Politics: New Hampshire Primary Predictions
New Hampshire is somewhat different than Iowa for various reasons:
- The primary system allows more casual voters to participate compared to the more activist participation rules of a caucus of Iowa. Thus, it is a more moderate electorate.
- I think New Hampshire allows non-registered Republican voters to cross over and vote in the primary. Thus, liberal and independent non-Republican voters can boost certain candidates.
- Historically, New Hampshire voters almost have an anti-Iowa mood as shown in recent history in recent contested GOP election cycles.
New Hampshire winner
I think the unique features of NH probably helps Huntsman the most. Also, Huntsman camped out in New Hampshire much like Santorum worked Iowa hard and so he will get a good amount of the not-Romney vote within the Republicans and he should draw a decent amount of the moderate/independent voters that can cross into the voting.
Santorum got a bounce out of Iowa but I don't think it will be enough to overcome how far down he was. But he will get the more conservative not-Romney vote.
My guess is that Gingrich is going to fade.
My guts tell me Romney will win but not get the "knock-out" their campaign is hoping for.
UPDATE: My predictions underestimated (5.4%) Romney's vote totals and over estimated Santorum's support (5.7%). Pretty much on target for Paul, Huntsman and Gingrich.