What is the polling data saying?
California - Sanders is set to win, the question is whether anyone else will clear the 15% needed to snag some delegates. Biden needs to get over 15% and better yet 20%.
Texas - Sanders has a slim lead but it is within the margin of error and will be a key state to watch. Hence, Biden is getting Senator Amy and Mayor Pete to appear with him in a rally in Texas tonight. If this works, Biden gets the first down to keep the drive going.
North Carolina - Biden has a slim lead but it is within the margin of error and another key state to watch.
Virginia - the polling report at RCP is a bit out dated so it is hard to say what is going on there and another key state to watch
States Biden should win
- Alabama (52) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
- Arkansas (31) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
- Tennessee (64) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
- California (415) - polling data in favor of Sanders
- Colorado (67) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
- Maine (24) - no polling data but Sanders from nearby Vermont
- Massachusetts (91) - Warren's home state but will she beat out Sanders?
- Minnesota (75) - Klobuchar home state but will she beat out Sanders?
- Oklahoma (37) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
- Vermont (16) - no polling data but Sander's home state
- Utah (29) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
Unknown
- American Samoa (6) - Is it controlled by the Democratic establishment? If yes, Biden should win
- North Carolina (110) - close in the polls
- Texas (228) - close in the polls
- Virginia (99) - close in the polls
Bloomberg is a wild card. It would be terribly ironic if a multi-billionaire is the reason the Democrats win up with Sanders as the nominee an potential POTUS!