And still more about the recall...

The Davis plan was to keep any "serious" Democrats out of the race so he could campaign against the recall as a tool of the "right wing-nuts." And Sen. Feinstein staying out of it must have had the Davis camp doing cartwheels. Then the reports came out from the afternoon taping of the Leno show that Arnold was in threw the Democrats into a frenzy and very quickly Lt. Gov. Bustamonte jumped right in.


Democrat solidarity is holding form with the pressures put on Insurance Commissioner Garamendi to stay out. After initially saying he wouldn't bow to the pressure he did a 180! You can only imagine the kind of phone calls he was getting from the party leadership: wait your turn or else you will never get a penny to run for dog catcher anywhere in the state!


Meanwhile on the GOP side, the discipline is fraying at the moment. Only Issa decided to fall on his sword and stay out of it. McClintock is in. Uberroth is in. Simon is in. And of course the Terminator is in.


I suspect the state GOP leadership is either unable to impose any kind of discipline and keep people out of the race or they are hedging their bets on the Arnold.


The media and the Democrats will be attacking AS with a ferocity not seen since ... well... when Davis vivisected Riodan in the Republican primary of 2002!


If AS goes postal on some interview show or comes across as clueless or so much dirt about his past is dug up, his poll numbers will melt down fast in which case one of the other "serious" candidates will inherit the challenger's mantle.


But if the big Austrian holds his own and begins to put out some good policy points and looks to be showing he can assemble a team then his numbers will solidify and the other GOPers will back off and throw their support to him.


If AS stumbles, unfortunately for the GOP, Simon will probably not get enough of the independant vote to carry him to victory in the bottom part of the ballot. Uberroth is old news as his claim to fame is the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles. That was 19 years ago! McClintock is a maverick state legistlator and I'm sure a fine candidate but he simply doesn't have the name recognition to get above noise level.


As of this moment, part I of the ballot will be extremely close. The poll I saw last night on KTLA news said 54% favor the recall which is bad news for Davis. However, as the reality of this sinks in, I expect that number to fall and the key numbers to watch is where do these voters go: to the NO vote or to the undecided camp. If they go to the undecided, Davis isn't out danger because bad economic news means they poke the YES chad on election day. If they go to NO then they philosophically have a problem with the recall or they feel the options in part II of the ballot are just unacceptable to them.


If the recall passes, the key is whether Democratic party discipline will hold in backing Bustamonte. Given the huge registratioin advantage they have in the state, he is likely to win the election. However, if Arnold shows himself to be a viable candidate, the independants will flock to him like what happened in Minnesota when Jessie Ventura defeated the Democrat (Hubert Humprey's son) and the Republican (Norm Coleman, former mayor of Minn/St. Paul and now Senator). So it is possible that Arnold can get that kind of ground swell. The key is that he has to prove he isn't a empty suit.