GOP nomination race as of now .....

The race for the GOP nomination is quaking under the twin shocks of the Paris attacks and the San Bernardino shootings. The atmosphere of fear, understandable but overstated, has shaken up the race solidifying the Trump supporters who think the rest of the GOP isn't tough enough. Carson's support is dropping fast as he is perceived as too mild mannered for these "dangerous times." Cruz and Rubio are the two "mainstream" candidates who seem to have gained some ground while more "traditional" "mainstream" candidates like Jeb, Kasich, and Christie are still afloat but have divided that part of the GOP pie amongst themselves.

Trump has oscillated between 20 to 30% support depending on the poll and current events. There is a poll that has his numbers up to 40% but I'd like to see that result detected by another poll before I believe it. The current terrorism crisis has tipped his support up because people are angry and fearful and Trump is "speaking his mind."

Cruz and Rubio are about 15% in national polling (Cruz has scored higher in recent Iowa polls) meaning 30% of the GOP voters are looking for a younger articulate candidate. Add together the governors (Jeb, Kasich and Christie) they probably total 20% of the GOP voters who want someone with executive experience. Carson is at about 10% reflecting the GOP voters who don't trust the mainstream and think Trump is NUTS. There is probably about 10% that is undecided or very loyal to one of the other candidates in the field.

So in sum:
30% are mad as h@#$ and aren't going to take it anymore supporting Trump
10% don't like the Washington insiders and think Trump is nuts (Carson voters)
30% are looking for a younger face for the GOP (Cruz and Rubio)
20% are looking at governors with experience (Jeb, Katich and Christie)
10% are loyal to a low level candidate or undecided.

The key polling will be January after the holidays are over and the reality of actually casting votes in Iowa and New Hampshire begins to set in. I'm hoping Trump's 30% dips down to 20% and the GOP begins to look seriously at 2 of the 5 "mainstream" candidates. Carson will get 10% I think from sheer loyalty of his supporters.

Scenario #1 Worst Case
Trump holds at 30% Carson gets 10% The remaining 60% of the voters divide among 3 or more "mainstream" candidates leaving Trump still ahead.

Scenario #2 Best case
Trump dips to 20%
Carson gets 10%
The remaining 70% of the GOP begin to rally around 2 of the mainstream candidates such that Trump drops to 3rd place in the polling

Anyway, that is where I think things stand.

We shall see!

Comments