Politics: 2012 Electoral College Projections

Method:
1. Using the RCP state poll averages for data (O, R)
2. R1 = R*1.01 adjusts for tendency of polls to under-sample Republican voters - this is a debated assumption about systemic error in polling
3. und = O - R1 this is the percent undecided voters
4. O1 = O + (und*0.3333) and R2 = R1 + (und*0.6667) accounts for the debated assumption that undecided voters break 2-to-1 for the challenger
5. O1 + R2 to check to see if the numbers add up to 100%
6. O1 - R2 yields the final vote in that state; a negative value means Gov. Romney wins that state while a positive value means President Obama wins that state
7. EV is the electoral vote value of the state
8. O-EV and R-EV gives the various electoral college totals for the candidates if they hold/lose that state.

Result: President Obama 275 Gov. Romney 263

Poll pros who really do this seriously:

538
electoral-vote.com
electionprojection.com

I'm just a "blogger in pajamas" but why should they have all the fun?

The discussion within polling circles this year is whether there is systematic under-sampling of GOP support. Barone believes the polling data is so far off that he is actually calling for a large easy win for Romney.

Why do I think GOP strength is under-detected at some small but definite amount?
(1) During the 1996 campaign Clinton was expected to easily surpass 50% and defeat Dole by double digit percentages in the popular vote. The final numbers were 49.23% to 40.72% which indicated the polls overstated Clinton support. In that election, it didn't matter because it wasn't close enough for that over-estimation to matter.
(2) In looking at the 2004 RCP averages, more polls underestimated the Bush victory margin than over-estimated and in the aggregated numbers showed a differential 0.9% below the actual margin.
(3) In a much weaker under-detection, the 2008 RCP data showed the polls doing pretty well being off in the average by only 0.3% in the differential in favor of the Democrats.
(4) In the context of the 2012 election cycle, in the Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker recall, the polls consistently under-estimated GOP turnout.

We shall have an answer Tuesday November 6 as to (1) whether the undersampling has been occurring this cycle and (2) if so, what degree. Both have to be true for Romney to even have a chance to win.