The polling numbers for Super Tuesday indicate that Trump is likely headed toward numerous victories.
Polls indicating likely Trump win
Virginia > 10%, 3 polls
Tennessee > 10%, 1 poll
Vermont > 10%, 1 poll
Georgia > 10%, 7 polls
Massachusetts > 10%, 4 polls
Oklahoma < 10%, 2 polls
Alabama > 10%, 3 polls
Recent data (2/28) indicating likely Cruz win
Texas < 10%, 7 polls
Limited data indicating possible close voting
Arkansas, 1 poll in early February
Poor data (caucus states)
Minnesota, polls outdated
Colorado, no polls in RCP
Alaska, polls outdated
As a blogger in the #NeverTrump category, I am watching to see if Rubio and Cruz can make in roads somewhere, anywhere! Jen Rubin over at WaPo is discussing the formation of a new party as the GOP explodes.
Rubin:
As we have discussed, if Trump is the nominee — and we are still not there yet, as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) rises to the occasion — all sorts of interesting possibilities unfold. A third presidential candidate is quite likely, but more important, a new party. Let’s face it: There is a lot deserving of abandonment in the GOP right now. Nativism has thoroughly infected its agenda, turning otherwise well-rounded conservatives into small-minded xenophobes. The inability to recognize lost causes (reversing gay marriage) and the refusal to address real ones (e.g. poverty) have paralyzed too many Republicans. The search for ideological purity and support for fringe candidates as well as a nihilistic approach to government personified in the shutdown have gripped vast swaths of the party. The opportunity now may present itself to leave all of this behind, to form a 21st-century party reflective of today’s United States and with a coherent vision of governance.[......]The answer should come from the reform agenda that House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is championing. As he describes it, his effort involves applying conservative principles to a range of real-world problems, including poverty, declining upward mobility, stagnant wages, low economic, education (both K-12 and higher ed) and loss of American influence and standing in the world. We have discussed at length its intellectual underpinnings in the reform conservative movement. But constitutionalists need not fret. Both Ryan and the larger reform conservative effort rely on restoring the proper balance between federal and state power and between executive and legislative action. However, as former Texas governor Rick Perry elegantly put it during his run, conservatives should be as concerned with the 14th Amendment as they are with the 10th.
McArdle in regards to the #NeverTrump voters she heard from:
The main arguments were his authoritarianism, his lack of any principle besides the further aggrandizement of one Donald J. Trump, his racism and misogyny, and his erratic behavior, which led a whole lot of people to write that they were afraid to have him anywhere within a thousand miles of the nuclear launch codes.[.....]Another writer, who understood why people are angry at the policy establishment and Washington elites more generally, added “I personally am not willing to sacrifice my country and more specifically the dignity of the office that represents it, just to make a point.”[.......]This was what surprised me most about the whole exercise. I’d expected people to say they’d sit out the election; I didn’t expect that around a dozen would say that if Trump was the nominee, they would change their registration.
SEC Primary Day March 1, 2016
Am guessing it is pretty much over on the Democratic side.
Clinton should have a easy and sizable win over Sanders in South Carolina.
Of the March 1 primary contests for the Democrats, Sanders will win in Vermont as that is his home state. He may finish close or even win in Massachusetts. But everywhere else, he is looking at 10 to 20 percentage point defeats.
On the GOP side, here is a list of the states involved. Polling data exists for some states while it is sparse in others.
Alabama - no recent data
Alaska - caucus, limited data and hard to poll anyway
Arkansas - limited data show 3-way race
Georgia - recent data has Trump ahead
Massachusetts - recent data has Trump ahead
Minnesota - caucus, limited data and hard to pool anyway
Oklahoma - limited data show 3-way race
Tennessee - no recent data
Texas - recent data show Cruz ahead
Vermont - limited data but Trump ahead
Virginia - recent data has Trump ahead
Cruz definitely needs to win Texas and would want to win at least 1 or 2 other states. Rubio needs a win somewhere, anywhere. As for Trump, if he carries 11 for 11, it is over. One might even say 10 of 11 (losing Texas), it is over.
Update: I hear there are some complicated rules about Texas. If Cruz wins with 50%+1 then he would get all the delegates in Texas. Otherwise, it is proportional. Cruz needs a win of any size but prefers a bigger win.
