My PJ wearing bottom lines:
Romney gets the win but not big enough to put the race away.
Paul is running for a cause so he will keep going no matter what.
If Santorum and Gingrich both land in the 20%, Santorum will have reason to stay in. But a third place showing below 20% means he should sit down with his team after Florida to decide whether to keep going or call it a valiant effort and go home.
Wow! I got the Gingrich number about right and was close on Santorum but clearly underestimated the shift to Romney! Paul's protest vote seemed to have peaked in Iowa and New Hampshire. I wonder if it is simply that those two early states like to be contrarian, whereas South Carolina (more conservative) and Florida (much larger) have an electorate that is actually voting for whom they think is a winner and less willing to make a protest vote?
Was listening to an interview with a pollster (Rasmussen?) on a podcast and he speculate…