California Electricity - what does 100% renewable mean?

Skinny version: 100% renewable sources for electrical generation is a good goal but there are some practical challenges to making it happen because of the variable nature of solar and wind production of electricity. In order to make it work, other more consistent renewable sources have to be developed, battery storage capacity dramatically increased, and as a final backstop traditional forms of electrical generation will probably have to be retained at some level. Below, an attempt to look at the numbers.

The California Independent System Operator's (ISO) mission as described on their web page: The ISO manages the flow of electricity across the high-voltage, long-distance power lines that make up 80 percent of California’s and a small part of Nevada’s grid. The nonprofit public benefit corporation keeps power moving to homes and communities.

One would figure this source would offer a realistic view of the California electrical system and how we are doing in terms of renewable sources of power and what the future might need to look like to get to 100% renewable by 2045.

Today's electrical demand isn't all that high due to relatively mild temperatures throughout the major metro areas in California. See the screen capture below:

The lowest demand for power was at 4AM this morning with 21,340 MW. The peak demand hasn't occurred though it is projected to occur in the early evening at 19:45 where demand may reach 32,700. In the screen capture, it reports the highest electrical demand ever occurred on July 24, 2006 when demand reached 50,270 MW during an epic heat wave.

The state is on track to hit the 50% goal by 2030 if today's grid performance is typical. In the screen capture below, it says the grid was receiving 44.4% of its electricity from renewable sources.

Solar is the main source of renewable power (79.1%) in this snapshot.

What do these graphs tell us?

Since I haven't followed the issue, here are the things that strike me:

#1 The high amount of solar power is a pleasant surprise. With so much sunshine in California, it isn't surprising that solar would be an option but I hadn't realized that it represents such a large portion of the electrical supply.

#2 The low amount of wind power is a disappointment. With all the hype about wind and solar, I would have thought the balance between the two would have been closer. As you can see solar has a 16-fold edge over wind at this snapshot. It varies from day-to-day and hour-to-hour but clearly solar far exceeds wind in California.

#3 The supply graph confirms what I have heard, wind power does vary considerably. It peaked at 3011 MW (1:05AM) and fell to 630 MW (12:35). I looked back at a few other days to see if this is pretty typical. Some days wind can get almost to 4000 MW (July 18) and got as low as 412 MW on that same date.

#4 The other incredibly obvious feature of the supply graph is that solar varies from 0 in the dark to 10,000+ MW during the day time and it can stay at that level for a handful of hours during peak sunshine.

#5 On today's screen capture graph, the "imports" reached 16.4% (4473MW). Looking at a few random days in previous months that is not unusual. On some days the imports can reach up to 10,000MW. This highlights one of the major challenges of electrical management: matching supply with demand. From a random look at some other days in the last few months, it seems California is routinely importing some amount of electricity. I wonder if this is a consequence of our reliance on solar? Unlike a natural gas plant or a nuclear plant that you ramp up and down to the amount you want, you can only take an educated guess at how much solar you might get from the various solar farms throughout the state. I would guess the Cal ISO would then try to make up the shortfall by spinning up gas/nuclear plants and if still short, they buy power from suppliers outside of California possibly at higher prices?

#6 There is a small item in the "current renewables" box called "Batteries (charging)." I would imagine on some occasions they can bleed off excess production into battery charging. One wonders how much battery capacity there is in the system right now? In the Today's Supply Outlook page further down (not shown in my screen captures) there is a box describing storage. Periodically power is drawn from storage (positive value) and charging into storage (negative value). A random look at a few days here and there from the past months show those values rarely exceed 100 MW.

UPDATE: According to EIA report "US Batter Storage Market Trends May 2018" Cal ISO has 130 MW of battery storage capacity (p. 5). They project that by 2050, in the USA there will be about ~ 40,000 MW of battery storage (p. 19) with ~ 708 MW as of 2017 (p. 1). They mention in California AB 2514 sets a goal of 1325 MW of storage (p. 19) by 2024. 

How do we get to 100% renewable by 2045?

Between electrical efficiency and population growth, will demand for electricity rise in the next few decades?

In the supply screen capture above it says available capacity is 43,055 MW. However, in practice, some percentage of capacity is probably off-line for maintenance and shut-off since expectations of demand might not require that capacity to even be on stand-by.

