Monday, March 05, 2012

Politics: Super Tuesday for GOP

Alaska, George, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia are hosting caucuses and primaries on Tuesday 6 March.

RCP has polling data for Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia.

Ohio and Tennessee are too close to call between Santorum and Romney.

Georiga is Gingrich's home state so there the only question is how much he will win by.

Virginia is a Romney win since only he and Paul are on the ballot due to failure of the other candidates to get organized enough to get on the ballot.

Figure Massachusetts (Romney home state) and Vermont will be in the Romney win column.

So what will happen in Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and Oklahoma?

Santorum probably wins the conservative Oklahoma voters.  Romney takes Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota.

Final forecast:
Gingrich:  Georgia
Santorum: Oklahoma
Romney: Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia

If Romney is finally getting the big momentum, he takes Ohio and Tennessee.

Most likely, it will be a split decision with Santorum taking one and Romney taking the other and the struggle goes onward.

UPDATE:  A google search eventually led me to a professional pundit's analysis.  My guesses mostly track with Nate Silver's professional opinion.  He has Santorum taking Tennessee and Romney taking Ohio.  He also predicts ties for Alaska and North Dakota.

UPDATE:
Gingrich:  Georgia
Santorum:  Oklahoma, Tennessee, North Dakota
Romney: Massachusettes, Vermont, Virginia
Still counting:  Ohio (close with Santorum lead), Idaho (early Romney lead), Alaska (no data)
Bottom line:  Romney racks up delegates but hasn't delivered the knockout.


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