TBO = The Big One 3/3 Super Tuesday

There is not a lot of polling data out there according to Real Clear Politics.

What is the polling data saying?

California - Sanders is set to win, the question is whether anyone else will clear the 15% needed to snag some delegates. Biden needs to get over 15% and better yet 20%.

Texas - Sanders has a slim lead but it is within the margin of error and will be a key state to watch. Hence, Biden is getting Senator Amy and Mayor Pete to appear with him in a rally in Texas tonight. If this works, Biden gets the first down to keep the drive going.

North Carolina - Biden has a slim lead but it is within the margin of error and another key state to watch.

Virginia - the polling report at RCP is a bit out dated so it is hard to say what is going on there and another key state to watch

States Biden should win

1. Alabama (52) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
2. Arkansas (31) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
3. Tennessee (64) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well

States Sanders should win

1. California (415) - polling data in favor of Sanders
2. Colorado (67) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
3. Maine (24) - no polling data but Sanders from nearby Vermont
4. Massachusetts (91) - Warren's home state but will she beat out Sanders?
5. Minnesota (75) - Klobuchar home state but will she beat out Sanders?
6. Oklahoma (37) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
7. Vermont (16) - no polling data but Sander's home state
8. Utah (29) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016

As you can see, there are six states where Sanders is likely to win and two where he will probably finish a strong second.

Unknown

1. American Samoa (6) - Is it controlled by the Democratic establishment? If yes, Biden should win
2. North Carolina (110) - close in the polls
3. Texas (228) - close in the polls
4. Virginia (99) - close in the polls

Biden will need to win these four to keep the race close. 

Bloomberg is a wild card. It would be terribly ironic if a multi-billionaire is the reason the Democrats win up with Sanders as the nominee an potential POTUS!

Round 4, South Carolina

Round 4 in the Democratic nomination battle.

In the first three rounds, the story has been Sanders.

By the numbers:

Iowa Caucus (the procedure adjusts for the voters second choice candidates)
Sanders won with 24.7% in the first round
But when adjusted for the caucus procedures Buttigieg got a slim delegate lead (13 vs. 12) because caucus takes into account voter's second choice candidates.

New Hampshire (straight up primary so one vote for one candidate)
Sanders won with 25.7% just beating out Buttigieg

Nevada Caucus (the procedure adjusts for the voters second choice candidates)
Sanders won with 34% and when adjusted for the caucus procedures he won easily (24 delegates to Biden’s 9).

South Carolina is up next and a primary state (straight up primary so one vote for one candidate)
Key questions: 
Will Biden win and by how much if he does? 
I think Biden needs a pretty large win to right the ship.
A +10% points would solidify his claim to be the comeback kid!
Clearing 40% would be even better
UPDATE: Biden cleared 40% with 48.4% and won by almost 30%

How many percent will Sanders get?
Sanders has a hard-core base of support that is around 25-30%. In 2016, he had his hard-core supporters AND the anybody but Clinton voter thus the reason for the hotly contested 2016 nomination race. Nevada was the first indication this season that maybe he is starting to break beyond his core voters. South Carolina will be another test. 
If his numbers drop back to Iowa and New Hampshire levels then he may really have a glass ceiling of support. 
UPDATE: Sanders came in at 19.9% the lowest of the first four races. IN states not known for left politics, Sanders appears to have a glass ceiling.

Will South Carolina voters decide it is a two-person race? 
If the third-place finisher is around 10% or less that means people are abandoning the lower tier candidates. Biden has the name ID and Sanders has the cash to compete widely in Super Tuesday. However, Buttigieg/Warren/Klobuchar are running out of money and won’t be able to run nation-wide in super Tuesday so they need to have a strong third and weaker than expected Biden/Sanders numbers in order to really remain viable. Steyer and Bloomberg are billionaires so they can stay as long as they want. But at some point they are businessmen and will eventually get out when they feel they have satisfied their egos enough.
UPDATE: Steyer came in at 11.3%, Buttigieg 8.2%, and Klobuchar 3.1% and all three have suspended their campaigns. 

Presidential Bracketology After Debates II

July 30 debate participants
Marianne Williamson
Tim Ryan
Amy Klobuchar
Pete Buttigieg
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Beto O’Rourke
John Hickenlooper
John Delaney
Steve Bullock

July 31 debate participants
Michael Bennet
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julián Castro
Cory Booker
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Andrew Yang
Tulsi Gabbard
Jay Inslee
Bill de Blasio

So where do they stand now?

Biden's has a level of loyal support among those Obama loyalists and Democratic voters who fear a sharp turn to the left. This voting block is probably about ~ 40%? Of course, not all 40% will support Biden because they might view him as gaffe prone, his age, or preference for someone else to carry the mantle.

I wonder how large is the block that wants a leftward move as articulated by Sanders and Warren? I suspect this group is between ~ 40%? Of course, Sanders and Warren together do not account for all 40%. Some in this group may feel Sanders may talk a good game but might not be able to get things done as he can come off as cranky. Likewise, Warren may appeal to true believers but how will she play with more pragmatic voters?

Thus, where does the remaining ~ 20% of the Democratic voters want to go?

Where does Harris (~ 10%) draw her voters from? If she dropped out of the race would they go to Biden? Or would they go to Warren/Sanders?

The same question for Buttigieg (~5%). Where do they go if he drops out?

If you add the top 5 vote totals at the 8/6/2019 RCP poll averages, they account for almost 80% of the votes. The remaining 20% are spread out among the rest of the field. Where do they go? And what is the percentage of "don't know/undecided" voters?

I think the top tier top five hasn't changed.

The scramble will be for the best of the rest because the next debate will have higher requirements for inclusion of which only 7 (marked in bold below) have currently met.

