Politics: Updated Delegate Math - Can Santorum Win?

Romney holds onto a pretty comfortable lead in the delegate count even after the two losses in Alabama and Mississippi. Admittedly, it isn't much of a rallying cry: the math says I'm going to win! Nonetheless, as seen in the scenario below where Gingrich and Paul get out and Santorum starts winning at 2-to-1 levels in some states and 50-50 in others, Santorum doesn't surpass Romney. Team Santorum has to EXCEED the estimates below to surpass Romney.

In 1976, Reagan was behind Ford going into the convention and Ford got the nomination 1187 to 1070 on the first ballot. Thus, I don't think it is enough for Santorum to keep Romney below 1144 which is the "magic" number for the 2012 GOP Convention Nomination; he actually has to surpass him to win.

In order to do that, Santorum has to out-perform the scenarios listed below.

state	date	delegates	romney	santorum	gingrich	paul
			496	236	141	67
Missouri	17-Mar	52	17	35	0	0
Puerto Rico	18-Mar	23	23	0	0	0
Illinois	20-Mar	69	34	35	0	0
Louisiana	24-Mar	46	15	31	0	0
Wisconsin	3-Apr	42	21	21	0	0
Maryland	3-Apr	37	18	19	0	0
District of Columbia	3-Apr	19	19	0	0	0
New York	24-Apr	95	47	48	0	0
Pennsylvania	24-Apr	72	23	49	0	0
Connecticut	24-Apr	28	18	10	0	0
Rhode Island	24-Apr	19	12	7	0	0
Delaware	24-Apr	17	17	0	0	0
North Carolina	8-May	55	27	28	0	0
Indiana	8-May	46	23	23	0	0
West Virginia	8-May	31	10	21	0	0
Nebraska	15-May	35	11	24	0	0
Oregon	15-May	28	14	14	0	0
Kentucky	22-May	45	14	31	0	0
Arkansas	22-May	36	11	25	0	0
Texas	29-May	155	51	104	0	0
California	5-Jun	172	86	86	0	0
New Jersey	5-Jun	50	25	25	0	0
South Dakota	5-Jun	28	9	19	0	0
Montana	5-Jun	26	8	18	0	0
New Mexico	5-Jun	23	7	16	0	0
Utah	26-Jun	40	40	0	0	0
total			1096	925	141	67