Politics: Battle for White House 2012

The RCP Battle for White House electoral college map has President Obama at 221 and Gov. Romney at 191 with 10 states in the toss up category.
People have been wondering how come the President is still ahead despite the dreadful economy?

I think there are a number of reasons:

1. Unhappiness with a sitting President has to be very high before the voters will make a change.

I was too young to vote in 1980 but my impression was that President Carter really didn't see support evaporate until very late in the election season. In 1992, the three-way race made President Bush's re-election chances even more difficult. If it was a traditional two-man race, he would have still lost but I suspect it would have been more competitive. In 2004, many were unhappy with President Bush 43 but not enough to vote him out though the election was close.

2. There is no question that President Obama still has a lot of good will because of the historic nature of being the first President with African ancestry.

In 2008, a lot of people really did want to believe in "hope and change" and so there continues to be the desire among many to see him be successful. In 1992, President Bush was seen as Reagan's third term so the good will was long gone. In 2004, though Bush 43 was unpopular among many, he retained good will among many for his leadership post 9-11.

3. Gov. Romney though quite gifted with many skills and abilities, connecting with the common voter has not been one of them.

Anyone who gets as far as being the nominee of a major part to be president has to have some political talent.  Nonetheless, some just have more of that mystical ability to connect with the voters. In my adult  life, Reagan and Clinton were probably the most gifted in connecting with people.  Bush 41 and Bush 43 were elected despite some shortcomings.

President Obama won in 2008 with a combination of his political gifts and the confluence of expectations (albeit unrealistic), poor economy and an old (though honorable) opponent.  As he faces 2012, some of those things still work in his favor but some against him. Thus, this election will either be 2004 or 1980. If the economy perks up even a little bit more, President Obama will probably be re-elected in a narrow win much like President Bush 43 did in 2004. However, if the economy slips back, there will be a late break toward Gov. Romney and probably a pretty early call on election night in Romney's favor.