If today's current demand 28,000 MW is typical (it will get higher later in the day), let's figure by 2045, a typical mid-day demand rises to 42,000 MW, a 50% increase.

UPDATE: Went ahead and did a web search for information about projected growth in electricity usage. According to the Energy Information Agency (EIA) press release "Annual Energy Outlook 2018" on page 17, depending on economic growth rate assumptions, electricity use will rise somewhere between 0.5 to 1.5% per year. If we take the 1.5% per year and project out to 2045, we get to 41,854 MW. 

Let's say we have a mix of sources that is 100% renewable as follows during peak daylight hours
80% solar = 33,600 MW
5% wind = 2100 MW
15% everything else = 6300 MW

Today, we have 10,000 MW of solar. Thus, we need three times more solar.
Today, wind is contributing 630 MW so that would require a three-fold increase in wind farms.
Today, we get about 2000 MW from everything else; thus, we need three times more from those sources.

Of course, on a broiling summer day when everyone has their air conditioners running, the demand will be much higher so these three fold estimates are on the low end of what is needed. Cal ISO will want some spare capacity for those high demand situations.
 
But what about night time?

If the lowest demand at night is 28,000 MW (two-third of daylight), what is the supply mix?
solar = 0 MW
wind = 10,000 MW (if we assume we can get 5x more wind power at night versus the day time?)
everything else = 6300 MW (all the other forms of renewable are fairly steady producers)
deficit = 11,700 MW 

Additionally, there is a "shoulder" period of about 1-2 hours in the morning after sunrise and 1-2 hours before sunset when solar power hasn't reached 100% capability.

In the end, there will still need to be 10,000 to 20,000 MW of capacity that can be turned on/off quickly to make up for troughs in solar and wind electrical production.

Battery storage is one way but that is currently at only 100 MW. There will need to be a 100-fold increase just to get to the low end of what is needed.

Thus, will natural gas and nuclear plants be helping pick up the shortfall?

UPDATE: Let's take the lower end assumption of 0.5% growth in electricity per year that yields a demand of 32,036 MW by 2045.

80% solar = 25629 MW
5% wind = 1602 MW
15% everything else = 4805 MW 

Need 2.5X more solar, wind, and other sources to match demand with supply. 

Night low demand = 21,357 MW (assume 2/3 of day demand)
solar = 0 MW
wind = 8010 MW (if 5x more wind power at night than daytime)
everything else = 4805 MW
deficit = 8542 MW

In the end, there will still need to be 8000 to 16,000 MW of capacity that can be turned on/off quickly to make up for dips in solar and wind electrical production.

Argh - Powerpoint fail - lost narration after export to movie

One can record narration into a Microsoft Power Point for MAC presentation.

However, if you export the file into movie format so that it could be played on computers with no Powerpoint, the narration is lost.

Just discovered this while trying to do just that. As a result, am now conducting google searches to see if there is a work-around. But the first thing I found was this item in Microsoft Office that says exactly what I didn't want to read: Narration is not saved when you save a presentation as a movie.

UPDATE: Could not find any solutions on the internet. Fortunately, the project I was working on was fairly short and simple. I wound up doing everything in Keynote and that exports to movie with no problem.

Problem Solved: Can't retrieve Pubmed results on Endnote when off-campus

Many people use Endnote to generate reference lists for publications and other documents. I use it when I am on-campus without any problems. The other day I was off-campus trying to use it and couldn't retrieve any literature searches from Pubmed. I could visit Pubmed directly and search. However, if I wanted to retrieve items for my Endnote reference database, it came up empty.

I called Endnote technical support and they explained it was probably due to my PROXY settings.

When I am on-campus, I can visit Pubmed and when I find an article of interest I can click through to view the item. Many journal articles now can be seen by anyone with a computer anywhere but some items can only be seen if the webpage recognizes your institution. When I am on-campus, those webpages know I'm at UCLA and that our library has a license to view the article. When I am off-campus, those websites don't see my UCLA credentials and I can't see the item unless I configure my proxy settings. A proxy setting allows me to have my on-campus credentials even when I am off-campus accessing the internet.

