The polling numbers are not looking good for Mitt Romney.
However, polling is an inexact science.
Check out this interview with Michael Barone who is one of the experts in looking at polls.
Excerpt:
The Pew Research Center reports that only 9% of the people that it calls are responding to polls. That’s way down from historic levels, and it raises the question are those people representative of the population as a whole that they’re trying to sample? You know, one thing that polls can’t tell you is the characteristics of people who won’t be polled. So that raises some serious questions. Are we getting skewed samples? We know from the exit poll phenomenon over the last many cycles that the exit poll results tend to come in more Democratic than the actual vote does, and measured at the same precincts.
Since I've been voting in Presidential elections, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996 and 2008 were the elections where there was essentially no doubt who would win. The only question was what the margin of victory would be. Only in 2000 and 2004 was it a question mark as to who would win going into election night as I watched.
If the Gallup 6% (as of Sept 25) Obama lead holds up over time, in particular after the first debate, then it may well be over barring something completely out of left field.
Skewing of 2 to 3% perhaps could be accounted for by two possible factors:
1. the historic tendency of Democrats to over-poll in polls as mentioned by Michael Barone in the excerpt above and
2. the so-called "Bradley effect."
If these phenomena are actual, then a 6% lead may really be only 3%.
Besides actually getting someone to talk on the poll call (mentioned above), the next challenge is to ask the person questions that probe how likely they will actually vote since a certain percentage of voters say they will vote but don't actually do so.
Rasmussen (as of Sept 26) has the race tied at 46-46. He has consistently had the race closer than other pollsters. When the ballots are finally counted, it will be interesting to see if his "likely voter" screen resulted in greater accuracy or not.
UPDATE: Another interesting phenomena could be the self-identification of Republican leaning voters as Independent voters. Geraghty explains as follows: Perhaps these are Tea Party conservatives fed up with a GOP they find too “establishment,” etc. If the Democratic share of the vote were stable, it would just mean voters are shifting between these two other self-classifications. If this skewing is occurring than adjusting the D/R ratios downward would overstate Romney's support.
Non-profit of the month: September 2012 - California Science Center
When I was young, my parents would occasionally take me to the California Museum of Science and Industry. It is now known as the California Science Center. Visits to the old CMSI and Griffith Observatory were a part of kindling my fascination with science that I carry with me to this day in my life as a molecular biologist.
The big news for the CSC is the soon to arrive Space Shuttle Endeavour!
Thus, I've gone to the web page to donate to Endeavour LA and who knows how many youthful visitors will be inspired to become the scientists and engineers of tomorrow!
The big news for the CSC is the soon to arrive Space Shuttle Endeavour!
Thus, I've gone to the web page to donate to Endeavour LA and who knows how many youthful visitors will be inspired to become the scientists and engineers of tomorrow!
Politics: Electoral College Scenarios
President Obama is leading in the polls but its close. Here is one "long night" scenario where Obama is re-elected. One can imagine 3 or 4 states counting ballots well into the night and perhaps for several days after election day before a winner is called.
If in the next month the economy takes an unexpected dive, Romney would win the toss ups and coast to a solid win pretty early in the night.
The see you in the House scenario. If the electoral college fails to determine a winner, then the House of Representatives decide.
Politics: The problems of the world driven by geographic predestination?
Heard on podcast a riveting interview with Robert Kaplan author of the Revenge of Geography. The premise is that the geographical features of a nation impacts their aspirations and fears relative to its foreign policy.
For instance, Kaplan views that Russia will always be a significant world power because it is a huge country rich with natural resources. However, because it is largely land-locked and for historical reasons, it fears invasions and will always want to influence/meddle with/intervene in its neighbors in Eastern Europe and Central Asia to maintain a "buffer" for its own protection. This template, according to Kaplan, is the driving force for much of European history: a rivalry between Russia and some other entity to the west (either France or Germany). And indeed, he points out Germany is the economic and diplomatic driver of the EU and current rival to Russia.
