Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Politics: South Carolina Bounce Onto Florida

Real Clear Politics keeps running track of the major polls for Florida.

Right after Gingrich's big win in South Carolina, Insider Advantage and Rasmussen Reports reported on their 1/22 pool data (the day after the SC primary).  Gingrich was up 8 and 9 percentage points respectively.

The Florida primary will be held on January 31.

Will be interesting to see what the ebb and flow of the numbers are this week and over the weekend.

Is there going to be buyer's remorse and Gingrich bounce fades?
Will Romney rally or will he continue to decline?
If there are declines in Gingrich and/or Romney's numbers, will they go to Santorum or undecided?
What will the level of die hard protest voting be for Paul?

IA numbers for 1/22:
Gingrich 34%
Romney 26%
Paul 13%
Santorum 11%
Others/undecided 16%

RR numbers for 1/22:
Gingrich 41%
Romney 32%
Santorum 11%
Paul 8%
Others/undecided 8%

The numbers have changed! And there is enough time for it to change again before next Tuesday's voting!

RR numbers for 1/25

Romney 39%
Gingrich 31%
Santorum 12%
Paul 9%
Others/undecided 9%

IA numbers for 1/25:
Romney 40%
Gingrich 32%
Paul 9%
Santorum 8%
Others/undecided 11%

RCP's collection of polls from 1/26 to 1/28 have Romney leading from 8% to 16%.  Closer to 8 is more realistic.  Santorum and Paul aren't doing much with around 13% and 9% respectively.

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