This political season has been full of surprises.
Clearly with the economic troubles and the Republicans having held the White House for two terms, the mood was going to be against any Republican candidate.
By rights, any generic Democrat running for the Presidency should easily have a 10% or bigger lead.
Aside from some blips in the polling (right around the conventions where both sides got a bounce) and the initial onslaught of the financial crisis (when Obama's lead got much larger), Obama's lead has been around 4-8%.
He really should be leading 10 to 15% under normal circumstances.
Some say it is latent racism in the polled voters. Some fear a Bradley Effect will shrink the margin even more when voters actually cast their ballots.
I don't know if there is a way for pollsters to guage such an effect. America has changed over the decades. Sure there will be some people who will NOT vote for Obama simply because of race and some will vote FOR Obama simply because of race so I figure its a wash.
Another thing I would imagine the brain trust at camp Obama is concerned about is whether the young voters will actually turn out. Historically, young voters are the least reliable.
In the end, it might be close because for all of Obama's rhetorical skills, what has he really done?
Clinton jabbed, Obama's claim to fame is a speech he gave in 2004. As the Democrat primary season wore on, Clinton began to win some of the contests as even the Democrats themselves began to show some "buyer's remorse" wondering are we really sure we want to put Obama at the top of the ticket?
If partisans experienced "buyers remorse," I would imagine independent voters might too.
Of course, if more bad news breaks and lands at the doorstep at the Bush White House, it will be a landslide. In 1980, Reagan and Carter were close until the very end when it became clear the Iranian hostage situation was not going to be resolved and voters decided to "take a chance" on an "inexperienced" two-term governor of California and Reagan won easily.
Are the voters ready to pull the lever, fill the bubble, push the touch screen for Obama who hasn't even finished one term as Senator?
I think that is why the race is still close.
UPDATE: Oct 12-14 Gallup Poll numbers show Obama up 7 BUT if you look closer, it could be as high as 8 or as low as 3 depending on which turnout model they use. HT: HH
The "black magic" of polling is the turnout model. Simply put, 55 people you ask may say they will vote for Jane and 45 will vote for Joe. But who actually shows up at the ballot box to vote?! So pollsters develop turnout models and depending on the assumptions of those models that 7 point lead could be actually only 3.
So Obama supporters, as Han Solo said, "Don't get cocky kid!"
And McCain supporters, remember, "It ain't over 'till it's over!"
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