only encourage our enemies and confuse our friends.
I first got to know George Bush when we served as governors together. I admire this man. I am moved by the respect he shows the First Lady, his unabashed love for his parents and his daughters, and the fact that he is unashamed of his belief that God is not indifferent to America.
I can identify with someone who has lived that line in "Amazing Grace," "Was blind, but now I see," and I like the fact that he's the same man on Saturday night that he is on Sunday morning.
He is not a slick talker but he is a straight shooter and, where I come from, deeds mean a lot more than words.
I have knocked on the door of this man's soul and found someone home, a God-fearing man with a good heart and a spine of tempered steel.
The man I trust to protect my most precious possession: my family.
Wow! This is a Democrat praising Bush!
Whoa!! What a thrashing he is giving Sen. Kerry!!
Electoral Vote Web Page
Check this out for the latest electoral college breakdown.
Speaking of the electoral college. Many years ago I read a short little paperback that explained the system and largely defended it. I'm sure newer books have been written about the system pro and con.
I'm dusting off my memory of what I read in that book and here was how they defended the electoral college.
(1) The US has benefited from the political stability of the two-party system. In popular vote models, the role of minor party candidates could prove disruptive. If people think politics in the USA is "Balkanized" now, imagine how it would be if minor party candidates can horse trade their voters in a popular vote system. As it is now, minor party candidates almost never get electoral votes and thus their impact is minimized.
Some will say Nader cost Gore the election. Possibly so. He got 2.88 million votes nationally. If there was a popular vote system, imagine if Nader on October 15 approached the major candidates and said, "I have a deal for you. If you give me X, Y, Z then I'll drop out of the race and tell my voters to support you." Admittedly, Nader's ego was so big he wouldn't have done it but what if in the future we go to a popular vote system and the minor party candidate is willing to make deals?
(2) The electoral college also prevents politicians from catering exclusively to urban voters. If the goal is just to get the most votes then candidates would only visit states with lots of voters and run ads in major media markets. This would result in a politics that caters to large population centers i.e. big cities and counties.
Take a look at the 2000 map. Bush carried only three "big" states: Texas, Florida and Ohio. Gore carried five: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan.
A popular vote system would drive the politicians to the big states and the big media markets. And we all know what kind of politics dominate big cities? The "fly-over" part of America would be ignored!
Would any politician go out to New Mexico or Iowa?
But if Iowa and New Mexico's electoral votes matter then politicans go out there.
In the end, politicans will never view all 50 states equally in terms of campaign value. But with the electoral college system, a mix of big states and small states will get visited.
(3) Changing the system would have unintended consequences like the ones mentioned and who knows what other ones. One scenario would be Florida-like recounts in all 50 states in a close election!! I'm sure imaginative people could come up with more.
In any case, the system has given a winner without popular vote victory very rarely (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) and the country did NOT fall apart. As the old saying goes: if it ain't broke why fix it.
Speaking of the electoral college. Many years ago I read a short little paperback that explained the system and largely defended it. I'm sure newer books have been written about the system pro and con.
I'm dusting off my memory of what I read in that book and here was how they defended the electoral college.
(1) The US has benefited from the political stability of the two-party system. In popular vote models, the role of minor party candidates could prove disruptive. If people think politics in the USA is "Balkanized" now, imagine how it would be if minor party candidates can horse trade their voters in a popular vote system. As it is now, minor party candidates almost never get electoral votes and thus their impact is minimized.
Some will say Nader cost Gore the election. Possibly so. He got 2.88 million votes nationally. If there was a popular vote system, imagine if Nader on October 15 approached the major candidates and said, "I have a deal for you. If you give me X, Y, Z then I'll drop out of the race and tell my voters to support you." Admittedly, Nader's ego was so big he wouldn't have done it but what if in the future we go to a popular vote system and the minor party candidate is willing to make deals?
(2) The electoral college also prevents politicians from catering exclusively to urban voters. If the goal is just to get the most votes then candidates would only visit states with lots of voters and run ads in major media markets. This would result in a politics that caters to large population centers i.e. big cities and counties.
Take a look at the 2000 map. Bush carried only three "big" states: Texas, Florida and Ohio. Gore carried five: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan.
A popular vote system would drive the politicians to the big states and the big media markets. And we all know what kind of politics dominate big cities? The "fly-over" part of America would be ignored!
Would any politician go out to New Mexico or Iowa?
But if Iowa and New Mexico's electoral votes matter then politicans go out there.
In the end, politicans will never view all 50 states equally in terms of campaign value. But with the electoral college system, a mix of big states and small states will get visited.
(3) Changing the system would have unintended consequences like the ones mentioned and who knows what other ones. One scenario would be Florida-like recounts in all 50 states in a close election!! I'm sure imaginative people could come up with more.
In any case, the system has given a winner without popular vote victory very rarely (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) and the country did NOT fall apart. As the old saying goes: if it ain't broke why fix it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)