7 of 11 (Cruz winning Texas and Cruz/Rubio breaking through in 3 other states), Trump would retain front runner status. However, if he were to carry only 6 of 11 then either Cruz or Rubio has begun to make inroads in the nomination process and the despair over Trump might recede.
Update: Another factor I have heard is "threshold." If one is below some cut-off (15 or 20%) then that candidate gets no delegates. Thus, winning a state is preferable but the key is to collect delegates and minimize the number that Trump gathers. Although Cruz wants to win Texas and somewhere else as does Rubio wants to win anywhere, the real key is to collect delegates. For Cruz or Rubio to get shut out of delegates from any state would be a problem for them. They will hope to capture enough delegates so that Trump racks up 50% or fewer of the delegates from Super Tuesday.
Clinton should have a easy and sizable win over Sanders in South Carolina.
Of the March 1 primary contests for the Democrats, Sanders will win in Vermont as that is his home state. He may finish close or even win in Massachusetts. But everywhere else, he is looking at 10 to 20 percentage point defeats.
On the GOP side, here is a list of the states involved. Polling data exists for some states while it is sparse in others.
Alabama - no recent data
Alaska - caucus, limited data and hard to poll anyway
Arkansas - limited data show 3-way race
Georgia - recent data has Trump ahead
Massachusetts - recent data has Trump ahead
Minnesota - caucus, limited data and hard to pool anyway
Oklahoma - limited data show 3-way race
Tennessee - no recent data
Texas - recent data show Cruz ahead
Vermont - limited data but Trump ahead
Virginia - recent data has Trump ahead
Cruz definitely needs to win Texas and would want to win at least 1 or 2 other states. Rubio needs a win somewhere, anywhere. As for Trump, if he carries 11 for 11, it is over. One might even say 10 of 11 (losing Texas), it is over.
Update: I hear there are some complicated rules about Texas. If Cruz wins with 50%+1 then he would get all the delegates in Texas. Otherwise, it is proportional. Cruz needs a win of any size but prefers a bigger win.
Update: Another factor I have heard is "threshold." If one is below some cut-off (15 or 20%) then that candidate gets no delegates. Thus, winning a state is preferable but the key is to collect delegates and minimize the number that Trump gathers. Although Cruz wants to win Texas and somewhere else as does Rubio wants to win anywhere, the real key is to collect delegates. For Cruz or Rubio to get shut out of delegates from any state would be a problem for them. They will hope to capture enough delegates so that Trump racks up 50% or fewer of the delegates from Super Tuesday.
Liverpool Klopp Episode 33 - The Incredibles
Previously LFC stunned Manchester City 4-1! However, that was way back on November 21, 2015.
Can Klopp's crew run the Citizens off the pitch again with the League Cup on the line?
Will post periodically in here in the build-up to the big game!
Selection options for Klopp: Good news in that some of the injured players have been training and might be options for selection on Sunday. Clearly, this is a decision between the medical staff and coaches. Do these returning players pass the "eyeball" test?
The Lucas-Sakho center back pair had a clean sheet on Thursday. Does Klopp go to them again? My guts tell me to stick with what has worked. If a change were to be made, perhaps Skrtel in for Lucas.
As for the midfield of Milner-Henderson-Can, Klopp has to decide if Henderson who hasn't been 100% since coming back from his injuries is still the better option than having Milner play central-mid and bringing in Lallana or Ibe at the wide. The other question mark is probably Can. In reading some post-game reports, he hasn't been as effective of late and may need a break. Again, I'd say Lallana or Ibe gets that spot if Can isn't up to speed.
I think Klopp sticks with Milner-Henderson-Can as that has been working. If he senses weariness in Henderson or Can, they will get substituted at the hour mark.
The front three remains Firmino, Sturridge, and Coutinho with Origi as needed in the 2nd half. Looks like Benteke is the odd man out.
UPDATE: Klopp shares how he lets the team know who is starting. So who is starting? The Echo writers offer their thoughts. Over at the UK Guardian, a item-by-item look a the likely match-ups on the field.
