On April 21, 2012, Chuck Colson died.
If people knew who he was, it is likely they knew him for his part in the Watergate scandal.
What people might not know is that in the midst of his failings during Watergate, he dedicated his life to following Jesus. As result, he committed his life to Christian ministry to prisoners and their families by founding Prison Fellowship.
Their goal:
Prison Fellowship’s mission is to seek the transformation of prisoners and their reconciliation to God, family, and community through the power and truth of Jesus Christ.
To best accomplish this mission, Prison Fellowship has created a holistic model called Transformational Ministry, which draws upon a number of coordinated and complementary programs and services. Prison Fellowship’s key method in accomplishing this mission is equipping and empowering local churches and volunteers to reach out to prisoners, ex-prisoners, and their families with the love and hope of Christ.
I hope you'll consider supporting their work and any work in your community that helps prisoners, ex-prisoners and their families.
Politics: Updated Delegate Math - Closing on 1144
Tonight is the Louisiana Primary and Santorum should win this one.
Nonetheless, the math is not looking good for Santorum.
The assumptions below:
Santorum wins: Louisiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Nebraska, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas, South Dakota, Montana.
Romney wins: DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Utah.
The two more or less tie in all the other states.
Under these scenarios, Romney gets very close to the needed 1144. Thus, he just needs to over-perform in a few of the above projected locations and he gets over the 1144.
The assumptions below:
Santorum wins: Louisiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Nebraska, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas, South Dakota, Montana.
Romney wins: DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Utah.
The two more or less tie in all the other states.
Under these scenarios, Romney gets very close to the needed 1144. Thus, he just needs to over-perform in a few of the above projected locations and he gets over the 1144.
| state | date | delegates | romney | santorum | gingrich | paul |
| 560 | 246 | 141 | 66 | |||
| Louisiana | 24-Mar | 46 | 15 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 3-Apr | 42 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Maryland | 3-Apr | 37 | 18 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| District of Columbia | 3-Apr | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | 21-Apr | 52 | 17 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| New York | 24-Apr | 95 | 47 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 24-Apr | 72 | 23 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 24-Apr | 28 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhode Island | 24-Apr | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Delaware | 24-Apr | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 8-May | 55 | 27 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | 8-May | 46 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 8-May | 31 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 15-May | 35 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| Oregon | 15-May | 28 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 22-May | 45 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 22-May | 36 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas | 29-May | 155 | 51 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| California | 5-Jun | 172 | 86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 5-Jun | 50 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 5-Jun | 28 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| Montana | 5-Jun | 26 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 5-Jun | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Utah | 26-Jun | 40 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| total | 1107 | 896 | 141 | 66 |
Politics: Public Policy and Bus Riding
Took the Culver City Rapid 6 Bus to work today. The bus was packed to standing room only. In fact, at one of the stops, the driver could take no more people!
What are the costs of running a bus service?
1. Buying/leasing the buses
2. Paying the drivers
3. Paying the staff of the agency running the service
4. Repairing/maintaining the buses
5. Insurance costs for the agency
6. Compressed natural gas fuel costs
How is the service paid for?
1. Fares collected at the point-of-service
2. Subsidies by the tax-payers of which the majority do not use the bus
My 8 mile ride today cost me $1.
Does the $1 fare per person cover the cost of the service?
Probably not.
But are there some other benefits to bus usage aside from transportation?
There is the societal benefit of having fewer commuters on the road. The 100 or so people who came on board the bus at various times are not in cars driving on the road.
Buses use relatively clean natural gas for fuel so there is the benefit of less pollution.
Thus, I accept that the tax-payers at large are subsidizing the bus riders for these benefits.
But the public policy question is, how much subsidies are appropriate for this service?
Came across this article that suggests another aspect of the subsidies is that they are indirect redistribution of wealth since many bus riders are poor. This item calls bus fares a form of taxation.
I'd be really curious if any city bus agency discloses the level of subsidy each rider gets?
I wonder if the MTA (the LA County transit agency) were to publish the subsidies for each city bus service how the numbers would compare? Also, how much is the subsidy for the rail services? If these numbers were broadcasted on the local news or published in the LA Times, I wonder what would be the public reaction? Would there be political pressure to explain any large differences? Would public support for/against public transit change?
