If Obama wins the same states as in 2008 = 358 electoral votes.
I list the states Obama might lose with the top ones most likely and the bottom ones least likely.
Lose Indiana (11) = 347
Lose North Carolina (15) = 332
Lose Florida (29) = 303
Lose Virginia (13) = 290
Lose Colorado (9) = 281
Lose New Hampshire (4) = 277
Lose Iowa (6) = 271
Lose Ohio (18) = 253
Lose Nevada (6) = 247
Lose Wisconsin (10) = 237
Lose Pennsylvania (20) = 217
Lose Michigan (16) = 201
Remember, 270+ out of 528 electoral votes are needed win the Presidency.
Be sure to watch the key Atlantic states: Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. There is no realistic scenario where the President loses re-election if he holds onto any of these three.
The President's mid-west firewall: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. If Romney wins any of those three, the undecideds have clearly broken strongly to him.
If the President's mid-west firewall holds up and Romney sweeps the three Atlantic states, then Ohio will put either side over the top.
It is mathematically possible that the President wins Ohio but loses Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire and falls short with 265 or that Romney wins Ohio but loses Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire and only gets to 266. But most likely, whoever wins Ohio will win at least one of the other four closely contested states.
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