TBO = The Big One 3/3 Super Tuesday

There is not a lot of polling data out there according to Real Clear Politics.

What is the polling data saying?

California - Sanders is set to win, the question is whether anyone else will clear the 15% needed to snag some delegates. Biden needs to get over 15% and better yet 20%.

Texas - Sanders has a slim lead but it is within the margin of error and will be a key state to watch. Hence, Biden is getting Senator Amy and Mayor Pete to appear with him in a rally in Texas tonight. If this works, Biden gets the first down to keep the drive going.

North Carolina - Biden has a slim lead but it is within the margin of error and another key state to watch.

Virginia - the polling report at RCP is a bit out dated so it is hard to say what is going on there and another key state to watch

States Biden should win

1. Alabama (52) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
2. Arkansas (31) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well
3. Tennessee (64) - no polling data but a southern state where Biden should do well

States Sanders should win

1. California (415) - polling data in favor of Sanders
2. Colorado (67) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
3. Maine (24) - no polling data but Sanders from nearby Vermont
4. Massachusetts (91) - Warren's home state but will she beat out Sanders?
5. Minnesota (75) - Klobuchar home state but will she beat out Sanders?
6. Oklahoma (37) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016
7. Vermont (16) - no polling data but Sander's home state
8. Utah (29) - no polling data but Sanders won easily in 2016

As you can see, there are six states where Sanders is likely to win and two where he will probably finish a strong second.

Unknown

1. American Samoa (6) - Is it controlled by the Democratic establishment? If yes, Biden should win
2. North Carolina (110) - close in the polls
3. Texas (228) - close in the polls
4. Virginia (99) - close in the polls

Biden will need to win these four to keep the race close. 

Bloomberg is a wild card. It would be terribly ironic if a multi-billionaire is the reason the Democrats win up with Sanders as the nominee an potential POTUS!

Round 4, South Carolina

Round 4 in the Democratic nomination battle.

In the first three rounds, the story has been Sanders.

By the numbers:

Iowa Caucus (the procedure adjusts for the voters second choice candidates)
Sanders won with 24.7% in the first round
But when adjusted for the caucus procedures Buttigieg got a slim delegate lead (13 vs. 12) because caucus takes into account voter's second choice candidates.

New Hampshire (straight up primary so one vote for one candidate)
Sanders won with 25.7% just beating out Buttigieg

Nevada Caucus (the procedure adjusts for the voters second choice candidates)
Sanders won with 34% and when adjusted for the caucus procedures he won easily (24 delegates to Biden’s 9).

South Carolina is up next and a primary state (straight up primary so one vote for one candidate)
Key questions: 
Will Biden win and by how much if he does? 
I think Biden needs a pretty large win to right the ship.
A +10% points would solidify his claim to be the comeback kid!
Clearing 40% would be even better
UPDATE: Biden cleared 40% with 48.4% and won by almost 30%

How many percent will Sanders get?
Sanders has a hard-core base of support that is around 25-30%. In 2016, he had his hard-core supporters AND the anybody but Clinton voter thus the reason for the hotly contested 2016 nomination race. Nevada was the first indication this season that maybe he is starting to break beyond his core voters. South Carolina will be another test. 
If his numbers drop back to Iowa and New Hampshire levels then he may really have a glass ceiling of support. 
UPDATE: Sanders came in at 19.9% the lowest of the first four races. IN states not known for left politics, Sanders appears to have a glass ceiling.

Will South Carolina voters decide it is a two-person race? 
If the third-place finisher is around 10% or less that means people are abandoning the lower tier candidates. Biden has the name ID and Sanders has the cash to compete widely in Super Tuesday. However, Buttigieg/Warren/Klobuchar are running out of money and won’t be able to run nation-wide in super Tuesday so they need to have a strong third and weaker than expected Biden/Sanders numbers in order to really remain viable. Steyer and Bloomberg are billionaires so they can stay as long as they want. But at some point they are businessmen and will eventually get out when they feel they have satisfied their egos enough.
UPDATE: Steyer came in at 11.3%, Buttigieg 8.2%, and Klobuchar 3.1% and all three have suspended their campaigns. 

Star Trek Short Treks and Picard

Saw all the live action Short Treks for season 2.

