Sports: Wanton speculation - BCS stuffs

If everyone holds serve, I'd look for this line-up for the BCS bowls:
Rose - USC vs. Texas
Fiesta - Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Orange - Va Tech vs. Penn State
Sugar - LSU vs. West Virginia

If Texas loses to Colorado:
Rose - USC vs. Penn State
Fiesta - Colorado vs. Notre Dame
Orange - Va Tech vs. Texas
Sugar - LSU vs. West Virginia

As you can see, I think a loss by Texas knocks them out of the championship unlike Nebraska and Oklahoma which lost the Big12 championship in the past and still wound up in the BCS championship only to get crushed!

If Va Tech loses to FSU:
Rose - USC vs. Texas
Fiesta - Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Orange - Florida State vs. Penn State
Sugar - LSU vs. West Virginia

I'm afraid that if the Hokies lose, they finish the season 10-2 and out of the BCS mix.

If LSU loses to Georgia:
Rose - USC vs. Texas
Fiesta - Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Orange - Va Tech vs. Penn State
Sugar - Georgia vs. West Virginia

I think that the Tigers at 10-2 would not garner at at-large bid.

If USC loses to UCLA:
Rose - Penn State vs. Texas
Fiesta - USC vs. Notre Dame
Orange - Va Tech vs. Ohio State
Sugar - LSU vs. West Virginia

Unfortunately, for UCLA, even if they win and finish the season 10-1, they would still be locked out. Ohio State and Notre Dame pretty much have a lock on the at-large bids. Only a Texas loss dislodges one of them.

Another one loss team, Oregon, is more or less is in the same boat as UCLA. Since Oregon lost to USC by a wide margin, there is no realistic scenario where a Bowl committee would pick them over ND or OSU either.

I think the only way for UCLA to get a BCS bid is if they beat USC substantially (better than one touchdown) but even then, will the Orange Bowl take UCLA over Ohio State?

Probably not.

Is there a scenario where USC loses to UCLA and still winds up in the BCS championship game?

If Texas also loses, USC might only slip to #2 and face #1 Penn State. A Texas loss to unranked Colorado would hurt them a lot and an LSU win over Georgia might not lift them from #4 to #2. If USC, Texas and LSU lose, then I can don't see Va Tech jumping from #5 to #2 and so USC could still hold onto the #2 spot.

UPDATE: Here is some speculation from Pittsburgh's Post-Gazette. In the article, there is an interesting little tidbit:

But if Texas and USC win out, then Penn State is left to the vagaries of fate and men wearing expensive suits. Granted, each remaining BCS bowl enters a draft to pick their teams, but all bowls -- the Fiesta, the Sugar and the Orange -- are subject to one disclaimer deserving more than small print: "The [bowl matchups] may be adjusted by the conference and the institutions participating in the BCS, in consultation with the BCS bowls and ABC, in the interest of creating the most exciting and competitive postseason matchups possible."

To translate: Don't make your travel plans just yet.

I thought that the BCS bowls were bound by their conference tie-ins but it would seem that is not the case. Thus, the BCS formula spits out the #1 and #2, teams that qualify by virtue of being conference champions and a very short list of approved at-large teams. After the Rose gets their #1 and #2 teams, the other three BCS bowls pick from the rest of the pile. They would probably pick teams with conference tie-ins but if there is a team they think might fill their stadiums better, they could do so.

UPDATE: Stewart Mandel is paid to engage in wanton speculation about the BCS in the Yahoo! Sports SI.com column.