Politics: Debt deal near?

They say it should be soon later today.

Politics is "the art of the possible" and this was probably about all that could be done.

The White House wanted the problem pushed past the November 2012 elections.

The Democrats wanted to minimize the chances of spending cuts.

The Republicans wanted to minimize the chances of raising taxes.

And so you get "the deal."

In the House, some Tea Party Republicans will vote no because it doesn't do enough and some Left Democrats will vote no because it does too much. Look for a strange mix of Democrats and Republicans voting yes and no.

How about this for a guess?
Yes
170 Republican
100 Democrat
No
70 Republican
93 Democrat

UPDATE:

UPDATE: In a heart warming moment, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords cast her vote for the deal in her return to the House as she continues her recovery since being shot in January.

In the Senate, I would anticipate passage with some dissent also. My guess:
Yes
40 Democrat
39 Republican
No
13 Democrat
8 Republican

UPDATE: The final vote was 74-26. Democrat support was a bit stronger than I expected with 46 votes and GOP support was weaker with 28. In the end, it passed with apparently little drama.

On substance, the deal just doesn't do all that much. It gets the government past the immediate debt limit problem but doesn't solve the debt problem itself.

$2.5 trillion is a dent in the problem.

The current debt is about $14.5 trillion but the really big number is the future unfunded liabilities in the bottom right of the debt clock. They estimate it to be $115 trillion!

I've seen other estimates but if the $115 trillion is overstated by a factor of two, the problem is still $57.5 trillion.