The tech service representative said Endnote wants to connect to PubMed directly and the proxy settings could cause a connection problem. Thus, he said, I need to disable my proxy settings when I am off-campus to use the Endnote search and retrieve functions. If you know how to set the proxy setting then you will know how to disable them.

Briefly, follow your institution's guidelines for setting the proxy. Keep a file on your desktop describing that. When you need to disable it, in my case, I just unchecked the mark for "Automatic Proxy Configuration," hit okay, hit apply, and then reboot the computer.

I was able to search and retrieve via Endnote from off-campus.

When you want to restore your proxy settings, pull up that file and check the right box and enter the right information, hit okay, hit apply, and then reboot the computer.

CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing

The hot new technique in molecular biology is CRISPR/Cas9.

The URL has a longer form explanation with diagrams.

The really short description is as follows:

The CRISPR/Cas9 technique takes advantage of a particular way bacteria chop up foreign DNA. This mechanisms has been adapted to facilitate disruption of targeted sequences in model organisms such as mice and zebrafish.

Let's say one wants to disrupt gene P.

Research findings have identified rules that govern the location of the targeting such that one can design a short sequence of DNA that will bind to a specific target site within gene P. In the design, in addition to the target sequence, a guide sequence that will bind the Cas9 enzyme is included contiguously.

Thus, this sequence (1) binds to the target site on gene P and (2) permits the guide sequence to tether Cas9 to that target and Cas9 cuts the target DNA sequence.

After the sequence is cut, DNA repair enzymes enter the picture to fix the lesion. The repair is not perfect introducing some combination of sequence deletions or insertions. The exact nature of the repair is assessed by DNA sequencing technology to see if the desired mutation has been introduced.

This technology also permits the introduction of desired sequences into the disrupted gene in a modification of this procedure.

One can search the internet for many explanations and diagrams of this method.

Installing GNU Octave 3.8.0 on Mac OS 10.10.2

In the lab, I occasionally run Matlab scripts through Octave for some scientific calculations pertaining to my work on vitamin D. With a new desktop in the lab running OS 10.10 Yosemite, I had to reinstall Octave. The previous desktop was running 10.6 (snow leopard).

I fetched GNU Octave 3.8.0 from SourceForge and attempted to install. Unfortunately, the system didn't want to install it since it didn't come from the Apple App Store.

I opened the README.txt file in the install window and found this advice:
You may need to override Gatekeeper to allow installation of GNU Octave 3.8.0 on OSX 10.9 (Mountain Lion). You may find instructions about how to do this on this page: http://support.apple.com/kb/ht5290 in the section labeled "How to open an app from a unidentified developer and exempt it from Gatekeeper".

I figure OS 10.10 might have the same work around. Indeed, that was the case.

I opened up the recommended Apple support page.

Control-mouse clicked on the GNU Octave install icon and clicked "Open" which generated the dialog box as pictured in the Apple support page and clicked "Open" in that box and voila, the thing started to install.

There is a considerably more complicated set of instructions in Octave for MacOS X. I don't know if the results are the same or not but Octave is now running on my desktop using the simpler procedure.

Hope it helps you if you are in the same situation!

Technology: Motorola Atrix Phone Shut-Down Problem

I have a Motorola Atrix phone through ATT. A handful of months later, it was replaced by the Atrix II.

The phone has worked reasonably well. With any first generation device, it has some occasional buggy-ness. For instance, the phone would crash periodically much like the early days of the Windows operating system. But, overall, the Atrix has worked pretty well.

But, recently, my Atrix phone would power down by itself and attempt to restart but eventually powering down again during the restart cycle. If unattended to, it would keep doing this multiple times.

I was able to stop this behavior by interrupting the restart cycle by pushing the power button and doing a forced POWER OFF. The other thing I did was pop off the battery during the restart cycle which also stopped the repeated cycle. But eventually, the phone would have the same problem in a handful of hours and sometimes sooner.

A Google search of the problem seemed to indicate that many users think this problem is due to an APP on the phone and suggested removing apps to see if the problem went away. Another user thought it was the fingerprint reader.

The fingerprint reader idea seemed plausible since the power key is also the fingerprint identity detector. And if you compare the feature details of the Atrix II to the Atrix, the Atrix II dropped the fingerprint identity reader. One wonders if Motorola knew the fingerprint identity reader was buggy?

