Politics: US Military Spending

How much do you think the US spends on its military?

How much should the US spend on its military?

Below are three graphs that show how much the US actually spent on its armed forces in recent history.

The first graph goes all the way back to 1930.  As you can see, there was the huge spike in the 1940s during World War II.  American truly transitioned into a war economy at one point having 42% of all economic activity devoted to the military. 

The second graph shows the period from 1950 to 1980.  One can note the peak in the 1950s probably due to the Korean War and the Cold War with the USSR.  In the 50s, routinely 10% or more of the US economy was dedicated to military spending.  President Eisenhower warned of the military-industrial complex.  And indeed, since then, the USA has not spent near the levels of the early 50s.

In the 60s, America fought in Vietnam and kept a strong military for the ongoing Cold War.  8 1/2 to 11 cents of every dollar in the US was placed toward defense spending.

In the 70s, the Vietnam War ended for America (last troops out in 1973; Saigon fell in 1975) and various peace movements and anti-nuclear weapons protests were felt by the politicians such that spending on the military fell from 9% of GDP down to 5.5%.

The third graph picks up the statistics from 1980 to current times.  Rhetorically, people called the Reagan military build up massive.  Indeed, it rose from 6% to 7% of GDP and was sustained for a handful of years but it was hardly massive (see the first graph above and note the relatively shallow upward hump in the graph for the 1980s).  Also, put in historical perspective, the levels of military spending during the Reagan years were less than typical spending in the 1950s and 1960s. 

With the fall of the Iron Curtain in the 1990s, defense spending fell all the way down to 3.5% of GDP.  But alas, America was snapped back into the hard reality of the ways of the world when September 11, 2001 changed the landscape.  Defense spending rose up to 6% of GDP while fighting raged in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US has pulled out of Iraq and is reducing its commitment in Afghanistan; thus, spending on defense will decline once again.

Question:  how much should America be spending on its military?

The reality is that when something terrible happens in the world, whose phone is going to ring?

Indeed, the phone in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue rings and POTUS (Democrat or Republican) will answer and have to decide whether or not US armed forces will be sent.  The budget and strategy mapped out in the next couple of years will determine what kind of capability and numbers POTUS can call upon to respond to a crisis.

Politics: "Non-partisan" California Redistricting Apparently Partisan

Recently, in California, a ballot measure was placed before the voters to establish a "non-partisan" commission to draw up the boundaries for various elective offices.  The theory was to take the process out of the hands of the elected officials who would draw up district lines that protected themselves and their parties from competitive elections.

Alas, it appears that the "non-partisan" commission's work got manipulated by partisans posing as non-partisans.

Excerpts:
The report included an exclusive interview with a redistricting commission member who alleged partisan behavior by his supposedly non-partisan commission colleagues, but the series didn’t cause much attention in the media, the Capitol, or among the public. Apparently, no one was surprised that a commission formed with the best of intentions - i.e., taking backroom political deal-making out of the process by which political lines were drawn - was cynically manipulated to create a partisan advantage.
.......
Commissioner Gabino Aguirre managed to obtain a Senate district for his friend, Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams, in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties. Aguirre made a campaign contribution to Williams after he was in the running for membership on the commission, and then helped craft the new Williams district without disclosing his contribution to anyone. He also helped draw the district intended to end the career of GOP Sen. Tony Strickland. Aguirre hosted a fund raiser in 2008 for the candidate running against Strickland’s wife.
.......
Let this be a reminder of how easily any reform - no matter how appealing it may sound - can and will be manipulated by those who are most skilled at the political game. In California, reform measures promoted by political novices will undoubtedly be manipulated by the pros.

The LA Times was not convinced that the process was corrupted.

Here are maps at the LA Times.

As you can see, the maps are quite hard to read in the big cities.

Compare the California maps with a rural state like Iowa where district lines are probably a bit easier to draw without strange shapes.  California districts have to accommodate widely varying population densities.  Also, in California, the map drawing is complicated by the requirements to take into account the ethnic groups in proposed districts.

The LA Times also has the proposed districts broken down by party registration and ethnic distribution.

Politics: Iowa Prediction

I think Ron Paul's isolationist views are not a good idea but he captures the anti-Washington sentiment and has a very loyal following.  Rick Santorum is now the current not-Romney candidate.

Thus, my forecast:
Paul 24%
Romney 23%
Santorum 21%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 9%
Bachman 7%
Others 3%

UPDATE:  Here is a screen grab below from the NY Times.  My predictions were pretty close to the final results in the sense I figured the top 3 would be pretty bunched up with some spread between the other three.

Life: Thoughts by the Shore

The constant crash of sea to shore
How small we on this earthly place
Enamored with our thoughts that roar
Drowning out God's whispers of grace.

You are constant as sea to sand.
Water gently caressing my feet
Sand settling around where I stand
Embedding grace - God and I meet.

Non-profit of the Month: December 2012 - Salvation Army

There aren't quite as many places as there used to be that permit the red kettles with bell ringers that collect donations for the Salvation Army.  But with the internets, one can go online to donate.

A few years back I was a volunteer bell ringer.  That experience was recounted on this blog over here.

In any case, hope you will consider giving to the Salvation Army or some other group that is helping people in our communities.

Merry Christmas!

Non-Profit of the Month: November 2011 - Hope for the Warriors

When I think of Iraq and Afghanistan, I often think of the photographs that are shown on television or the newspaper of the most recent deaths.   The deaths have exceeded 6000.  In addition, there are tens of thousands that have been wounded in mind and body who have come home. And finally, there are the loved ones of those who have died or have been injured.  These too bear the burdens of war in the loss of a loved one or the ongoing care giving to one who has suffered the wounds of the wars.

And so for this month's non-profit of the month, I'm supporting Hope for the Warriors.

There are many organizations like this big and small, national and local who have gathered together good hearted people to stand with and support our service members and their families.

Please consider supporting one of these groups doing this kind of work.

Non-Profit of the Month: October 2011 - Friends of LA Phil and Venice Family Clinic

Have been a subscriber to LA Phil since 1999.  Ticket revenue covers part of their cost.  The rest comes from individual donations and corporate sponsorships.  The LA Phil also does educations events for youth in the city so I've tried each year to chip in a little bit by donating to Friends of LA Phil.

Another cause I've been supporting regularly is Venice Family Clinic.

Politically, it is going to take some time to sort through the government role in health care.  In the mean time, I think people should support local entities that are doing whatever they can.