Very much enjoyed the Spock-Number One focused "Q&A."

Thought "The Trouble with Edward" was over the top. Don't mind playing some story lines for laughs but that was too much to take.

The Pike and Cadet test of character in "Ask Not" was wonderful in such a short package.

"Children of Mars" was a very moving story within the story of the Synth attack of Mars that is part of the backstory for Picard.

Will eventually get around to seeing the two animated ones.

Meanwhile, have seen episodes 1-2-3 of Picard.

Very different approach than Discovery. Discovery's non-stop action is in contrast to the slower paced Picard. It is true to Picard in his near the end of his days situation. He is not doing action hero stunts at his age! But his conviction to stand up and do something remains strong: the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak...

We have been treated to some short dream sequence bits with Brent Spiner's Data. Wonderful stuff.

Jonathan Del Arco appears as Hugh in episode 3 and will be seeing more of him in the episode ahead I'm sure!

Of the new cast members, too bad we probably won't be seeing much more of Picard's fiercely loyal Romulan winery-house-body guard staffers Laris and Zhaban. Really enjoyed them and their humor and drama.

Bit by bit, we have been introduced to Picard's new team. Jurati was first up as the expert on synthetic life forms. Musiker is Picard's estranged top aide from his days as an admiral. Loved the call back to Vasquez Rock. They even simply call the place by its real name! In episode 3, we meet the pilot Rios. Each character has been sketched out with their "issues" and strengths that will be filled out in the episodes to come. Thus, far they are well acted and will be interested to see how they develop in the remaining episodes.

Meanwhile, we have met the deliciously (perhaps a bit over the top) wicked bad guys: Narek, Rizzo, and Oh. You would think Star Fleet would be better at counter-intelligence! On the other hand, maybe the more things change the more they stay the same. Check out Malcolm Gladwell's podcast episode of how a Cuban spy operated in Washington DC for years! Rooting out the mole isn't always so easy.

And of course, at the center of the story is Dahj/Soji. It is unfolding out as a mystery: what is she looking for? are there more of her kind? why is it that both don't seem to know their true origins?

One plot nitpick: Jurati explains that Maddox had the idea that one could clone a neuron from Data's positronic brain to make the organic android Dahj/Soji and presumably others. However, I don't seem to recall that Data had any biological components? Cloning, in the sense we know it today, involves taking something biological (cells or DNA) and replicating it. I was under the impression that Data was entirely mechanical and wouldn't have any biological cells or DNA chromosomes to clone!

I suppose the closest thing to what Dahj/Soji are in other science fiction are the Blade Runner replicants. They were biological constructs and by implanting memories they can behave more human like and by genetic engineering they could have incredible physical strength.

LA Galaxy off season

The curtain fell on the LA Galaxy season in El Traffico VI. LAFC had been favored to win every match in the derby and finally broke through with a solid if messy 5-3 win.

Thus, LAFC march on in what is expected to be an MLS Cup. However, in the way is Seattle a past MLS Cup winner (2016) in the Western conference finals. If they win, they face the winner of the Eastern conference finals pitting Toronto (2017 MLS Cup winner) against Atlanta (2018 MLS Cup winner). All in all, the teams that have shown themselves to be top class the last few years.

LA Galaxy continue to retool after returning to the playoffs after missing the playoffs in 2017 and 2018. The defense really let them down on the semi-final match as it did many times during the season.

What is ahead for the front office?

DP decisions
1. Zlatan - He will be out of contract and rumors are for a return to Italy. However, the question is would Zlatan be willing to accept a smaller role on a contender or more playing time in a team less likely to to be a champion? He has expressed his displeasure at various aspects of MLS life (the referees, the lower quality supporting cast, the artificial turf at some venues, etc). On the other hand, he will get minutes on the LA Galaxy and the club provides him the kind of media exposure he clearly enjoys. Unless the front office has some other "big name" in mind to bring in as a DP, they will try to make a good faith offer to Zlatan and hope he declines so they can move on. 60:40 that Zlatan moves on.
News: Italy club interest might be less than expected. Rejoins AC Milan. 
2. JDS - He is still on contract and has been a key player and should continue to be central to plans for 2020.
News: JDS says he wants to finish his career with LAG. 
3. Alessandrini - He will be out of contract. However, he is a fan favorite, enjoys Los Angeles, and has contributed when healthy. Given his injury history, another DP contract is unlikely but some kind of deal could be made to keep him at a more modest salary level. 70:30 he stays on a reduced contract.
News: Out of contract, will he get a new deal? I think so at reduced salary