He views the fact that China has a large coastline as key to understanding China's ability and aspirations to be a world superpower just as England at one time dominated the seas and built its empire and how the USA currently rules the oceans. However, he notes that China faces some serious internal challenges because at the edges of its borders are Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan that are of different ethnic groups and are hard to control.
India walks a tightrope because it wants to be friends with the USA, the current economic and military superpower, but since it shares a border with China, it fears China. Thus, if China-US relations sour, it is likely to side with China because they are next door. Likewise, if China and the US get closer, they will want to cozy up to the USA.
He notes that Mexico is under-appreciated as a foreign policy question for the USA. Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed nation-state and that decline would seriously impact the USA since it shares a huge border. Likewise, a stable Mexico would secure North America as the dominant power center of the world because of the rich resources in Canada, USA and Mexico. However, Mexico is difficult to govern because it is mountainous.
As a global trend, urbanization will strain all governments. He noted in the world today there are nearly 40 cities with over 10+ million people and nearly 400 cities with over 1+ million people. Cities inherently require more government services and the continuing trend toward urbanization could fuel unrest if governments fail to meet the needs of people in these growing cities.
Certainly, geography is an important feature of why nations behave the way they do. But what about ideology?
One wonders what the world would have looked like without Nazi propaganda of ethnic superiority, Communist belief that their system was the ultimate destination of history and the Maoist cult of personality?
Did those ideologies just amplify geographic pre-destination?
Would some other reason have arisen for those three regimes grab at world domination?
Or how about this counter-factual, what would history have looked like if the USA instead of reducing its military after World War II had decided to "go full Roman?"
It is generally believed that no super-power can remain for very long. Thus, if the USA had gone "full Roman" would the world now be a smoking ruin after the world finally threw off its American overlords?
The fact is the US opted for "containment" rather than "full Roman" as its post-WW2 approach. Was this driven by ideological factors or was it simply the geography of two large oceans?
Likewise, today, what would the world look like if there was not an extreme brand of Islam? Or if there were many millions of Mother Teresa's?
I suspect geography is a good filter to view world affairs and the course of history but ideology shouldn't be ignored.
For instance, Kaplan views that Russia will always be a significant world power because it is a huge country rich with natural resources. However, because it is largely land-locked and for historical reasons, it fears invasions and will always want to influence/meddle with/intervene in its neighbors in Eastern Europe and Central Asia to maintain a "buffer" for its own protection. This template, according to Kaplan, is the driving force for much of European history: a rivalry between Russia and some other entity to the west (either France or Germany). And indeed, he points out Germany is the economic and diplomatic driver of the EU and current rival to Russia.
He views the fact that China has a large coastline as key to understanding China's ability and aspirations to be a world superpower just as England at one time dominated the seas and built its empire and how the USA currently rules the oceans. However, he notes that China faces some serious internal challenges because at the edges of its borders are Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan that are of different ethnic groups and are hard to control.
India walks a tightrope because it wants to be friends with the USA, the current economic and military superpower, but since it shares a border with China, it fears China. Thus, if China-US relations sour, it is likely to side with China because they are next door. Likewise, if China and the US get closer, they will want to cozy up to the USA.
He notes that Mexico is under-appreciated as a foreign policy question for the USA. Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed nation-state and that decline would seriously impact the USA since it shares a huge border. Likewise, a stable Mexico would secure North America as the dominant power center of the world because of the rich resources in Canada, USA and Mexico. However, Mexico is difficult to govern because it is mountainous.
As a global trend, urbanization will strain all governments. He noted in the world today there are nearly 40 cities with over 10+ million people and nearly 400 cities with over 1+ million people. Cities inherently require more government services and the continuing trend toward urbanization could fuel unrest if governments fail to meet the needs of people in these growing cities.
Certainly, geography is an important feature of why nations behave the way they do. But what about ideology?
One wonders what the world would have looked like without Nazi propaganda of ethnic superiority, Communist belief that their system was the ultimate destination of history and the Maoist cult of personality?
