Saturday, March 24, 2012

Politics: Updated Delegate Math - Closing on 1144

Tonight is the Louisiana Primary and Santorum should win this one. Nonetheless, the math is not looking good for Santorum.

The assumptions below:
Santorum wins: Louisiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Nebraska, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas, South Dakota, Montana.
Romney wins: DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Utah.
The two more or less tie in all the other states.

Under these scenarios, Romney gets very close to the needed 1144. Thus, he just needs to over-perform in a few of the above projected locations and he gets over the 1144.


state date delegates romney santorum gingrich paul
560 246 141 66
Louisiana 24-Mar 46 15 31 0 0
Wisconsin 3-Apr 42 21 21 0 0
Maryland 3-Apr 37 18 19 0 0
District of Columbia 3-Apr 19 19 0 0 0
Missouri 21-Apr 52 17 35 0 0
New York 24-Apr 95 47 48 0 0
Pennsylvania 24-Apr 72 23 49 0 0
Connecticut 24-Apr 28 18 10 0 0
Rhode Island 24-Apr 19 12 7 0 0
Delaware 24-Apr 17 17 0 0 0
North Carolina 8-May 55 27 28 0 0
Indiana 8-May 46 23 23 0 0
West Virginia 8-May 31 10 21 0 0
Nebraska 15-May 35 11 24 0 0
Oregon 15-May 28 14 14 0 0
Kentucky 22-May 45 14 31 0 0
Arkansas 22-May 36 11 25 0 0
Texas 29-May 155 51 104 0 0
California 5-Jun 172 86 86 0 0
New Jersey 5-Jun 50 25 25 0 0
South Dakota 5-Jun 28 9 19 0 0
Montana 5-Jun 26 8 18 0 0
New Mexico 5-Jun 23 11 12 0 0
Utah 26-Jun 40 40 0 0 0
total 1107 896 141 66

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