I posted this figure a couple of weeks ago on January 14.
Have the numbers changed much in these last 2 weeks?
Taking a look at the RCP poll of polls you find the following ...
National numbers:
Trump 36%
Cruz 19%
Carson 8%
"Establishment" 37%
Iowa figures:
Trump 33%
Cruz 28%
Carson 7%
"Establishment" 32%
New Hampshire
Trump 33%
Cruz 13%
Carson 3%
"Establishment" 51%
The numbers seem pretty static. Small increases here and there (Is a +5 gain by Trump in Iowa significant?). Small decreases here and there.
As we head into the final days before the Iowa caucus, what will happen?
Barring any major developments, I suspect the Trump and Cruz support is pretty well baked in. Thus, the unknown is how effectively those voters will actually turnout and the impact of the weather. My guts tell me that the Cruz supports will have the stronger turnout. Look for a toss-up in Iowa with Trump getting 30% and Cruz 30%. Either will "win" but the margin will be very small.
Other questions:
Will the Carson voters stand by him and send a message? Or will they turn to an "establishment" candidate to make their vote "count?" Or will they stay home in disgust? I'm looking for Carson's number to fall to 4%.
Will there be a movement among non-Trump/Cruz voters to one of the establishment candidates in a practical "stop Trump/Cruz" momentum? At the moment, Rubio appears to be the mostly likely recipient of that option in Iowa. I'm anticipating he will hit 20%. He needs strong 3rd placing showing to stay in the race. If Santorum doesn't get to 10%, he will probably drop out. Likewise, Huckabee needs 10% to stay in.
Kasich/Bush/Christie are betting on New Hampshire. But if any are outpaced by Huckabee/Fiorina/Santorum that would not be a good sign for them. Kasich is banking on a strong third place showing in New Hampshire. Rubio can probably survive a fourth place in NH but not any lower.
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