Did those ideologies just amplify geographic pre-destination?
Would some other reason have arisen for those three regimes grab at world domination?
Or how about this counter-factual, what would history have looked like if the USA instead of reducing its military after World War II had decided to "go full Roman?"
It is generally believed that no super-power can remain for very long. Thus, if the USA had gone "full Roman" would the world now be a smoking ruin after the world finally threw off its American overlords?
The fact is the US opted for "containment" rather than "full Roman" as its post-WW2 approach. Was this driven by ideological factors or was it simply the geography of two large oceans?
Likewise, today, what would the world look like if there was not an extreme brand of Islam? Or if there were many millions of Mother Teresa's?
I suspect geography is a good filter to view world affairs and the course of history but ideology shouldn't be ignored.
Politics: Battle for White House 2012
The RCP Battle for White House electoral college map has President Obama at 221 and Gov. Romney at 191 with 10 states in the toss up category.
People have been wondering how come the President is still ahead despite the dreadful economy?
I think there are a number of reasons:
1. Unhappiness with a sitting President has to be very high before the voters will make a change.
I was too young to vote in 1980 but my impression was that President Carter really didn't see support evaporate until very late in the election season. In 1992, the three-way race made President Bush's re-election chances even more difficult. If it was a traditional two-man race, he would have still lost but I suspect it would have been more competitive. In 2004, many were unhappy with President Bush 43 but not enough to vote him out though the election was close.
2. There is no question that President Obama still has a lot of good will because of the historic nature of being the first President with African ancestry.
In 2008, a lot of people really did want to believe in "hope and change" and so there continues to be the desire among many to see him be successful. In 1992, President Bush was seen as Reagan's third term so the good will was long gone. In 2004, though Bush 43 was unpopular among many, he retained good will among many for his leadership post 9-11.
3. Gov. Romney though quite gifted with many skills and abilities, connecting with the common voter has not been one of them.
Anyone who gets as far as being the nominee of a major part to be president has to have some political talent. Nonetheless, some just have more of that mystical ability to connect with the voters. In my adult life, Reagan and Clinton were probably the most gifted in connecting with people. Bush 41 and Bush 43 were elected despite some shortcomings.
President Obama won in 2008 with a combination of his political gifts and the confluence of expectations (albeit unrealistic), poor economy and an old (though honorable) opponent. As he faces 2012, some of those things still work in his favor but some against him. Thus, this election will either be 2004 or 1980. If the economy perks up even a little bit more, President Obama will probably be re-elected in a narrow win much like President Bush 43 did in 2004. However, if the economy slips back, there will be a late break toward Gov. Romney and probably a pretty early call on election night in Romney's favor.
People have been wondering how come the President is still ahead despite the dreadful economy?
I think there are a number of reasons:
1. Unhappiness with a sitting President has to be very high before the voters will make a change.
I was too young to vote in 1980 but my impression was that President Carter really didn't see support evaporate until very late in the election season. In 1992, the three-way race made President Bush's re-election chances even more difficult. If it was a traditional two-man race, he would have still lost but I suspect it would have been more competitive. In 2004, many were unhappy with President Bush 43 but not enough to vote him out though the election was close.
2. There is no question that President Obama still has a lot of good will because of the historic nature of being the first President with African ancestry.
In 2008, a lot of people really did want to believe in "hope and change" and so there continues to be the desire among many to see him be successful. In 1992, President Bush was seen as Reagan's third term so the good will was long gone. In 2004, though Bush 43 was unpopular among many, he retained good will among many for his leadership post 9-11.
3. Gov. Romney though quite gifted with many skills and abilities, connecting with the common voter has not been one of them.
Anyone who gets as far as being the nominee of a major part to be president has to have some political talent. Nonetheless, some just have more of that mystical ability to connect with the voters. In my adult life, Reagan and Clinton were probably the most gifted in connecting with people. Bush 41 and Bush 43 were elected despite some shortcomings.
