News: What is really happening in Iraq?

If you read this things seem pretty grim. Excerpt:

Hillah, about 60 miles south of Baghdad, has been the site of some of the deadliest bombings, including a double suicide attack on March 6 that killed 120 people.

The attack came a day after at least 16 people died when four car bombs rocked the center of the capital. Three of the blasts took place in one 30-minute span.

If you read this you think progress is being made. Excerpt:

As the tribes turn on al Qaeda and its Islamic State of Iraq, the targeted raids against al Qaeda in Iraq's network of facilitators, bomb makes and leadership cells continue. Today's raids by Coalition forces resulted in the capture of 20 al Qaeda operatives. A series of raids near Taji in Salahadin province resulted in 16 al Qaeda captured, including "a foreign terrorist suspected of involvement in the May 2007 Samarra suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack," while another four operatives were captured near Balad.

I suppose the reality is that in different parts of Iraq, the situation is different. In some places, they really are getting sick and tired of foreign fighters and local insurgents and are starting to turn against them. In other places, they still have a hold on the populace either through fear or loyalty to their cause.

How does one decide what to do next?

If you listen to the war critics, they say, it is time to leave because the trend line is going downhill and we are just going to get caught in the middle of an eventual full blown knife fight between the rival factions so might as well cut our losses now.

I suppose the most optimistic of the war critics will say that when we leave the rival factions will decide it is better to make nice to each other and peace will break out all over the country.

My fear is that the existing Iraq government actually wants a civil war. I'm under the impression that more of the power is in the Shiite bloc and I fear they secretly (or perhaps not so secretly) want to crush the Sunni and exact revenge for all the years they oppressed everyone else.

The "best case scenario" is that the government and most of the people actually do want to work together and what is needed is for foreign fighters and local insurgents to be defeated sufficiently that the average Iraqi on the street no longer fears reporting them to the authorities. They really can't operate in large numbers without either the tacit support of the locals or the locals being intimidated by their presence.