Iraqi War Analysis

I wrote an email to a friend who has a great interest in Foreign Affairs giving my view of what might unfold. The message was sent: Sat, 22 Mar 2003. I've typed in the bold face what the situation looks like today nine days after that email.

My analysis:

1. The Iraqi leadership has probably been disrupted but I suspect enough of the leadership is intact to keep them fighting. The bottom line is not whether Hussein is dead or alive. We know from the UBL story that these bad guys are notriously tough to kill and have a few dozen cubby holes to hide in. So even if Hussein is injured, enough of his inner circle is still alive and sending out orders. These guys will not surrender willingly because they will be torn limb from limb by Iraqis if caught by them or will be tried for war crimes if caught by the USA/UK troops.

Hussein shows up only on tape of indeterminant time frames so his fate remains uncertain. Iraqi TV is still on the air and the level of resistance shows some command and control. But the fact they aren't blowing up bridges seems odd.

2. The only hope for a "coup" will have to come from the lower level people... maybe a low level general or colonal leading a small unit to knock off the leadership.

All that early talk with being in contact with Iraqi military leaders was probably true but they apparently didn't bolt and may have been a deception to buy time.

3. the Baathists are counting on the Siege of Bagdad to cause US casualties and to drive an international frenzy to pressure Bush to stop the war. The resistance thus far has been so miminal that my belief is that Hussein and his cronies are trusting only the most loyal units of the republican guards and those units will be kept in and around Bagdad.

The Peter Arnet incident seems to confirm this kind of plan to use world opinion. Also, rumors that "Blackhawk Down" is Iraqi military's favorite movie means they want a urban battle.

4. Chemical weapons will be used if they believe that international pressure over a siege doesn't end the war. At that point they will feel they have nothing to lose and will videotape and broadcast Jihadist messages and be as fanatical as the kamkazi pilots of
WW2.

This weekend's reports of suicide bombers indicates the increasing despairation of the Hussein loyalists. Chemicals will be next up, unfortunately.

5. The Turkey situation is dicey. Hopefully, their troop movements are only to secure their boarders and set up refugee camps. If they try to kill kurds or lop off territory, Bush/Blair will be forced to threaten them and that will NOT be a good situation.

This issue seems to have quieted down. Whew. The 173rd Airborne Brigade has been reported in Northern Iraq and are teaming up with special forces and the Kurdish rebels.

6. Without the Turkish northern front, the 4th division is being re-routed to Kuwait for deployment. I'm sure Franks was counting on sending the 4th division in from the north to take Kirkuk. Instead, my guess is they will be used it in the siege of Bagdad by late april. If the Bagdad falls before that then the 4th will relieve the 3rd division in peacekeeping operations.

Reports are that the 4th ID equipment is transiting the Suez Canal and that its troops are leaving their US bases bound for Kuwait.

7. So far the British units will probably keep an eye on Basra and the right flank and the supply line. The 1st Marine division will probably advance on Bagdad along the Tigris. The 3rd division will advance along the Euphrates. I'm not sure where the 101st will be deployed. I think Tommy Franks is holding them in reserve to reinforce should the Republican guard units decide to fight.

Basra is tying up the British units and aren't available for the drive on Baghdad. Looks like the 3rd ID pretty much stayed on the West bank of the Euphrates and didn't cross over until Najef. The 1st Marine crossed the Euphrates at Nasayria. The 101st has some units at Najef to clear things up and some other units working with the 3rd ID to hit Republican Guard units south of Baghdad.

8. There were lots of rumors the 101st was going to go north but i don't think so. The supply line would be too long. Since the bulk of the Iraq oil is in the Rumalia oil field near Basra, that is the bigger priority. I think Franks had no choice but to write off the north for now. He may have special forces there to help the kurds. Obviously if the Iraqis decide to attack the Kurds, Franks will have to alter his plans to counter that move. But he is counting on the airstrikes in the north to freeze in place the
Iraqi forces.

Kurds are moving with coalition special ops forces. They went east to hit the terrorist camps on the boarder with Iran. Air power is hitting Iraqi positions but so far there hasn't been a move to take any on the major cities in the north. The 173rd Airborne Brigade has airdropped to secure an airfield and are being reinforced.

9. To be honest, I think Franks would have liked to have at least one more division to deal with any surprises. As it is, he is now TWO divisions short because the 4th isn't going to be in place for another 3 to 4 weeks.

This past weekend, there have been leaks about arguments during the war planning that more forces should have been committed. For now the high level Pentagon officials are sticking to the message that everying is going according to plan. The post-war "tick-tock" book writing will definitely focus on this internal debate.

In any case, I'm still hoping for the "coup" to occur and the signal to come from Bagdad to all the units to drop their guns. Unfortunately, the most loyal units might not. My feeling is that those people who thought this thing would be over in a week are too optimistic and misunderstand the Gulf war. The Gulf ground war lasted 100 hours but the mission was to get the Iraqis out of Kuwait. So they had a place to retreat back to. This time, they are cornered. Hopefully, they won't fight to the last man but if they do, it is going to be very bloody.