Since Arizona is winner take all and Romney had a lead there, the other candidates didn't spend much effort to campaign there.
So let's say, Romney wins that one by 10%.
Michigan has most of its delegates allocated at the Congressional District level so it is a hotly contested race between Romney and Santorum.
So let's forecast a Romney win by 1% in state-wide total votes but with the delegate allocation essentially tied.
Figure Paul and Gingrich to trail by pretty wide margins behind the two front-runners.
Looking ahead to November, it is always hard to defeat a sitting President.
Ford lost in 1976 narrowly despite having the shadow of RN's resignation hanging over him.
Carter was actually quite competitive in 1980 until the very end when finally all the accumulated problems were too much for the electorate to bear.
Bush Senior lost in 1988 with a weak economy, an electorate turning toward problems at home, the…