Thursday, January 19, 2012

Politics: Wow, things are happening fast ...

A few days ago, it looked like the HMS Romney was sailing easily to victory.

But with the questions about what Bain Capital was about and his tax returns, Team Romney is bailing water.

Santorum's bounce from Iowa has clearly faded and the endorsement of an evangelical group over the weekend seems to have made little difference in his declining fortunes.  Look for him to bail out after South Carolina.  Who will he endorse?

Huntsman saw the writing on the wall and bailed out and endorsed Romney.

Perry saw the writing on the wall and bailed out and endorsed Gingrich.

Gingrich is gaining ground because people love a fighter and in debates he hits POTUS with one hand and the media with the other and the GOP undecideds are eating it up.  But just as this is happening, ABC News lands a tell-all interview with the ex-wife.  Will this make a difference?

Meanwhile, Paul marches on getting 15-20% of the vote because his two note message, cut spending and bring the troops home, draws those not happy with either party.

Pundits look for analogies to other campaigns and the fit is never perfect but how about this one? 

Romney is Bush 41, a decent and honorable guy who is just a little slow footed when it comes to rough and tumble politics and not too alert to the optics of how he comes across.

Gingrich is Bill Clinton, brilliant, charismatic but volatile. 

Paul is Ross Perot, absolutely unelectable but tapping into major concerns in the electorate.

Clinton won the Presidency in 1992.  Will Gingrich win the GOP nomination in 2012?

Anyway, tonight's debate could be huge:
Gingrich will have to answer about the ex-wife interview, keep up the good jabs against President Obama and the media and avoid over-the-top snark against Romney.
Romney needs to defend Bain Capital, explain his tax returns and regain the initiative.

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