Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Politics: New Hampshire Primary Predictions

Like any other blogger in pajamas, I can make predictions about the elections!

New Hampshire is somewhat different than Iowa for various reasons:
  • The primary system allows more casual voters to participate compared to the more activist participation rules of a caucus of Iowa.  Thus, it is a more moderate electorate.
  • I think New Hampshire allows non-registered Republican voters to cross over and vote in the primary.  Thus, liberal and independent non-Republican voters can boost certain candidates.
  • Historically, New Hampshire voters almost have an anti-Iowa mood as shown in recent history in recent contested GOP election cycles.
Iowa winner
1980 - Bush
1988 - Dole
1996 - Dole
2000 - Bush
2008 - Huckabee
2012 - Romney/Santorum (essentially it was a tie)

New Hampshire winner
1980 - Reagan
1988 - Bush
1996 - Buchanan
2000 - McCain
2008 - McCain
2012 - ?

I think the unique features of NH probably helps Huntsman the most.  Also, Huntsman camped out in New Hampshire much like Santorum worked Iowa hard and so he will get a good amount of the not-Romney vote within the Republicans and he should draw a decent amount of the moderate/independent voters that can cross into the voting.
Paul will consistently draw around 20% of the vote because of his slash Washington spending (drawing libertarian and some conservatives supporters) and isolationist foreign policy (a mix of liberal, independent and libertarians who all share in common that particular viewpoint).  Am guessing in NH he might get a bit more than the 21% he got in Iowa.

Santorum got a bounce out of Iowa but I don't think it will be enough to overcome how far down he was.  But he will get the more conservative not-Romney vote.

My guess is that Gingrich is going to fade.

My guts tell me Romney will win but not get the "knock-out" their campaign is hoping for.

My predictions:
Romney 34%
Paul 23%
Huntsman 18%
Santorum 15%
Gingrich 8%
Others 2%

UPDATE:  My predictions underestimated (5.4%) Romney's vote totals and over estimated Santorum's support (5.7%). Pretty much on target for Paul, Huntsman and Gingrich.


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