Anyway, I disabled the fingerprint reader feature and rely exclusively on the pin code unlock security system now. The phone hasn't gone into the power down restart power down cycle since I made the change a week ago.

So if you are having this problem on your Atrix phone, give the solution I attempted a try and see if that helps.

UPDATE: I still get the occasion power down power up recycle problem. I'm now deleting APPS that I downloaded within the last 6 months in the hopes that maybe its an errant app that is causing the problem. Of course, perhaps, there is some hardware bug in the phone. Anyway, we shall see.

UPDATE: The phone just ran a Android System update 2/13/2013 and the problem has gotten more pronounced. From this discussion forum, they suspect the WiFi could be a problem. I'm now only turning on the WiFi when I know I will actively use it. But it is striking how the Android System update has made the problem worse making me think it is some kind of software bug either with the system or its relationship to some of the apps I have onboard. We shall see if the WiFi shut off helps. Will also look at deleting more apps. This is "bleeding edge" technology I guess?

Technology: Digital Radio

We all know about digital TV. A little while ago, the USA made the transition to digital only signals. Thus, all the old analog TVs became non-functional unless one connected a digital converter box.

Little did I know until recently there is a transition to digital radio taking place.

For the moment, analog signals will continue to be transmitted with the digital signals.

This process is also occurring in many other countries with each region adopting their own technology standard.

I have bought one of these gadgets to hear the new technology in action.

Pros:
The sound quality is indeed excellent.
The text information on the display can be informative.
The parallel channels are fun to pick up.

Cons:
The device is somewhat expensive though I would imagine audiophiles with nice stereo setups would enjoy the options available.
Though the number of stations broadcasting with digital signals is expanding, in practice there are only of handful of stations I like to listen to. Some of them haven't gone digital or if they have, the signal strength is insufficient such that the reception defaults to analog.

Outlook:
Radio devices are quite durable, I wonder how often does the average person buy a new radio?

When one does enter the market for a new radio, unless one is an audiophile wanting top notch sound or someone interested in new tech gadgets (like me), the price differential is a barrier to buying a digital capable unit.

Given that much radio listening is done while doing housework, working in the garage, or puttering around the yard, the quality of sound a digital signal could generate may not be worth the extra expense.

Thus, digital radio will remain niche until the price comes down substantially.

Technology: The Challenges of Green Energy

The "PR" of Green Energy is very good: good jobs! clean energy! saves the US economy! saves the world!

Of course, most things are never quite as good as advertised.

Why would anyone want to throw cold water on Green Energy?

Well, the reality is that Green Energy bumps its head up against the laws of physics and it costs lots of greenbacks (dollars).

This item I found at the Cato web page is a reprint of an item in Forbes magazine.

Excerpt:
green energy is diffuse ... the entire state of Connecticut (that is, if Connecticut were as windy as the southeastern Colorado plains) would need to be devoted to wind turbines to power the city of New York.

Sad to say, the land footprint of a traditional power plant is much smaller than a wind farm. And building wind farms out in the ocean is very challenging and expensive. I wonder how many acres of solar panels would one need to match one good old fashioned natural gas power plant?

Excerpt:
it is unreliable. The wind doesn't always blow and the sun doesn't always shine when the energy is needed. We account for that today by having a lot of coal and natural gas generation on "standby" to fire-up when renewables can't produce.

The CAL-ISO manages the electricity needs of California and they have cool graphs of what is happening on a daily basis. As one can see there are peaks and troughs from the wind and solar portions of the electrical portfolio.

As long as solar and wind account for only a small portion of the electrical generation portfolio and the system resource curves and demand curves don't get too close, one probably can live with those peaks and troughs. But when the lines get close, the electrical grid will need a more stable source of electricity; hence, backup generation capacity from gas and coal.

Excerpt:
once the electricity is produced by the sun or wind, it cannot be stored because battery technology is not currently up to the task. Hence, we must immediately "use it or lose it."

Without battery technology, the peaks and troughs of wind and solar will need backup generation in case of a power crunch.

The Green Energy movement is hesitant to embrace nuclear power for philosophical reasons and the practical radiation risk as highlighted in the recent problems in Japan. But nuclear doesn't produce greenhouse gases so in that sense it can be included in the green category.

