Friday, January 20, 2012

Politics: South Carolina Primary Guesses

Gingrich 35%
Romney 34%
Paul 17%
Santorum 11%
Others 3%

Gingrich being from the South gets a bump and his jabs against President Obama and the media are crowd pleasers.

Paul will continue to get around 20%.  Sometimes a little more as in Iowa and New Hampshire and sometimes a little less like in South Carolina.

Santorum seems unable to repeat the Iowa success and notification that he "won" Iowa is too little too late.

Romney's railroad keeps chugging along but not exactly wowing the GOP.

Update:  CNN is posting a poll with Gingrich gaining a huge lead.  I'm a little skeptical that his surge is that large.  Clearly, he is getting a lot of movement because people think of him as a fighter and people are in a fighting mood.  But I think Romney will pick up some support from those who think Gingrich might be a little too over the top.  I predicted the 1% win for Gingrich late Friday night.  As I sit here in my PJs this Saturday morning, a larger win for Gingrich is probable but I don't think it will be double digits.

Update:  I clearly underestimated the shift to Gingrich and the hit Romney took over his Bain life and non-revealed tax returns.  Santorum's showing allows him to fight another day.  Paul's drop off suggests to me that perhaps many SC voters realized they didn't want to cast a protest vote.

Now, onward to Florida!  With the realization that this is a serious race, Paul's numbers should decline even further.  If Romney can arrest his decline, it will be Gingrich vs. Romney.  But if not, who would have guessed a few weeks back a Gingrich vs. Santorum race?  We shall see!

Here is the screen shot from the NYT for the results as of 7:26pm PST.


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