Recap: *Sigh* heartbreak hotel for Liverpool and their fans as they make the long ride back home after salvaging a draw late in the second half on Coutinho's goal. Credit LFC for the fight to the end mentality. A lively extra-time can to nothing for both sides and the game fell to spot kicks where Willy Caballero made three saves to end the match in favor of City.
Losing Sakho early to injuries didn't help. Lucas as make shift center-back continues to do well. Mignolet's goal keeping cost them a goal but he also made some key saves to keep them in the game. All in all, a good effort but not enough.
The club now must dust off and look to the future matches. A top-four in the EPL is unlikely so Europa League will be the priority. I would anticipate after this current run of fairly stable starting XI's, Klopp will experiment some in the EPL games to see if he can identify a stronger line-up for the Europa League. LFC vs. Man City again (Mar 2) in EPL play. Mar 6 against Palace. Mar 10 versus Man U in Europa League leg one. Mar 13 against Chelsea. Mar 17 leg two vs Man U. Southampton on Mar 20.
Update: Was listening to BBC 5 Live Sport's Monday Night Club on podcast and they discussed the LFC PK selection. They were surprised that Sturridge, Henderson, and Milner weren't among the first three to kick. Their feeling was that you put your best shooters early to set the tone. From what I heard Sturridge was cramping up and wasn't fit to take one. Don't know how Henderson's foot injury was effecting him. If he was ready to go, it would be surprising that the Captain wasn't among the first few PK takers. The analysts suspected Milner was the fifth on the list but since Caballero saved the middle three, Milner didn't get a chance.
Liverpool Klopp Episode 32 - The Right Stuff
Key players aren't yet 100% (Sturridge and Coutinho) and others won't be available for selection. Nonetheless, they should still have "the right stuff?"
They need to take the field and use their speed and skill and take it to Augsburg in front of the Anfield faithful. Last time in front of the Anfield fans, there was the "walkout" and the team flaked out and surrendered two goals snatching a draw from the jaws of victory.
No walk-outs by the fans this time are expected!
Barring any injuries, there should be no change in line up with Sturridge, Firmino, Coutinho leading the way. At midfield, Milner, Henderson, and Can. In defense, Clyne, Toure, Sakho, and Moreno. Would think LFC will be aggressive early to seek the lead and make Augsburg chase the game.
Likely subs, Origi and Ibe. Benteke will get in if they need a late goal otherwise Lucas enters to help in holding onto a lead.
Of course, another scenario is if the match goes to extra time and penalty kicks. What are the coaching moves in a game heading into extra time? Do you hold back one sub for entry after full-time?
Here’s tonight’s #LFC starting line-up and subs in full for the clash with @FCAugsburg pic.twitter.com/9mXbKTKydk— Liverpool FC (@LFC) February 25, 2016
USA TV coverage at FS1. Internet radio through liverpoolfc.com. Snarky live blogging over at UK Guardian.
5' Milner buries the PK for a handball in the box!
Wasn't near the computer for the rest of the game. But am glad to see that the 1-0 held up! My understanding of the "away goal" rule is that if Augsburg had tied the game 1-1, they would win the game because their goal was an "away goal." In reading the post-game summaries, LFC dominated possessions and shots but as usual didn't cash in the chances. Seems I've written that phrase before! Augsburg had a couple of opportunities and LFC's defense was able to turn them aside. So onto the 16 in Europa League. And onto League Cup final on Sunday. Go Liverpool!
LFC's next Europa League opponent is their long time rivals Manchester United!
LA Galaxy and the Concacaf Champions League
Wednesday night 7pm PST, the LA Galaxy take on Santos Laguna in leg 1 of the Concacaf Champions League (CCL) quarter-finals. USA TV coverage on FS1.
Historically, Liga MX has dominated the competition and one would guess they are favored in this contest.
The Galaxy have added a lot of players and it isn't clear they have gotten used to playing together yet. Additionally, the team is still working up fitness levels for the MLS regular season which is a couple weeks away.
Meanwhile, Liga MX has been playing league games and their players are in regular season form.
Though expectations are higher for MLS, analysts remain realistic about the challenges ahead.
Caught about the last 15 minutes of the match. Looks like both sides were content with the 0-0 score line. Galaxy didn't look like they were pushing forward very much. Perhaps, they were already a bit weary by that point.
