Showing posts from March, 2012

Politics: Updated Delegate Math - Closing on 1144

Tonight is the Louisiana Primary and Santorum should win this one. Nonetheless, the math is not looking good for Santorum.

The assumptions below:
Santorum wins: Louisiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Nebraska, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas, South Dakota, Montana.
Romney wins: DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Utah.
The two more or less tie in all the other states.

Under these scenarios, Romney gets very close to the needed 1144. Thus, he just needs to over-perform in a few of the above projected locations and he gets over the 1144.

statedatedelegatesromneysantorumgingrichpaul56024614166Louisiana24-Mar46153100Wisconsin3-Apr42212100Maryland3-Apr37181900District of Columbia3-Apr1919000Missouri21-Apr52173500New York24-Apr95474800Pennsylvania24-Apr72234900Connecticut24-Apr28181000Rhode Island24-Apr1912700Delaware24-Apr1717000North Carolina8-May55272800Indiana8-May46232300West Virginia8-May31102100Nebraska15-May35112400Oregon15-May28141400Kentucky22-May45143100Arkansas2…

Politics: Public Policy and Bus Riding

Took the Culver City Rapid 6 Bus to work today. The bus was packed to standing room only.  In fact, at one of the stops, the driver could take no more people!

What are the costs of running a bus service?
1. Buying/leasing the buses
2. Paying the drivers
3. Paying the staff of the agency running the service
4. Repairing/maintaining the buses
5. Insurance costs for the agency
6. Compressed natural gas fuel costs

How is the service paid for?
1. Fares collected at the point-of-service
2. Subsidies by the tax-payers of which the majority do not use the bus

My 8 mile ride today cost me $1.

Does the $1 fare per person cover the cost of the service?

Probably not.

But are there some other benefits to bus usage aside from transportation?

There is the societal benefit of having fewer commuters on the road.  The 100 or so people who came on board the bus at various times are not in cars driving on the road.

Buses use relatively clean natural gas for fuel so there is the benefit of less pollution…

Politics: Updated Delegate Math - Can Santorum Win?

Romney holds onto a pretty comfortable lead in the delegate count even after the two losses in Alabama and Mississippi. Admittedly, it isn't much of a rallying cry: the math says I'm going to win! Nonetheless, as seen in the scenario below where Gingrich and Paul get out and Santorum starts winning at 2-to-1 levels in some states and 50-50 in others, Santorum doesn't surpass Romney. Team Santorum has to EXCEED the estimates below to surpass Romney.

In 1976, Reagan was behind Ford going into the convention and Ford got the nomination 1187 to 1070 on the first ballot. Thus, I don't think it is enough for Santorum to keep Romney below 1144 which is the "magic" number for the 2012 GOP Convention Nomination; he actually has to surpass him to win.

In order to do that, Santorum has to out-perform the scenarios listed below.

statedatedelegatesromneysantorumgingrichpaul49623614167Missouri17-Mar52173500Puerto Rico18-Mar2323000Illinois20-Mar69343500Louisiana24-Mar…

Politics: Celebrity Look-Alike???

Mitt Romney

Steve Lavin

What do you think?

Mitt Romney and Steve Lavin as twins, har har!  Yup, only here at RR can you get such amazing observations about the political scene (not!)!!

I have noticed the media often picks the photos for their news stories where the person is "in action" or something and it is often with a slightly goofy look.

Maybe that will be a future feature of this blog:  finding examples of this phenomena?

Politics: Its another primary night

I posted a scenario of delegate allocation earlier.

3 states and 1 territory will be hosted events.

In order for the stop Romney forces to have any chance, they have to out collect delegates by a 2-to-1 margin.

Polling data in Alabama and Mississippi,  indicate that Romney is holding his own.  If that is indeed the case, the anyone-but-Romney forces may not get the 2:1 margin in delegates they need to stop him.

There is no data on Hawaii or American Samoa which are both caucuses and thus hard to poll.  However, if the Romney organization has any presence there and the non-Romney's have none, then it is likely Romney will pick up at least half if not all those delegates.

After tonight's numbers come in, I'll have to re-jig the scenario of delegate allocation I published earlier and see if the Romney nomination train has been slowed down at all.

UPDATE:  As expected Romney did not win Alabama or Mississippi and he picked up about 1/3 of the delegates to be had in the 4 loca…

Politics: Delegate Math After March 10

The above screen grab is the projected delegate allocations from the March 10 events from RCP.

Romney got 32 while Santorum got 33.

In basketball terminology, Santorum can't afford to trade baskets with Romney.  At some point sooner rather than later, he needs to score points AND play defense to cut into Romney's lead.

March 13 is Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii and American Samoa.

Clearly Romney would want to win all four of these races to put the nomination race away but the delegate math says if he splits them with Santorum, he retains his lead and the clock continues to tick down on Santorum.

Non-profit of the Month: March 2012 -

In the years I've been posting non-profit of the month, there have been groups that have appeared multiple times. However, this will be the first time an organization will have a back-to-back-to-back appearance. 

Think of the schools you have attended: for me, it was Micheltorena Street Elementary, Thomas Starr King Junior High and John Marshall High School.

See if the schools you went to have projects. Or think of the schools your kids, nephews and nieces go to. Check if their schools have projects.

Hope you will give to support our students in our schools!

World: Kony 2012

In 2007, I participated in an event hosted by Invisible Children called Displace Me.

Sadly, it is now 2012, and the problems in Uganda remain.

This issue has been recently highlighted by the viral video Kony 2012.

Our pastor has shared the following story on a few occasions:
You see lots of injured people in the river.  Some in your group will try to get the people out of the water and bring them to land and tend to their injuries.  This impulse is compassion.  Some in your group will want to go up river and find out who is harming these people and throwing them in to water and stop these people.  This impulse is justice.

Lord, may compassion and justice be done in this situation.

Politics: GOP Delegate Math - Can Santorum Win? Has Romney Closed the Deal?

Am using the information at RCP.

1144 delegates are needed to gain the nomination.

Is the race over?

Well, it depends on your assumptions about the race going forward.

Assumptions very favorable to Santorum in the analysis below:
1) Anti-Romney vote consolidates behind Santorum (Gingrich may eventually get out but Paul is not)
2) Santorum wins 2/3 of delegates in state friendly to him (more conservative) with proportional allotments
3) Santorum wins 1/2 of delegates in closely contested states with proportional allotments
4) Romney wins 2/3 of delegates in locations friendly to him (Northeast and purple states) with proportional allotments
5) Some of the "winner-take-all" are split between winner take all by district and statewide and since I'm not a political professional, I don't know how that actually shakes out in the distribution so I treat them as proportional assuming Santorum would win conservative rural districts and Romney wins less conservative urban/subur…

Politics: Super Tuesday for GOP

Alaska, George, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia are hosting caucuses and primaries on Tuesday 6 March.

RCP has polling data for Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia.

Ohio and Tennessee are too close to call between Santorum and Romney.

Georiga is Gingrich's home state so there the only question is how much he will win by.

Virginia is a Romney win since only he and Paul are on the ballot due to failure of the other candidates to get organized enough to get on the ballot.

Figure Massachusetts (Romney home state) and Vermont will be in the Romney win column.

So what will happen in Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and Oklahoma?

Santorum probably wins the conservative Oklahoma voters.  Romney takes Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota.

Final forecast:
Gingrich:  Georgia
Santorum: Oklahoma
Romney: Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia

If Romney is finally getting the big momentum, he takes Ohio and Tennessee.

Most likely, it will…