However, polling is an inexact science.
Check out this interview with Michael Barone who is one of the experts in looking at polls.
The Pew Research Center reports that only 9% of the people that it calls are responding to polls. That’s way down from historic levels, and it raises the question are those people representative of the population as a whole that they’re trying to sample? You know, one thing that polls can’t tell you is the characteristics of people who won’t be polled. So that raises some serious questions. Are we getting skewed samples? We know from the exit poll phenomenon over the last many cycles that the exit poll results tend to come in more Democratic than the actual vote does, and measured at the same precincts.
Since I've been voting in Presidential elections, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996 and 2008 were the elections where there was essentially no doubt who would win. The only question was what the ma…