Looking at the match highlights below, the chances seemed pretty even though I think the Galaxy opportunities seemed a bit better.
Update: More detailed analysis of LA Galaxy performance can be found at LAGConfidential. Steffen was generally happy with how they did. Excerpt:
There was a lot to learned from the Galaxy's first competitive match of 2015. For starters, the Steven Gerrard and Nigel de Jong central midfield tandem got off to a great start.[.....]Bruce opted to play it safe and play Giovani dos Santos as a striker and Gyasi Zardes as a winger, despite his stated intentions of playing Gio on the wing this year. Unsurprisingly, this set-up was as anemic as it was at the end of last season when Bruce stubbornly road it to an early playoff exit.
Can provided brief comments on each player who had minutes.
Excerpt about the additions to last year's team:
Kennedy - 6.5 Commanded his box on several plays taking the ball out of the air and using his body to shove players aside. Played more physical than previous goalkeepers Penedo and Ricketts, and had 3 saves on 4 shots on goal (with Dos Santos bailing him out on the last). Wasn't challenged too much on the saves and still looks like he's finding his footing.
Cole - 6.5 A pleasant surprise. Santos Laguna abandoned attacking down his side. Tidy on the ball with a cheeky effort at goal. Several recoveries, interceptions and tackles won.
Van Damme - 6.5 A tale of two sides that offset one another, Van Damme was a physical beast commanding the backline, especially in the air, but also relied heavily on boot ball rather than retaining possession (over 15 missed passes from the back). Had 4 clearances and 5 critical interceptions near the box, including a diving header to clear a decent cross. Earned a yellow card, but had the best shot on goal denied only by an excellent save from Santos Laguna's goalkeeper.
de Jong - 7.5 His passing map looks like Juninho's. That's meant in the best way possible. All over the pitch, fantastic use of slide tackles, nice balance with Gerrard in the middle. He made the Galaxy go, and we should be excited to see him in Mexico next week.
Boateng - 5 He's fast, he takes on defenders, had a decent shot on goal after Keane threaded him through, but he needs to stay on his feet and get back on defense without looking like a headless chicken.
Historically, Liga MX has dominated the competition and one would guess they are favored in this contest.
The Galaxy have added a lot of players and it isn't clear they have gotten used to playing together yet. Additionally, the team is still working up fitness levels for the MLS regular season which is a couple weeks away.
Meanwhile, Liga MX has been playing league games and their players are in regular season form.
Though expectations are higher for MLS, analysts remain realistic about the challenges ahead.
Caught about the last 15 minutes of the match. Looks like both sides were content with the 0-0 score line. Galaxy didn't look like they were pushing forward very much. Perhaps, they were already a bit weary by that point.
Looking at the match highlights below, the chances seemed pretty even though I think the Galaxy opportunities seemed a bit better.
Update: More detailed analysis of LA Galaxy performance can be found at LAGConfidential. Steffen was generally happy with how they did. Excerpt:
There was a lot to learned from the Galaxy's first competitive match of 2015. For starters, the Steven Gerrard and Nigel de Jong central midfield tandem got off to a great start.[.....]Bruce opted to play it safe and play Giovani dos Santos as a striker and Gyasi Zardes as a winger, despite his stated intentions of playing Gio on the wing this year. Unsurprisingly, this set-up was as anemic as it was at the end of last season when Bruce stubbornly road it to an early playoff exit.
Can provided brief comments on each player who had minutes.
Excerpt about the additions to last year's team:
Kennedy - 6.5 Commanded his box on several plays taking the ball out of the air and using his body to shove players aside. Played more physical than previous goalkeepers Penedo and Ricketts, and had 3 saves on 4 shots on goal (with Dos Santos bailing him out on the last). Wasn't challenged too much on the saves and still looks like he's finding his footing.
Cole - 6.5 A pleasant surprise. Santos Laguna abandoned attacking down his side. Tidy on the ball with a cheeky effort at goal. Several recoveries, interceptions and tackles won.