I think public transit has a place in our cities. I also accept that subsidies are a part of those operations.
What I would like is some transparency in those services.
What are the costs of running a bus service?
1. Buying/leasing the buses
2. Paying the drivers
3. Paying the staff of the agency running the service
4. Repairing/maintaining the buses
5. Insurance costs for the agency
6. Compressed natural gas fuel costs
How is the service paid for?
1. Fares collected at the point-of-service
2. Subsidies by the tax-payers of which the majority do not use the bus
My 8 mile ride today cost me $1.
Does the $1 fare per person cover the cost of the service?
Probably not.
But are there some other benefits to bus usage aside from transportation?
There is the societal benefit of having fewer commuters on the road. The 100 or so people who came on board the bus at various times are not in cars driving on the road.
Buses use relatively clean natural gas for fuel so there is the benefit of less pollution.
Thus, I accept that the tax-payers at large are subsidizing the bus riders for these benefits.
But the public policy question is, how much subsidies are appropriate for this service?
Came across this article that suggests another aspect of the subsidies is that they are indirect redistribution of wealth since many bus riders are poor. This item calls bus fares a form of taxation.
I'd be really curious if any city bus agency discloses the level of subsidy each rider gets?
I wonder if the MTA (the LA County transit agency) were to publish the subsidies for each city bus service how the numbers would compare? Also, how much is the subsidy for the rail services? If these numbers were broadcasted on the local news or published in the LA Times, I wonder what would be the public reaction? Would there be political pressure to explain any large differences? Would public support for/against public transit change?
I think public transit has a place in our cities. I also accept that subsidies are a part of those operations.
What I would like is some transparency in those services.
Politics: Updated Delegate Math - Can Santorum Win?
Romney holds onto a pretty comfortable lead in the delegate count even after the two losses in Alabama and Mississippi. Admittedly, it isn't much of a rallying cry: the math says I'm going to win!
Nonetheless, as seen in the scenario below where Gingrich and Paul get out and Santorum starts winning at 2-to-1 levels in some states and 50-50 in others, Santorum doesn't surpass Romney. Team Santorum has to EXCEED the estimates below to surpass Romney.
In 1976, Reagan was behind Ford going into the convention and Ford got the nomination 1187 to 1070 on the first ballot. Thus, I don't think it is enough for Santorum to keep Romney below 1144 which is the "magic" number for the 2012 GOP Convention Nomination; he actually has to surpass him to win.
In order to do that, Santorum has to out-perform the scenarios listed below.
In 1976, Reagan was behind Ford going into the convention and Ford got the nomination 1187 to 1070 on the first ballot. Thus, I don't think it is enough for Santorum to keep Romney below 1144 which is the "magic" number for the 2012 GOP Convention Nomination; he actually has to surpass him to win.
In order to do that, Santorum has to out-perform the scenarios listed below.
| state | date | delegates | romney | santorum | gingrich | paul |
| 496 | 236 | 141 | 67 | |||
| Missouri | 17-Mar | 52 | 17 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| Puerto Rico | 18-Mar | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Illinois | 20-Mar | 69 | 34 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 24-Mar | 46 | 15 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 3-Apr | 42 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Maryland | 3-Apr | 37 | 18 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| District of Columbia | 3-Apr | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New York | 24-Apr | 95 | 47 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 24-Apr | 72 | 23 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 24-Apr | 28 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhode Island | 24-Apr | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Delaware | 24-Apr | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 8-May | 55 | 27 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | 8-May | 46 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 8-May | 31 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 15-May | 35 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| Oregon | 15-May | 28 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 22-May | 45 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 22-May | 36 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas | 29-May | 155 | 51 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| California | 5-Jun | 172 | 86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 5-Jun | 50 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 5-Jun | 28 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| Montana | 5-Jun | 26 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 5-Jun | 23 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Utah | 26-Jun | 40 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| total | 1096 | 925 | 141 | 67 |
Politics: Celebrity Look-Alike???
Mitt Romney
Steve Lavin
What do you think?