Defensive woes
4. Steres - Arguable the best value defender on the club. Good stats on a modest salary and a domestic player. The kind of player any MLS club would want to have around either as a starter or frequently rotated in player. 80:20 that he stays with a raise.
News: Out of contract, will he get a new deal? I think so at increased salary
News: He has a new contract.
5. Polenta - He was voted best defender of the year for the club but he has had some games where he was in the spotlight for what went wrong. Am guessing he is under contract and will be staying.
News: CoG MLS experts say Polenta might be a question mark about returning.
Option declined.
6. Feltscher - Had some good moments but not enough. He will probably be gone.
News: Option exercised.

7. Skjelvik - Had too many bad moments and saw minutes slashed over time. He will probably be gone.

News: Under contract! Unexpected that his original contract was 3-years. Perhaps, he will be traded to Europe.

8. Gonzalez - Am guessing he is under contract and will be staying. He has struggled in many games and maybe rated at this point as the poorest signing by the new front office. However, in fairness to him, he was played out of position on a number of occasions.
News: CoG MLS experts say Gonzales might be returning because his contract situation might be more secure than Polenta.
9.  Romney - A solid defender who can play multiple positions and a domestic player and won't break the salary bank. Romney has value on LAG as well as any other MLS club who need to have some domestic players to fill out the roster. The problem for Steres and Romney is that they are better at center-back than wide back positions. Wide back is a position of need for LAG with the likely departures of Feltscher and Skjelvik. Polenta and Gonzalez are center-backs and under contract thus making Steres and Romney as rotation players though Steres wound up starting quite a bit; thus, am thinking Romney moves on.
News: Romney to Nashville.  
10. Bingham - decent goalkeeper, not top of the line but solid

News: Under contract.

Latin American connections
10. Antuna - He had enough success that he will almost certainly be seeking greener pastures.
News: He is going to Chivas Guadalajara.
11. Favio Alvarez - Didn't have as much impact as Antuna so am figuring there might not be as much interest to draw him away from LAG. Probably will stay.
News: He was on loan and LAG may decline the option to renew. Option declined.
12. Pavon - He was a hit and will mostly likely get a DP level contract. Don't think he has done enough over a long enough period of time to draw big dollar interest from higher level leagues. A huge 2020 season could make his price go up and he will move on in 2021.
News: He is back at DP level as expected. 

The role players
13. Joe Corona - Probably under contract so should be staying.
News: Remains on contract.
14. Sebastian Lletget - Good to see him recovered from injury and have a good season. Don't know contract status but a solid non-DP level player with USMNT possibilities so LAG probably will want to keep around.
News: New contract with a raise.
15. Chris Pontius - solid veteran player for the bench and squad rotation but may want more playing time elsewhere.
News: Pontius has announced he will retire.
16. Perry Kitchen - Don't know contact status. Didn't get a lot of minutes due to injury. May want more playing time elsewhere.
News: Remains on contract.
17. Servando Carrasco - Good role player at a budget but at his age he might want to call it a career.
News: Option not exercised.
18, Matt Lampson - solid backup goalkeeper
News: Option not exercised.
19.  Justin Vom Steeg - solid young goalkeeper with possible future
News: Option exercised.

The youngsters
20. Julian Araujo - He is a wide back with lots of upside but not ready to be a routine starter at right back.
21. Efrain Alvarez - Mid-fielder with lots of upside but not not ready to be a routine starter.
22. Diedie Traore - Wide back back with lots of upside but not ready to be a routine starter at left back.
23. Emil Cuello - Mid-fielder with some upside but not not ready to be a routine bench player and occasional starter.
News: Option exercised.

Your best one-stop shop for the latest rumors and moves by LA Galaxy is Corner of the Galaxy Rumor Tracker.