Unfortunately, nuclear, in addition to the radiation risks, does pose some financial challenges too. Because of the radiation risks, plant design has to be very good thus nuclear has very high initial capital costs which this item over at Reason discusses.

Excerpt:
While the nuclear industry in the United States has seen continued improvements in operating performance over time, it remains uncompetitive with coal and natural gas on the basis of price. This cost differential is primarily the result of high capital costs and long construction times. Indeed, building a nuclear power plant in the United States has cost, on average, three times as was originally estimated.

Am not in the energy business but clearly there are some very big challenges out there!

Technology: E-banking doesn't mean Error-free banking

In the old days, I would balance my checkbook. Invariably, I'd find a math error somewhere. Sometimes it would take quite some time to find the boo-boo.

Well, with e-banking, I don't balance my checkbook looking for every last penny.

BUT, I still take a look at the numbers and so far, as far as I know I haven't found any boo-boos... until ... yesterday!

A check was written for $49 but the account recorded the check as $549!

A quick online chat while browsing in the e-banking web page cleared it up quickly.

Thus, beware!

E-banking doesn't mean Error-free banking!!

Technology: Over the air digital TV - International Ice Hockey

International Ice Hockey Federation championships are underway. With OTA digital TV through Universal Sports TV, I'm watching live coverage of the Russia vs. Germany semi-final. After one period, Germany 1 Russia 0.

If you are in Los Angeles:
Charter 305
Cox 805
Time Warner 226
Verizon FIOS 464
NBC over-the-air 4.4

I'm using old school rabbit ears with a signal amplifier to watch the event!

Technology: Agilent vs. Invitrogen SYBR Mix

Took the same set of samples and ran them with Agilent SYBR (catalog #600548) and Invitrogen SYBR (catalog 11762-100).

The results:
Agilent SYBR: Ave. Ct=15.57, SD=0.30
Invitrogen SYBR: Ave. Ct=18.23, SD=0.93
dCt=2.66, Fold=6.33, P=6.9e-09

In fairness to Invitrogen, the primers had been optimized in the past using the Agilent reagent and from the spec sheets for the Invitrogen product, they recommend different extension temperatures than the Agilent mix.

For my next test, will compare Invitrogen vs. Fermentas (catalog #K0251).

UPDATE:
Invitrogen SYBR: Ave. Ct=17.45, SD=0.35
Fermentas SYBR: Ave. Ct=14.56, SD=0.25
dCt=2.89, Fold=7.41, P=5.0e-11

Disclaimer: merely reporting what happened; individual results may vary; all reagents were received at promotional pricing discounts; this blog post does not constitute any endorsement.

Technology: Got to tip your hat to those MIT students!

image source: http://space.1337arts.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/thumb.jpg

Balloon + digital camera + GPS cell phone + beer cooler + handwarmers = pictures of the Earth from high up.

Go here for their project web page. They hope to have a Youtube video of photos the camera took which was set to take pictures every 5 seconds.

Technology: "The Spy Factory" on PBS - NOVA

Fascinating documentary on the NSA, 9/11 and the challenges of trying to sift through the massive amounts of communication in the world to find information that may prevent a terrorist attack.

Technology: AOL Hometown has been shut down

I signed onto AOL back in 1994 and hosted my 1993 and 1997 road trips on their FTP space. I recently discovered the pages were gone!

Some searching uncovered this message:

Hometown Has Been Shutdown

Posted on Nov 6th 2008 1:30PM by Kelly Wilson

Dear AOL Hometown user,

We're sorry to inform you that as of Oct. 31, 2008, AOL® Hometown was shut down permanently. We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

Sincerely,

The AOL Hometown Team

More web searching revealed many irrate AOL Hometown users and various reports of attempts to recover the pages.

At the moment, I'm attempting to off-load my photos and html scripts by FTP.

Connect to the server ftp.hometown.aol.com. With your FTP program enter your user name and password. Off-load your files.

I'm finding the process to be extremely slow. I'm not sure if it is the FTP program I'm using or the bandwidth to the ftp servers at AOL are just slow.

Another option I found by web surfing is to use Way Back Machine. I was able to recover my HTML scripts but very few of my photos.

All the best to fellow AOL Hometown users in recovering your pages.