President Obama won in 2008 with a combination of his political gifts and the confluence of expectations (albeit unrealistic), poor economy and an old (though honorable) opponent. As he faces 2012, some of those things still work in his favor but some against him. Thus, this election will either be 2004 or 1980. If the economy perks up even a little bit more, President Obama will probably be re-elected in a narrow win much like President Bush 43 did in 2004. However, if the economy slips back, there will be a late break toward Gov. Romney and probably a pretty early call on election night in Romney's favor.
Devotional Thoughts: Temptation of Jesus - When not What?
The temptation of Jesus is described in Matthew 4:1-11 and Luke 4:1-13.
The devil asked Jesus to do three things:
Well, certainly, bowing down and worshiping the devil is evil. But isn't the goal of recovering the world that God loves a good thing? Isn't making bread from stone good to feed a hungry person? Isn't performing miracles something Jesus would eventually do anyway?
At one level, of course, temptation is about doing bad things.
But at another level, perhaps, temptation might be about doing good things but not at the time of God's appointment?
Jesus would feed 5000 thousand by multiplying loaves and fishes not altogether different than turning stone into bread. Jesus would perform many miracles and thus make a "better show" than a publicity stunt like taking a leap off the top of the Temple. And of course, in due time, every knee will bow to Jesus!
Thus, in a sense, the devil's temptation is going to Jesus at the beginning of his public life and telling and tempting Jesus to skip to the end of the story without going through all the hard chapters.
How often in life we want to "rush" things. Sometimes, things simply have to unfold in God's timing. Now having the wisdom to know God's timing is a challenge! But nonetheless, we need to think about what is the right thing to do and whether it is timely to do so at the moment.
Lord help me to respond to your mysterious leading to do what is good at the moment it is most needed whether it is a dreadful interruption to my plans or waiting when I want to hurry! Amen.
The devil asked Jesus to do three things:
- Tell the stone to become bread.
- I will give you all the kingdoms of the world if you worship me.
- Throw yourself from the top of the temple and show a miracle to the masses when an angel rescues you.
Well, certainly, bowing down and worshiping the devil is evil. But isn't the goal of recovering the world that God loves a good thing? Isn't making bread from stone good to feed a hungry person? Isn't performing miracles something Jesus would eventually do anyway?
At one level, of course, temptation is about doing bad things.
But at another level, perhaps, temptation might be about doing good things but not at the time of God's appointment?
Jesus would feed 5000 thousand by multiplying loaves and fishes not altogether different than turning stone into bread. Jesus would perform many miracles and thus make a "better show" than a publicity stunt like taking a leap off the top of the Temple. And of course, in due time, every knee will bow to Jesus!
Thus, in a sense, the devil's temptation is going to Jesus at the beginning of his public life and telling and tempting Jesus to skip to the end of the story without going through all the hard chapters.
How often in life we want to "rush" things. Sometimes, things simply have to unfold in God's timing. Now having the wisdom to know God's timing is a challenge! But nonetheless, we need to think about what is the right thing to do and whether it is timely to do so at the moment.
Lord help me to respond to your mysterious leading to do what is good at the moment it is most needed whether it is a dreadful interruption to my plans or waiting when I want to hurry! Amen.
Business: 12 small business stories
With the whole "you didn't build that" controversy, I was prompted to think about the businesses I have encountered in the course of my activities. So what follows are 12 brief stories of small businesses.
One
If you buy flowers at a local store, it is probably a small business. Be sure to check out Sada Flowers!
Two
One of the tools of laboratory work is the pipet. Periodically, they need to be cleaned, calibrated and have parts replaced. Hats off to Pipet Repair Service, Inc. who did the most recent service call on our 30+ pipets.
Three
I'm told there used to be more Scandinavian bakeries. Recently coming onto the scene is Copenhagen Pastry. Hope they have a good long run!
Four
Remember the line from that 60s movie? "Plastics." Well, Kurt Landsberger lived it long before the film. Bel-Art Scienceware might not be a small business anymore (don't know how many employees they have today) but they started as one.