Van Damme - 6.5 A tale of two sides that offset one another, Van Damme was a physical beast commanding the backline, especially in the air, but also relied heavily on boot ball rather than retaining possession (over 15 missed passes from the back). Had 4 clearances and 5 critical interceptions near the box, including a diving header to clear a decent cross. Earned a yellow card, but had the best shot on goal denied only by an excellent save from Santos Laguna's goalkeeper.
de Jong - 7.5 His passing map looks like Juninho's. That's meant in the best way possible. All over the pitch, fantastic use of slide tackles, nice balance with Gerrard in the middle. He made the Galaxy go, and we should be excited to see him in Mexico next week.
Boateng - 5 He's fast, he takes on defenders, had a decent shot on goal after Keane threaded him through, but he needs to stay on his feet and get back on defense without looking like a headless chicken.
All Trump All the Time
What can you say?
The country is in a foul mood.
Sanders isn't going to get the Democratic nomination but he will be a thorn in Clinton's side probably throughout the nomination process.
Trump, if nothing changes, is headed for the Republican nomination. National Review sounded the alarm back in January 21, 2016. Perhaps it is already too late for the GOP to stop him.
The fact that these two figures are doing so well is an indication of the angry feeling among the voters disenchanted with the way things are working in Washington DC.
Here is a round up of three articles about Trump I came across today.
LA Times McManus acknowledges Trump's political acumen.
Excerpt:
He's turned out to be a disciplined candidate with a clear strategy. He's not the unguided missile he once appeared to be. His attacks on other candidates may have looked petulant, but it's now clear that they were calculated. For much of last year, Trump concentrated his fire on Jeb Bush, who was long considered a front-runner. When Bush faded, Trump moved his sights to Cruz, who was trying a little too obviously to steal Trump voters. There was nothing random about the choice of targets. “Ted is hanging around the top too long,” Trump told aides in January, according to the Wall Street Journal. “Time to take him down.” If the pattern holds, Trump's next punching bag will be Rubio, who's been unofficially anointed as the Great Establishment Hope. You can expect Trump to warn voters that Rubio is in the pocket of the big-money donors who are frantically pumping cash into his campaign. Besides, as Trump said last year (at a time when Rubio was surging): “Marco Rubio, he's like a kid.... He sweats more than any young person I've ever seen.”
Tucker Carlson over at Politico also acknowledges Trump's reading of the foul mood of the electorate.
Excerpt:
American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump. In the case of Trump, though, the GOP shares the blame, and not just because his fellow Republicans misdirected their ad buys or waited so long to criticize him. Trump is in part a reaction to the intellectual corruption of the Republican Party. That ought to be obvious to his critics, yet somehow it isn’t. [......] On immigration policy, party elders were caught completely by surprise. Even canny operators like Ted Cruz didn’t appreciate the depth of voter anger on the subject. And why would they? If you live in an affluent ZIP code, it’s hard to see a downside to mass low-wage immigration. Your kids don’t go to public school. You don’t take the bus or use the emergency room for health care. No immigrant is competing for your job. (The day Hondurans start getting hired as green energy lobbyists is the day my neighbors become nativists.) Plus, you get cheap servants, and get to feel welcoming and virtuous while paying them less per hour than your kids make at a summer job on Nantucket. It’s all good. [......] When was the last time you stopped yourself from saying something you believed to be true for fear of being punished or criticized for saying it? If you live in America, it probably hasn’t been long. That’s not just a talking point about political correctness. It’s the central problem with our national conversation, the main reason our debates are so stilted and useless. You can’t fix a problem if you don’t have the words to describe it. You can’t even think about it clearly.
On last piece to share from WaPo Danielle Allen, a Clinton supporter, recognizes that not only is Trump likely to get the GOP nomination, he has a possibility of actually becoming president.
Excerpt:
Trump is rising by taking advantage of a divided country. The truth is that the vast majority of voting Americans think that Trump is unacceptable as a presidential candidate, but we are split by strong partisan ideologies and cannot coordinate a solution to stop him. Similarly, a significant part of voting Republicans think that Trump is unacceptable, but they too, thus far, have been unable to coordinate a solution. Trump is exploiting the fact that we cannot unite across our ideological divides.[......]Republicans, you cannot count on the Democrats to stop Trump. I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, and I intend to vote for her, but it is also the case that she is a candidate with significant weaknesses, as your party knows quite well. The result of a head-to-head contest between Clinton and Trump would be unpredictable. Trump has to be blocked in your primary.[......]We, the people, need to find somewhere, buried in the recesses of our fading memories, the capacity to make common cause against this formidable threat to our equally shared liberties. The time is now.