Technology is a tough business. AOL was once the king of the hill. Now, it is probably on its last legs. Don't think AOL execs will be going to Capitol Hill for a bail out!

Technology: Greenpeace Founder Supports Nuclear Energy

Patrick Moore was one of the co-founders of the Greenpeace movement. In this recent interview with Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria, he explained the reason he backs nuclear energy.

Excerpts:

Wind and solar energy are intermittent and thus unreliable. How can you run hospitals and factories and schools and even a house on an electricity supply that disappears for three or four days at a time? Wind can play a minor role in reducing the amount of fossil fuels we use, because you can turn the fossil fuels off when the wind is blowing. And solar is completely ridiculous. The cost is so high - California's $3.2 billion in solar subsidies is all just going into Silicon Valley companies and consultants. It's ridiculous.
.......
I know that France, which produces 80 percent of its electricity with nuclear, does not have high energy costs. Sweden, which produces 50 percent of its energy with nuclear and 50 percent with hydro, has very reasonable energy costs. I know that the cost of production of electricity among the 104 nuclear plants operating in the United States is 1.68 cents per kilowatt-hour. That's not including the capital costs, but the cost of production of electricity from nuclear is very low, and competitive with dirty coal. Gas costs three times as much as nuclear, at least. Wind costs five times as much, and solar costs 10 times as much.
.......
There are 32 nuclear plants on the drawing boards right now. Last year four applied for their licenses and this year we expect 10 or 11 more. That's just in the United States. There are hundreds of nuclear plants on the drawing boards around the world. This is a completely new thing: the term "'nuclear renaissance" didn't exist three years ago, and now it's a widely known term. Unfortunately, the environmental movement now is the primary obstacle here. If it weren't for their opposition to nuclear energy, there would be a lot fewer coal-fired power plants in the United States and other parts of the world today.

Technology: MacSpeech Dictate

Speech recognition software such as Dragon Speaking is very popular on the Windows platforms. However for many years, the Mac lagged behind in this area. Recently, MacSpeech Dictate came out. I am using it right now to dictate this blog post. So far it's pretty accurate. As a blogger, sometimes it's easier to compose by typing at the keyboard. However, if I have a lot of thoughts on my mind, it might be easier to talk to the computer and then clean it up later. So if you see some really long blog posts, it might be the result of my talking to my MacSpeech Dictate. Good night for now.

Technology: Skynet just around the corner?

Oh my, robot killing machines!

When I saw the article, immediately thought of Skynet from the Terminator movies!

HT: DR.

Technology: The real reason why airlines don't want you to use your cell phone

Saw this item.

Excerpt:

Part of the issue regarding stowing electronics at takeoff and landing, says Smith, has nothing to do with the fabled "interference," but rather the that that they can be dangerous as impromptu projectiles in the event of a sudden stop. Just ask the lady who decided to leave her tray table down and a full cup of Coke on it during my recent return flight from Vegas. Amazingly, it didn't stay where she wanted it to.
......
Smith wisely notes that one big reason for the cell phone rules is that the potential for danger of phones ensures that people won't demand to use them in flight. Most fliers, as we know, despise this idea, but serial chatters are far more, ahem, vocal about the issue. No one wants a war over technology at 35,000 feet. Those days, however, are already arriving in Europe, as onboard cellular systems have already been approved. Will the U.S. see the same? Smith feels it's inevitable, and he's probably right.

I have to say I've dropped my phone in my carry on bag without turning it off so I've always suspected I wasn't the only one and the likelihood that interference with the airplanes delicate electronics was overstated.

The idea of cell phones flying around the cabin during turbulence hadn't occurred to me but that makes sense.

And indeed, the thought of an entire plane yaking on their phones while in flight would be a dreadful thought! It feels weird when people talk on cell phones in the elevator!

Technology: 911 and Cell Phones

Saw this item in the Los Angeles Times.

The reporters studied the challenges of the 911 system having to field so many calls many of which come from cell phones.

Technology: Yikes, this is an R-rated blog!

Saw this item at Vintage Faith who has an "R-rated blog."

So I had to try the rating for myself!

Voila ...



Why?

This rating was determined based on the presence of the following words:

dead (19x)
pain (6x)
death (4x)
suicide (2x)
steal (1x)