Breaking news: possible surprise in Wisconsin

Hadn't even bothered to blog the last few blowout primary results. Poll numbers showed Kerry blowing out the competition so I didn't give Wisconsin much thought.

However, as of 6:30 PM PST, the leaked exit poll numbers say it is much closer than expected between Kerry and Edwards. With Clark having dropped out, the anybody but Kerry voters had to choose between Edwards and Dean and it looks like they are going to Edwards.

The question for Dean and the Deaniacs is: does Dean endorse Edwards? Or do they continue the fight on their own? Or does Dean drop out but with a wink and a nod send his staffers and supporters to Edwards?

My feeling is that Dean has no interest at all in being VP and truly wants to shake up the party and the only way to do that is to stick it to the establishment i.e. Kerry and all the big wigs endorsing Kerry.

In 2000, the McCainiacs where the anti-establishment within the GOP. McCain was the only plausible alternative to Bush and so they fought it out for quite a while before McCain had to bow out.

Has buyer's remorse set in for the Democrats?

I don't believe the scandal rumors caused this. Post-Clinton, it just simply isn't a big deal anymore. And besides, by all accounts, nothing happened anyway.

Edwards will assess the situation. Does he believe the Wisconsin support is *for* him or merely *against* Kerry. If the latter, then Edwards will compete but nicely to keep his VP shot alive. But if he thinks he can win, then he will have to tell his staffers to look at the same materials the GOP is gathering up on Kerry. Since Kerry has a long Senate history, the voting record will be exhibit A for lawyer Edwards to use to show he is the more mainstream candidate near the center where elections are won.

If Edwards actually wins Wisconsin, I suspect he will go all out and burn the bridges to a VP spot on a Kerry ticket.

Will California democratic voters actually have a say this go around?

UPDATE: Final numbers show a 6% win for Kerry. Closer than expected but not as close as some of the early reports were making it out to be. I suppose the media wants to play up the two-man horse-race. Don't expect to see Edwards try to tear up Kerry in debates, speeches nor commercials. March 2 is the California primary as well as a bunch of other states. Should be interesting to see if the buyer's remorse picks up steam.

UPDATE: Chris Suellentrop at Slate thinks it was Drudge that made Wisconsin close. I still think it is buyer's remorse. The more Kerry has the stage to himself the less appealing he is becoming. Kerry hasn't so much towered above everyone else but rather everyone else around him fell down (Dean's self-inflicted problems, Clark's inconsistencies, Gephardt as old news and Edwards being seen as too young). So of the opponents, only Edwards is left standing now. The problem for Edwards is getting the people who are not wild about Kerry to be passionate about him.

I am really curious how the next debate will go.