Between US cable news, news from European news programs (Sky UK, France 24, and DW) streaming on YouTube, and checking out think tank web pages, have been trying to get a handle on the military objectives of the Russian invasion.
Prior to the invasion, the opinion seemed to be falling into two categories: (1) Russia won't invade or (2) the invasion would be limited perhaps to just the eastern part. Some experts described what the "go big" invasion would look like but didn't think it likely they would go that far.
As we all saw, Russia went all in with a multi-pronged invasion (see map 1).
Map 1 - possible end points of invasion plan
Objective 1 was to capture, kill, or force to flee the central government of Ukraine by seizing Kyiv.
Objective 2 was to cut the country in half by driving toward the Dnieper river and potentially trapping Ukrainian army units in the east of the country.
Objective 3 was to solidify control of the disputed regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Objective 4 was to connect Crimea (annexed in 2014) to Russia with a direct land corridor with a north-easterly invasion.
Objective 5 was to deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea by heading north-west out of Crimea and taking the coastal port of Udesa.
How far did the Russian ground forces get? See map 2.
Map 2 - state of the invasion as of March 29, 2022
Russian forces have stalled in the outskirts of Kyiv. The Ukraine government remains in charge and in place in Kyiv.
Objective 2?
Russian army has laid siege of Kharkiv but haven't advanced much beyond Kharkiv.
Objective 3?
Haven't seen much news from this region probably because Western news services aren't able to get here suggesting Russia has these areas under control.
Objective 4?
The siege of Mariupol has been the scene of tremendous destruction. If and when Russia takes control of the city, they will have their "land bridge" from Russia to Crimea.
Objective 5?
Russia has not reached Udesa and have gotten as far Kherson but does not appear able to advanced any further.
One unknown is the degree to which Russia can continue to sustain troop and equipment losses to achieve a revised limited set of aims.
On the other side, how much material resources can Ukraine continue to receive and how much military personnel do they have to effectively deploy them?
When the cost of war eventually gets too high for both sides then the two side might come to a deal of some kind. It does not appear that point has been reached. Ukraine realizes it will not be joining NATO or the EU anytime soon so it may have to make some concessions when the time for negotiation arrives. Ukraine may accept loss of territory but as long as they have a "stalemate" on the battlefield, they will not accept demilitarization. In 2014, when Crimea was annexed, Ukraine was in no position to militarily oppose the Russians so they had to sign a deal. Since 2014, they built up their army and it is paying off so far as they have extracted a high price from Russia in this war. They will want to continue to build up their forces so that Russia would not be tempted to restart the war to gain more territory.
As for Europe, NATO, and USA, they realize the line has to be drawn here so they will continue to supplies both military and economic aide to Ukraine because if Ukraine collapses the next target could be a NATO member.
#StandWithUkraine
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