Politics: USA presidential elections by the numbers

If you know your US history and politics, you know that it is the electoral votes that matter.

However, the popular vote does tell you a bit about the sentiment of the nation.

If you look back, since 1980, how often do you think the elected president got 52.5 % or more of the popular votes?

Think about that: if the elected president got 52.5% of the popular vote that means 47.5% of the people who voted, voted for somebody else (either the major opponent or a collection of minor party candidates). Or put another way, 525 out of 1000 voted for the winner and 475 voted for the various opponents. Would you consider that a convincing win?

Well, if you check out the numbers, since 1980 ...

Only 2 presidential candidates won with more than 52.5% of the popular vote. That would be Ronald Reagan in 1984 and George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Since that time, the Republican candidate has only cracked the 50% line once, in 2004.

On the Democratic side the numbers are even more striking. When was the last time you think a Democratic candidate for president pulled in more than 52.5% of the popular vote?

You have to go all the way back to LBJ in 1964!

Since then, only 2 candidates have scratched at the 50% line, Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1996.

The reality is that presidential politics is fought at the 50% line and has been for quite some time.

In a sense that is part of the beauty of the generally hated and misunderstood electoral college: if you win in enough places across the country, a narrow popular vote victory can be translated into a larger electoral college victory.

The founding fathers may have dreamed up the electoral college for practical reasons (transportation and communications were slow) or elitist reasons (the masses can't be trusted) but the unintended consequence has been that multi-party fragmentation has largely been avoided and narrow popular vote victories could be given a boost with larger electoral college victories.

But in the last two elections, it has been so close that that didn't happen.

We really are a nation divided politically.

It will be interesting to see how 2008 plays out.

Appendix:

If you look at the numbers:
Republican candidate percent popular vote
1980 - 50.7
1984 - 58.8
1988 - 53.4
1992 - 37.7
1996 - 42
2000 - 47.87
2004 - 52

Democratic candidate percent popular vote
1960 - 49.7
1964 - 61.1
1968 - 42.7
1972 - 37.5
1976 - 50.1
1980 - 41
1984 - 40.6
1988 - 45.6
1992 - 43.3
1996 - 50
2000 - 48.38
2004 - 48