Left regional (~35%)

1. Warren 
2. Sanders 
3. Booker 
4. Ryan 
5. Gillibrand 
6. de Blasio

Governance centrist regional (~34%)

1. Biden 
2. Klobuchar 
3. Delaney  
4. Hickenlooper 
5. Bennet 
6. Bullock
7. Inslee 

Unconventional regional (~7%)

1. Buttigieg 
2. Yang
3. Williamson

New left regional (~14%)

1. Harris
2. O'Rourke
3. Castro
4. Gabbard

Those above in italics have met one of the two criteria. 

Thus, if I had to select a "bakers dozen" to make the next debate stage, this would be the list:

1. Biden
2. Warren
3. Sanders
4. Harris
5. Buttigieg
6. Booker
7. O'Rourke
8. Yang
9. Castro
10. Klobuchar
11. Delaney
12. Gabbard
13. Bullock

2020 Presidential Bracketology updated

Previously, had this bracket and just recently, there was the debate field of 20.

Thursday, June 27, 2019:
Marianne Williamson,
John Hickenlooper
Andrew Yang
Pete Buttigieg
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Kamala Harris
Kirsten Gillibrand
Michael Bennet
Eric Swalwell

Wednesday, June 26, 2019:
Bill de Blasio
Tim Ryan
Julián Castro
Cory Booker
Elizabeth Warren
Beto O’Rourke
Amy Klobuchar
Tulsi Gabbard
Jay Inslee
John Delaney

Thus, the updated brackets:

Left regional

1. Warren 
2. Sanders
3. Booker
4. Gillibrand
5. Ryan
6. de Blasio

I think Warren has gained some ground while Sanders is re-running the 2016 campaign. Admittedly, Sanders is better at it than in 2016 but the field is more crowded. The rest of this regional is lagging behind and the rankings are essentially interchangeable. 

Governance centrist regional

1. Biden
2. Klobuchar
3. Hickenlooper
4. Inslee
5. Delaney
6. Bennet

Within the regional itself, I don't think much has changed as Biden has a huge advantage as the former VP. However, his standing relative to the other candidates in the other regionals took a bit of a hit with the sharp attacks on him during the debate. As it is often said, his experience is both his advantage and disadvantage!

Unconventional regional

1. Buttigieg
2. Yang
3. Williamson

This regional has thinned out as others in this group haven't gotten enough support to get on the debate stage. The bright star of Buttigieg maybe fading out but reports are his fund raising numbers are spectacular so he maybe able to weather this rough patch. 

New left regional

1. Harris
2. Castro
3. O'Rourke
4. Gabbard
5. Swalwell

Harris has put some distance to the rest within this group. O'Rourke's stock is going down. Castro's ties to the Obama administration give him some street credibility but it might not be enough against the megawatt abilities of Harris.

Running but didn't make debate:

Bullock (governor of Montana)

Gravel (former senator from Alaska)

Messam (mayor of Miramar, Florida)

Moulton (congressman from Massachusetts)

Sestak (congressman from Pennsylvania)

2020 Presidential candidate bracketology?

With March Madness just concluded, it is time to attempt 2020 Presidential Candidate bracketology!

I think there are four broad category of candidates:

Governance centrists regional - Joe Biden would be a prime example of someone who has been in the system a long time. As a seasoned senator and vice-president, he has immediate name recognition and a measure of credibility as having "been there and done that." It is hard to say who else is running to fit that role. However, I'm listing the governors (Hickenlooper and Inslee) in this regional. Governors almost always have to be more moderate and make deals to get things done. Senator Klobuchar is the most "moderate" of the Democratic senators. If you look at her rating at 538, she has voted with the Trump position 30% of the time. That number is high compared to other senators running for President. She has pitched herself as from the Mid-West and more moderate compared to the coastal Senators also running. Delaney, a House member, has voted with Trump 34% of the time which is among the highest. This group fears that tacking too far to the left will allow Trump to win re-election in 2020.

Left regional - Sanders has high name ID from running in 2016 and a long history of being a gadfly with very left positions. He comes into this race with a lot of supporters from 2016. Warren seems be running in "the same lane" and also high ID from all the clashes with Trump. I put Gillibrand and Booker in this group but they could be in the "New Left" also as they are younger than Sanders and Warren. However, I think of the "New Left" as being candidates that tack Left but are also so new to the point of having THIN resumes on the Federal level. Gillibrand has been in the House and Senate since 2007 which isn't long but longer than the "New Left" candidates. Booker has administrative experience as a Mayor (2006-2013) and Federal level experience in the Senate since 2013. Tim Ryan has been in the House since 2003 that also provides some Federal level chops.

New Left regional - I distinguish the new left on the basis of the relatively short time they have been on the national scene and generally being younger candidates. Harris is probably the most charismatic of the group but has only been a Senator since 2017. Her challenge is to fully convince the hard left that she is left enough since she served in political law enforcement offices (California Attorney General and SF DA). O'Rourke is a social media phenomena for his fund raising in the losing effort to Ted Cruz. As a House member his profile previously wasn't high. As a social media phenomena, there could be the charge that he may lack substance behind the flare. Castro was an Obama era cabinet member and mayor. Gabbard and Swalwell are House members under 40 with very little profile. Of the senators in the "left" and "new left" regional, their vote with Trump percentages are among the lowest of all the senators according to 538.

Unconventional regional - Buttigieg has leveraged his unique biography with authentic appearances on TV to become the leader of the pack of the unconventional regional. The remainder are trying to get oxygen and it is an interesting mix of Yang (business) and his universal basic income proposal, Messam (mayor of mid-sized city like Buttigieg), Williamson (author described by some as "new age" and "spiritual adviser to Oprah), and Gravel (part-time libertarian, anti-intervention foreign policy).