Presidential Bracketology After Debates II

July 30 debate participants
Marianne Williamson
Tim Ryan
Amy Klobuchar
Pete Buttigieg
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Beto O’Rourke
John Hickenlooper
John Delaney
Steve Bullock

July 31 debate participants
Michael Bennet
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julián Castro
Cory Booker
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Andrew Yang
Tulsi Gabbard
Jay Inslee
Bill de Blasio

So where do they stand now?

Biden's has a level of loyal support among those Obama loyalists and Democratic voters who fear a sharp turn to the left. This voting block is probably about ~ 40%? Of course, not all 40% will support Biden because they might view him as gaffe prone, his age, or preference for someone else to carry the mantle.

I wonder how large is the block that wants a leftward move as articulated by Sanders and Warren? I suspect this group is between ~ 40%? Of course, Sanders and Warren together do not account for all 40%. Some in this group may feel Sanders may talk a good game but might not be able to get things done as he can come off as cranky. Likewise, Warren may appeal to true believers but how will she play with more pragmatic voters?

Thus, where does the remaining ~ 20% of the Democratic voters want to go?

Where does Harris (~ 10%) draw her voters from? If she dropped out of the race would they go to Biden? Or would they go to Warren/Sanders?

The same question for Buttigieg (~5%). Where do they go if he drops out?

If you add the top 5 vote totals at the 8/6/2019 RCP poll averages, they account for almost 80% of the votes. The remaining 20% are spread out among the rest of the field. Where do they go? And what is the percentage of "don't know/undecided" voters?

I think the top tier top five hasn't changed.

The scramble will be for the best of the rest because the next debate will have higher requirements for inclusion of which only 7 (marked in bold below) have currently met.

Left regional (~35%)

1. Warren 
2. Sanders 
3. Booker 
4. Ryan 
5. Gillibrand 
6. de Blasio

Governance centrist regional (~34%)

1. Biden 
2. Klobuchar 
3. Delaney  
4. Hickenlooper 
5. Bennet 
6. Bullock
7. Inslee 

Unconventional regional (~7%)

1. Buttigieg 
2. Yang
3. Williamson

New left regional (~14%)

1. Harris
2. O'Rourke
3. Castro
4. Gabbard

Those above in italics have met one of the two criteria. 

Thus, if I had to select a "bakers dozen" to make the next debate stage, this would be the list:

1. Biden
2. Warren
3. Sanders
4. Harris
5. Buttigieg
6. Booker
7. O'Rourke
8. Yang
9. Castro
10. Klobuchar
11. Delaney
12. Gabbard
13. Bullock