Five
Flooring. If your office needs carpet or your home needs tile, you call someone to put it in and that crew of guys is almost certainly part of a small business. We had some carpeting and blinds put in as part of our home improvement renovations and Scandia Carpets did a great job!
Disclosure: This small business is owned and operated by my wife's uncle. His company has been in business a long time and for good reason - the crew came in and did a quality job fast and friendly.
Six
The restaurant business is hard work for all involved and having a famous father doesn't mean success if the food isn't great, the service friendly and the atmosphere inviting. But hat's off to Ben Ford's team at Ford Filling Station. Great for special occasion dining.
Seven
The alternative to not visiting the dentist is to have your teeth and gums go bad! Running a dental practice is running a small business.
Eight
There are big chain restaurants but usually what makes a neighborhood a neighborhood is the little place on the corner. On one corner near where we live is Cafe Laurent.
Nine
I've had some work done on my bike. Their story is pretty much a classic small business story. A family with a simply idea, having the boldness to do it and sustaining it with good service. So hats off to Abba Padre Bikes and Books.
Ten
Big box retailers have a place in the marketplace but so do specialty retailers where you can get items but also expert advice about those items and what to do with it from passionate and knowledgable folks. One of my favorites for outdoor gear is Adventure 16. See the story of its founder Andy Drollinger.
Eleven
The ethnic restaurant is the classic example of small businesses. In a typical month, how often do you go one? NBC Seafood is one of our family favorites.
Twelve
Storefront bookstores are hard to find these days. In our neighborhood, the only place where you can wander the aisles and browse is Piccolo's. They have four locations in Southern California.
Hats off to all the founders of these businesses and the employees that help make them go!
One
If you buy flowers at a local store, it is probably a small business. Be sure to check out Sada Flowers!
Two
One of the tools of laboratory work is the pipet. Periodically, they need to be cleaned, calibrated and have parts replaced. Hats off to Pipet Repair Service, Inc. who did the most recent service call on our 30+ pipets.
Three
I'm told there used to be more Scandinavian bakeries. Recently coming onto the scene is Copenhagen Pastry. Hope they have a good long run!
Four
Remember the line from that 60s movie? "Plastics." Well, Kurt Landsberger lived it long before the film. Bel-Art Scienceware might not be a small business anymore (don't know how many employees they have today) but they started as one.
Five
Flooring. If your office needs carpet or your home needs tile, you call someone to put it in and that crew of guys is almost certainly part of a small business. We had some carpeting and blinds put in as part of our home improvement renovations and Scandia Carpets did a great job!
Disclosure: This small business is owned and operated by my wife's uncle. His company has been in business a long time and for good reason - the crew came in and did a quality job fast and friendly.
Six
The restaurant business is hard work for all involved and having a famous father doesn't mean success if the food isn't great, the service friendly and the atmosphere inviting. But hat's off to Ben Ford's team at Ford Filling Station. Great for special occasion dining.
Seven
The alternative to not visiting the dentist is to have your teeth and gums go bad! Running a dental practice is running a small business.
Eight
There are big chain restaurants but usually what makes a neighborhood a neighborhood is the little place on the corner. On one corner near where we live is Cafe Laurent.
Nine
I've had some work done on my bike. Their story is pretty much a classic small business story. A family with a simply idea, having the boldness to do it and sustaining it with good service. So hats off to Abba Padre Bikes and Books.
Ten
Big box retailers have a place in the marketplace but so do specialty retailers where you can get items but also expert advice about those items and what to do with it from passionate and knowledgable folks. One of my favorites for outdoor gear is Adventure 16. See the story of its founder Andy Drollinger.
Eleven
The ethnic restaurant is the classic example of small businesses. In a typical month, how often do you go one? NBC Seafood is one of our family favorites.
Twelve
Storefront bookstores are hard to find these days. In our neighborhood, the only place where you can wander the aisles and browse is Piccolo's. They have four locations in Southern California.
Hats off to all the founders of these businesses and the employees that help make them go!
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