Closing on Baghdad

News was breaking fast and furious Tuesday PM (Wednesday AM in Iraq). First came the reports of the 3rd Infantry and the 1st Marine making their moves after air attacks had weakened Republican Guard units blocking their paths to Baghdad. Second came the raid that freed PFC Jessica Lynch. And the final item was the statement from Hussein read by the information minister further fueling speculation of Hussein's condition.

Last Friday (post below -- More Iraqi War Analysis), I made some observations for the road ahead.

1. Clearly, the British need to gain control of Basra. This will take several days at least and maybe a week.

The British are taking Basra section by section. It is slow work but seems to be proceeding and may take another week or two. This maybe a foreshadow of the Siege of Baghdad.

2. The US has to secure its long supply line. If reports of supply problems are true that is priority number one and there will not be a big battle this weekend that some news outlets are forecasting. Franks must resist any political pressures to make an attack on Baghdad sooner rather than later. The welfare of his troops must be paramount.

We will only know months from now just how serious (or not) the supply problems were. But it seems by Tuesday, Franks gave the word for the 1st Marine and the 3rd Infantry to push ahead. Is it possible that maybe the media made too much of the problems? Wouldn't be the first time, eh?

3. With clear weather for the next several days forcasted, air efforts will shift heavily to hitting the Republican Guard units south of Baghdad.

Indeed, Coalition forces devoted the majority of sorties to hitting the Guard units.

4. Chemical weapons... the great unknown.... my fear is that Hussein will order their use. If the winds ever completely quiet down, he will fire them at coalition forces. His calculation is that what can the Coalition do if he uses them?

Still the wildcard. Saw on Nightline that Ted Koppel and the 3rd Infantry was in "MOP-2" with boots, pants and coats. If they get the warning, they have to get their gas masks and gloves on.

5. Bush and Blair strongly emphasized at Camp David that this is going to take time and will be difficult. This message will continue to be sent at every public statement.

Everyone remains cautiously optimistic. Baghdad awaits with the most fanatically loyal Baathists. It may involve slow section by section work like what the British are having to do in Basra. It ain't over yet. But to be knocking on the doorstep in just 2 weeks is good news.