Politics: Powdered soup of the day

Blatant rip off of Dennis Miller's Soup of the Day ...

Instant political analysis by yours truly ...

Today, split pea in a pouch ...

The Romney scenario is the easiest. Win Iowa and New Hampshire and he rides the wave to the nomination according the business plan they set up at the beginning. But if Huckabee wins Iowa and McCain wins New Hampshire, Romney is done.

Huckabee needs an Iowa win to stay afloat because he will crater in New Hampshire. With the Iowa win, he lives on to fight another day on turf friendlier to him than New Hampshire. He is taking a lot of hits on his foreign policy inexperience. But apparently, his likability index is high which can make up for other concerns people may have.

McCain needs a New Hampshire win to stay afloat.

Giullani has to win *somewhere* before Super Tuesday. At the moment, his support is a mile wide and an inch deep and Romney, Huckabee and McCain are poaching away his support. He was counting on his national name recognition to do well in the "national primary" of Super Tuesday. But if he doesn't win anywhere before then confidence will fall and he will be done.

Thompson needs a surprise showing in Iowa or he is done. He has got to replicate the back of the pickup truck retail politics that got him into the Senate. He does that he stays in the running.

UPDATE: If these numbers are for real, Thompson is done. Thompson and McCain draw from the same independent, straight talk, maverick style voters. Looks like McCain is getting them back. He may be taking votes from the Romney supporters who can't stand Huckabee too.

UPDATE: The Strategic Vision poll has Thompson making the big gains not McCain. Who knows what will happen on a cold January Iowa night!

Meanwhile on the Democratic side. Clinton needs a knockdown win in Iowa and a knockout win in New Hampshire. Like Romney, she is depending on this strategy.

Edwards needs an Iowa win or he is done. He is the Huckabee on the Democratic side.

Obama is playing with house money. A good showing keeps him at the table for a Veep slot and a future say in the party. And if he breaks through with an upset in Iowa or New Hampshire, he could make history.