The team sheet on the final match of the season (Conference semi-final against LAFC:
Bold face are players on the roster 
Italics are players in negotiation where it is anticipated they will return  
Regular typeface indicates that are gone for sure or very likely not returning 

1. Ibrahimovic = out of contract, at AC Milan
2. Pavon = re-signed at DP level
3. Lletget = re-signed at TAM level
4. Antuna = off to Chivas Guadalajara 
5. dos Santos = remains on contract
6. Kitchen = remains on contract
7. Romney = traded to Nashville 
8. Polenta = out of contract, option declined
9. Steres = out of contract in negotiation new contract
10. Gonzalez = remains on contract
11. Bingham = remains on contract 
12. Lampson = option declined
13. Feltscher = option exercised
14. Alessandrini = out of contract in negotiation
15. Carrasco =  option declined
16. Corona = remains on contract
17. Alvarez = loan expired, option declined
    
18. Pontius = retired

As you can see, of the final team sheet of 18 players, only 8 are back with 2 probably back if deals can be negotiated, and 8 not returning. It is going to be yet another rebuilding year for the LA Galaxy in 2020!

NEWS: Additions to the team
Sacha Kljestan - the 34 year old midfielder will add some depth to the squad 
Emilian Insua - 30 year old defender from Argentina recently playing in Germany
Aleksandar Katai - 28 year old Serbian midfielder recently at Chicago Fire

Short post on Short Treks Season 2

Enjoyed "Q & A" and "Ask Not."

Those two were delightful little character sketches that fit nicely into Star Trek lore. Will see if the fans are able to lobby for an Anson Mount, Rebecca Romijn, and Ethan Peck centered show. They have been wonderful.

I think Discovery might have been better served building around Sonequa Martin-Green, Doug Jones, and Michelle Yeoh. Instead, they wrote themselves into a corner with massive story arcs in the two seasons that were resolved in not entirely satisfying ways.

But back to the Short Treks, season two; though, I like the idea of a lighter touch and plots involving "origin stories," I thought "The Trouble with Edward" was over-the-top.

Monocle 3 install on Mac

Was attempting to install Monocle 3 onto a iMac.

Got stuck trying to install the leidenbase package.

Found a solution here at https://github.com/cole-trapnell-lab/leidenbase/issues/6

The program needs gfortran so went ahead and installed it from https://cran.r-project.org/bin/macosx/tools/gfortran-6.1.pkg

Was then able to proceed to the next step in the installation and am now trying out the various Monocle 3 tutorials!

Heading into the October international break

LA Galaxy have dropped two in a row and in both cases their defense was the culprit. As a result, they go into the MLS playoffs in fifth place. Which team will show up? The team that took three straight wins or the one that then gave up two straight losses? As it is, they could get bounced in the first round or make a run all the way to the finals!

Meanwhile, their crosstown rivals LAFC are on the top of the standings and the odds on favorite (53% according to 538) to win the whole thing. They have the most points ever with 72 and Vela has the single season goal scoring record with 34.

In the Swedish top league, the race for the championship is close among the big city clubs Malmo and the three Stockholm teams (Djurgardens, Hammarby, and AIK).

My family teams Elfborg and Falkenberg have their goals. Elfborg is in eighth and realistically the gap to seventh is too far. However, they could slip down so finishing eighth would be satisfying at this stage. As for Falkenberg, avoiding outright relegation is the goal. They have 19 points in 15th place. They are close enough to Sundsvall (20 points) to move up into the playoff relegation spot.

Over in England, Liverpool is off to a 8-0-0 start outpacing traditional top dog Man City and venerable top-6 Arsenal. Leicester City and Crystal Place are surprise top-6 right now. Chelsea sit in 5th. Shockingly, typical top-6 Man U is 12th and Tottenham is 9th. LFC's eight wins include some nervey one goal wins. Will this be the year they finally win a EPL championship after so many decades?

Defending the Champions League title would be a bonus but having gotten it last year I think they would not be too disappointment if they don't win it again. However, I think they would like to at least get out of group stage. Thus far Liverpool's champions league performances have been shaky with a loss to Napoli and a too close for comfort win against Salzburg.

QPR is doing stunningly well! They are ninth! However, will they be able to hold it together in the marathon 46 game season that is the Championship. They only have one draw as they give up goals but score them as well. They have managed to come out on top more than not.