Mitt Romney and Steve Lavin as twins, har har! Yup, only here at RR can you get such amazing observations about the political scene (not!)!!
I have noticed the media often picks the photos for their news stories where the person is "in action" or something and it is often with a slightly goofy look.
Maybe that will be a future feature of this blog: finding examples of this phenomena?
What do you think?
Mitt Romney and Steve Lavin as twins, har har! Yup, only here at RR can you get such amazing observations about the political scene (not!)!!
I have noticed the media often picks the photos for their news stories where the person is "in action" or something and it is often with a slightly goofy look.
Maybe that will be a future feature of this blog: finding examples of this phenomena?
Politics: Its another primary night
I posted a scenario of delegate allocation earlier.
3 states and 1 territory will be hosted events.
In order for the stop Romney forces to have any chance, they have to out collect delegates by a 2-to-1 margin.
Polling data in Alabama and Mississippi, indicate that Romney is holding his own. If that is indeed the case, the anyone-but-Romney forces may not get the 2:1 margin in delegates they need to stop him.
There is no data on Hawaii or American Samoa which are both caucuses and thus hard to poll. However, if the Romney organization has any presence there and the non-Romney's have none, then it is likely Romney will pick up at least half if not all those delegates.
After tonight's numbers come in, I'll have to re-jig the scenario of delegate allocation I published earlier and see if the Romney nomination train has been slowed down at all.
UPDATE: As expected Romney did not win Alabama or Mississippi and he picked up about 1/3 of the delegates to be had in the 4 locations. Thus, the math remains unchanged. But the third place finishes by Romney fuel the perception that Romney is not closing the deal. In this case, the perception has some merit.
Larry Sabato offers this perspective: Barring a massive, difficult-to-fathom shift in this contest, Mitt Romney has a better than 80 percent chance to be the GOP nominee. No amount of wild tapping on CNN’s magic wall will alter those odds. But what kind of nominee will Romney be? We have all witnessed Romney’s weak performance as a candidate. Yes, he’s constructed a solid organization, but it cannot hide Romney’s unappealing inadequacies. Maybe a bad economy will elect him anyway, but without pure luck tossing the White House into his lap, he needs Rick Santorum’s challenge.
3 states and 1 territory will be hosted events.
In order for the stop Romney forces to have any chance, they have to out collect delegates by a 2-to-1 margin.
Polling data in Alabama and Mississippi, indicate that Romney is holding his own. If that is indeed the case, the anyone-but-Romney forces may not get the 2:1 margin in delegates they need to stop him.
There is no data on Hawaii or American Samoa which are both caucuses and thus hard to poll. However, if the Romney organization has any presence there and the non-Romney's have none, then it is likely Romney will pick up at least half if not all those delegates.
After tonight's numbers come in, I'll have to re-jig the scenario of delegate allocation I published earlier and see if the Romney nomination train has been slowed down at all.
UPDATE: As expected Romney did not win Alabama or Mississippi and he picked up about 1/3 of the delegates to be had in the 4 locations. Thus, the math remains unchanged. But the third place finishes by Romney fuel the perception that Romney is not closing the deal. In this case, the perception has some merit.
Larry Sabato offers this perspective: Barring a massive, difficult-to-fathom shift in this contest, Mitt Romney has a better than 80 percent chance to be the GOP nominee. No amount of wild tapping on CNN’s magic wall will alter those odds. But what kind of nominee will Romney be? We have all witnessed Romney’s weak performance as a candidate. Yes, he’s constructed a solid organization, but it cannot hide Romney’s unappealing inadequacies. Maybe a bad economy will elect him anyway, but without pure luck tossing the White House into his lap, he needs Rick Santorum’s challenge.
Politics: Delegate Math After March 10
The above screen grab is the projected delegate allocations from the March 10 events from RCP.
Romney got 32 while Santorum got 33.
In basketball terminology, Santorum can't afford to trade baskets with Romney. At some point sooner rather than later, he needs to score points AND play defense to cut into Romney's lead.
March 13 is Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii and American Samoa.
Clearly Romney would want to win all four of these races to put the nomination race away but the delegate math says if he splits them with Santorum, he retains his lead and the clock continues to tick down on Santorum.
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