Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Politics: Updated Delegate Math - Can Santorum Win?

Romney holds onto a pretty comfortable lead in the delegate count even after the two losses in Alabama and Mississippi. Admittedly, it isn't much of a rallying cry: the math says I'm going to win! Nonetheless, as seen in the scenario below where Gingrich and Paul get out and Santorum starts winning at 2-to-1 levels in some states and 50-50 in others, Santorum doesn't surpass Romney. Team Santorum has to EXCEED the estimates below to surpass Romney.

In 1976, Reagan was behind Ford going into the convention and Ford got the nomination 1187 to 1070 on the first ballot. Thus, I don't think it is enough for Santorum to keep Romney below 1144 which is the "magic" number for the 2012 GOP Convention Nomination; he actually has to surpass him to win.

In order to do that, Santorum has to out-perform the scenarios listed below.

state date delegates romney santorum gingrich paul
496 236 141 67
Missouri 17-Mar 52 17 35 0 0
Puerto Rico 18-Mar 23 23 0 0 0
Illinois 20-Mar 69 34 35 0 0
Louisiana 24-Mar 46 15 31 0 0
Wisconsin 3-Apr 42 21 21 0 0
Maryland 3-Apr 37 18 19 0 0
District of Columbia 3-Apr 19 19 0 0 0
New York 24-Apr 95 47 48 0 0
Pennsylvania 24-Apr 72 23 49 0 0
Connecticut 24-Apr 28 18 10 0 0
Rhode Island 24-Apr 19 12 7 0 0
Delaware 24-Apr 17 17 0 0 0
North Carolina 8-May 55 27 28 0 0
Indiana 8-May 46 23 23 0 0
West Virginia 8-May 31 10 21 0 0
Nebraska 15-May 35 11 24 0 0
Oregon 15-May 28 14 14 0 0
Kentucky 22-May 45 14 31 0 0
Arkansas 22-May 36 11 25 0 0
Texas 29-May 155 51 104 0 0
California 5-Jun 172 86 86 0 0
New Jersey 5-Jun 50 25 25 0 0
South Dakota 5-Jun 28 9 19 0 0
Montana 5-Jun 26 8 18 0 0
New Mexico 5-Jun 23 7 16 0 0
Utah 26-Jun 40 40 0 0 0
total 1096 925 141 67

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