Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Politics: Predictions for AZ and MI

Have usually been wrong but we keep on guessing!

Since Arizona is winner take all and Romney had a lead there, the other candidates didn't spend much effort to campaign there.

So let's say, Romney wins that one by 10%.

Michigan has most of its delegates allocated at the Congressional District level so it is a hotly contested race between Romney and Santorum.

So let's forecast a Romney win by 1% in state-wide total votes but with the delegate allocation essentially tied.

Figure Paul and Gingrich to trail by pretty wide margins behind the two front-runners.


UPDATE:







Looking ahead to November, it is always hard to defeat a sitting President.

Ford lost in 1976 narrowly despite having the shadow of RN's resignation hanging over him.

Carter was actually quite competitive in 1980 until the very end when finally all the accumulated problems were too much for the electorate to bear.

Bush Senior lost in 1988 with a weak economy, an electorate turning toward problems at home, the Perot phenomena and the sense the President had lost touch with the people.

At the moment, President Obama does not have any scandal hanging over his presidency though the "Fast and Furious" investigation remains ongoing.

The economy that sank Carter and Bush 41 remains shaky for Team Obama but at the moment, they probably still have just enough support to squeak by.  However, between now and November, if gas prices continue to rise and remain very high, that will be a problem for the White House, fair or  not.  Likewise, if the employment figures move in the wrong direction, confidence in the Administration could erode.  And of course, if the economy recovers, their fortunes rise with good economic stats.

Finally, the Obama team has to be weary of being seen as out of touch with the people.

The Keystone Pipeline decision seemed very much for political expediency to curry favor with one group of supporters and pushing the decision past election day where they will probably approve the pipeline to please the other group of supporters.

The insurance regulations being forced upon Catholic/religious institutions reflects a certain disregard for certain segments of the public.  The media frames the issue as health care and contraceptives.  However, if the public begins to see more clearly the religious freedom aspect and the forcing of religious entities to support abortion inducing drugs the Administration will be seen as out of touch.  I find it very troubling that the media focuses on the contraception part and IGNORES the abortion inducing drug part of the regulation.

Finally, though the US financial problems are not of the scale of Greece, the direction of the US debt situation is headed toward Greece-like stats.  Yet, the Administration seems unable to face the reality that something needs to be done about the big drivers of the debt:  Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.  Instead, they rather score political points then deal with the problem.

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