Bin Laden: Dead or Alive?

Everyone has a theory on whether UBL is dead or alive. Recent reports from Al-Jezera seem to say he is still alive. Oddly, though, the messages are only voice and a signed fax. What has happened to the video clips that were the typical MO of UBL messages?

There are at least three possibilities: UBL is alive, UBL is dead or UBL is alive but injured.

If the Al-Queda leadership knows that UBL is dead, they would be very resistant to admitting that UBL was killed and buried in a mountain cave. In order to keep their movement alive and motivated, they have to keep its symbolic leader alive. Thus, the spate of murky messages would be their way of trying to keep UBL "alive" without having to resort to video tapes of a look-alike of UBL. It would be interesting to know if within the CIA, there has been thoughts of producing fake UBL remains and announcing it to the world in the hopes that UBL would be forced into making an appearance to dispel reports of his death. Such a plan of course would probably be rejected because it would entail embarrasment to those who forged the remains!

UBL may well be alive. UBL might simply be waiting for another large operation before making an appearance. Al-Queda has shown considerable tenacity over the years and willingness to wait. However, if indeed UBL is alive and well, why send out these messages where authenticity could be questioned?

Lastly, if UBL was injured and if a video appearance would reveal that, then the recent messages would be the way Al-Queda can get the message out without revealing too much.