The reach of this blog is small but am going on the record that this pajama wearing blogger is not going to be supporting Trump.
The country is in a foul mood.
Sanders isn't going to get the Democratic nomination but he will be a thorn in Clinton's side probably throughout the nomination process.
Trump, if nothing changes, is headed for the Republican nomination. National Review sounded the alarm back in January 21, 2016. Perhaps it is already too late for the GOP to stop him.
The fact that these two figures are doing so well is an indication of the angry feeling among the voters disenchanted with the way things are working in Washington DC.
Here is a round up of three articles about Trump I came across today.
LA Times McManus acknowledges Trump's political acumen.
Excerpt:
He's turned out to be a disciplined candidate with a clear strategy. He's not the unguided missile he once appeared to be. His attacks on other candidates may have looked petulant, but it's now clear that they were calculated. For much of last year, Trump concentrated his fire on Jeb Bush, who was long considered a front-runner. When Bush faded, Trump moved his sights to Cruz, who was trying a little too obviously to steal Trump voters. There was nothing random about the choice of targets. “Ted is hanging around the top too long,” Trump told aides in January, according to the Wall Street Journal. “Time to take him down.” If the pattern holds, Trump's next punching bag will be Rubio, who's been unofficially anointed as the Great Establishment Hope. You can expect Trump to warn voters that Rubio is in the pocket of the big-money donors who are frantically pumping cash into his campaign. Besides, as Trump said last year (at a time when Rubio was surging): “Marco Rubio, he's like a kid.... He sweats more than any young person I've ever seen.”
Tucker Carlson over at Politico also acknowledges Trump's reading of the foul mood of the electorate.
Excerpt:
American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump. In the case of Trump, though, the GOP shares the blame, and not just because his fellow Republicans misdirected their ad buys or waited so long to criticize him. Trump is in part a reaction to the intellectual corruption of the Republican Party. That ought to be obvious to his critics, yet somehow it isn’t. [......] On immigration policy, party elders were caught completely by surprise. Even canny operators like Ted Cruz didn’t appreciate the depth of voter anger on the subject. And why would they? If you live in an affluent ZIP code, it’s hard to see a downside to mass low-wage immigration. Your kids don’t go to public school. You don’t take the bus or use the emergency room for health care. No immigrant is competing for your job. (The day Hondurans start getting hired as green energy lobbyists is the day my neighbors become nativists.) Plus, you get cheap servants, and get to feel welcoming and virtuous while paying them less per hour than your kids make at a summer job on Nantucket. It’s all good. [......] When was the last time you stopped yourself from saying something you believed to be true for fear of being punished or criticized for saying it? If you live in America, it probably hasn’t been long. That’s not just a talking point about political correctness. It’s the central problem with our national conversation, the main reason our debates are so stilted and useless. You can’t fix a problem if you don’t have the words to describe it. You can’t even think about it clearly.
On last piece to share from WaPo Danielle Allen, a Clinton supporter, recognizes that not only is Trump likely to get the GOP nomination, he has a possibility of actually becoming president.
Excerpt:
Trump is rising by taking advantage of a divided country. The truth is that the vast majority of voting Americans think that Trump is unacceptable as a presidential candidate, but we are split by strong partisan ideologies and cannot coordinate a solution to stop him. Similarly, a significant part of voting Republicans think that Trump is unacceptable, but they too, thus far, have been unable to coordinate a solution. Trump is exploiting the fact that we cannot unite across our ideological divides.[......]Republicans, you cannot count on the Democrats to stop Trump. I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, and I intend to vote for her, but it is also the case that she is a candidate with significant weaknesses, as your party knows quite well. The result of a head-to-head contest between Clinton and Trump would be unpredictable. Trump has to be blocked in your primary.[......]We, the people, need to find somewhere, buried in the recesses of our fading memories, the capacity to make common cause against this formidable threat to our equally shared liberties. The time is now.
The reach of this blog is small but am going on the record that this pajama wearing blogger is not going to be supporting Trump.
The GOP Heading into a Dead-End?
Scenarios:
1. Trump wins the nomination and loses the November election.
2. Trump is denied the GOP nomination when support finally gathers around one of his opponents. However, that candidate is so weakened by the process that the Democrats win the November election.
3. Trump is denied the GOP nomination when support finally gathers around one of his opponents. Trump decides to do a third-party run and the Democrats win the November election.
In any of the 3 scenarios, it is possible that the GOP will lose the Senate as well. And if things really go downhill, the House will be flipped to the Democrats.
Awhile back, I made the following speculations.
Probably after New Hampshire and almost certainly after South Carolina, the Establishment will be faced with the following possibilities:
1. One of the establishment candidates has clearly broken through and it is a 3-candidate race with Trump/Cruz/Establishment going forward.
2. None of the Establishment candidates has broken through and the only alternative is to throw support to Cruz to stop Trump.
3. Cruz stumbles and Trump is marching and the Establishment candidates will need to lock themselves in a room and decide which one of their number will be the one to try to stop Trump.
Where we stand today:
Scenario 1 - Kasich remains in with Rubio from the establishment lane so it is almost a 3-candidate race but not quite.
Scenario 2 - Cruz's support seems to be slipping and so he may no longer be the receptacle of the anti-Trump vote
Scenario 3 - Cruz's problems of late can fall into this scenario but the Establishment hasn't lined up behind Rubio entirely and Kasich and Carson remain in the race.
Bottom line is that if the status quo remains in place, Trump gets the nomination.
1. Trump wins the nomination and loses the November election.
2. Trump is denied the GOP nomination when support finally gathers around one of his opponents. However, that candidate is so weakened by the process that the Democrats win the November election.
3. Trump is denied the GOP nomination when support finally gathers around one of his opponents. Trump decides to do a third-party run and the Democrats win the November election.
In any of the 3 scenarios, it is possible that the GOP will lose the Senate as well. And if things really go downhill, the House will be flipped to the Democrats.
Awhile back, I made the following speculations.
Probably after New Hampshire and almost certainly after South Carolina, the Establishment will be faced with the following possibilities:
1. One of the establishment candidates has clearly broken through and it is a 3-candidate race with Trump/Cruz/Establishment going forward.
2. None of the Establishment candidates has broken through and the only alternative is to throw support to Cruz to stop Trump.
3. Cruz stumbles and Trump is marching and the Establishment candidates will need to lock themselves in a room and decide which one of their number will be the one to try to stop Trump.
Where we stand today:
Scenario 1 - Kasich remains in with Rubio from the establishment lane so it is almost a 3-candidate race but not quite.
Scenario 2 - Cruz's support seems to be slipping and so he may no longer be the receptacle of the anti-Trump vote
Scenario 3 - Cruz's problems of late can fall into this scenario but the Establishment hasn't lined up behind Rubio entirely and Kasich and Carson remain in the race.
Bottom line is that if the status quo remains in place, Trump gets the nomination.
This Voter's Discontentment
Of the current viable candidates, I find problems with each one and will not vote with much enthusiasm when the time comes for Californians to vote. I remain undecided.
Problem with each candidate:
Clinton - none of the strengths of Bill and all his liabilities
Sanders - socialism is great until you run out of other people's money
Cruz - sharp elbows not a "happy warrior"
Rubio - great biography but what has he done? (the same could have been said of Obama in 2008)
Trump - are you serious?
Problem with each candidate:
Clinton - none of the strengths of Bill and all his liabilities
Sanders - socialism is great until you run out of other people's money
Cruz - sharp elbows not a "happy warrior"
Rubio - great biography but what has he done? (the same could have been said of Obama in 2008)
Trump - are you serious?
Guessing GOP Nevada Caucus
Very little polling data in Nevada for the caucus on Tuesday.
Until the race is down to a 2-way or 3-way race, Trump will probably keep racking up the wins.
Update: Here is an item that maps out how Trump can reach the needed delegates even in a three-way race.
Update: sounds like the Nevada caucus is not very well run. I suppose that is why hardly anyone is attempting to poll Nevada.
Prediction
Trump 34%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 27%
everyone else combined 11%
Actual
Trump 46%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 21%
everyone else 9%
Update: Have clearly underestimated Trump's popularity and staying power. In national polling, Sanders is logging about 42% and Trump 34%. This is an indication with the dissatisfaction with the establishment.
I wonder if California will have a say in the nomination races?
I registered to vote when I turned 18 and was an "independent" (decline to state - in California). That was way back in 1981. As such, I did not vote in partisan primary elections for a long time because I was not affiliated with any party.
In 1996, while living in Maryland, I registered as a Republican because I wanted to vote in a primary. I voted for Steve Forbes as a protest vote. Bob Dole was the expected nominee and he indeed won. Forbes was a supporter of the flat tax. In my mind, supporting him was a way to say, the tax code needs fixing because it is loophole filled and a magnet for special interest lobbying. Since then I have retained my Republican registration.
In 2000, I was back in California and the state moved up its primary but by then Bush was pretty much in control of the race. I cast my ballot for John McCain since he represented an independent voice within the GOP.
In 2008, I supported Romney over McCain because I thought McCain was getting to be a stale figure on the political scene and the business minded Romney seemed a good choice. California moved its primary up that year as well but McCain sealed the deal with big wins throughout the USA on that Super Tuesday.
I supported Romney again in 2012.
Not looking forward to voting in 2016.
Until the race is down to a 2-way or 3-way race, Trump will probably keep racking up the wins.
Update: Here is an item that maps out how Trump can reach the needed delegates even in a three-way race.
Update: sounds like the Nevada caucus is not very well run. I suppose that is why hardly anyone is attempting to poll Nevada.
Prediction
Trump 34%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 27%
everyone else combined 11%
Actual
Trump 46%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 21%
everyone else 9%
Update: Have clearly underestimated Trump's popularity and staying power. In national polling, Sanders is logging about 42% and Trump 34%. This is an indication with the dissatisfaction with the establishment.
I wonder if California will have a say in the nomination races?
I registered to vote when I turned 18 and was an "independent" (decline to state - in California). That was way back in 1981. As such, I did not vote in partisan primary elections for a long time because I was not affiliated with any party.
In 1996, while living in Maryland, I registered as a Republican because I wanted to vote in a primary. I voted for Steve Forbes as a protest vote. Bob Dole was the expected nominee and he indeed won. Forbes was a supporter of the flat tax. In my mind, supporting him was a way to say, the tax code needs fixing because it is loophole filled and a magnet for special interest lobbying. Since then I have retained my Republican registration.
In 2000, I was back in California and the state moved up its primary but by then Bush was pretty much in control of the race. I cast my ballot for John McCain since he represented an independent voice within the GOP.
In 2008, I supported Romney over McCain because I thought McCain was getting to be a stale figure on the political scene and the business minded Romney seemed a good choice. California moved its primary up that year as well but McCain sealed the deal with big wins throughout the USA on that Super Tuesday.
I supported Romney again in 2012.
Not looking forward to voting in 2016.
Guessing the Nevada and South Carolina Results
The Democrats have a caucus on Saturday in Nevada. The polling data has it very close. I suspect it will be close but probably not Iowa close.
Prediction:
Clinton 50
Sanders 49
Actual:
Clinton 53
Sanders 47
Iowa and New Hampshire might well be the high water mark for Sanders. There is no indication of a surge for Sanders in South Carolina. In the national polling data, two of five recent polls have Sanders either close or leading while three of five have Clinton with a modest but solid lead. Thus, he would probably need a surprise upset in Nevada to have a chance at changing the narrative. The other game changer would be a new scandal, more smoke/fire from existing ones or some health issue.
Update: Barring new scandal, more smoke/fire from existing ones or some health issue, it is over. So far, there is no indication Sanders is moving the needle in South Carolina. He will run to the end to try to influence the party but that is all she wrote.
As for the Republicans, they have a primary in South Carolina. According to the polls, Trump will probably hold on for the win for the same reason as in New Hampshire - his opponents dividing up the rest of the voters.
The open questions:
Will the endorsement of Rubio by Gov. Haley carry Rubio to a number two finish edging out Cruz at the lean to the tape?
Will Kasich and/or Bush do well enough to stay in the race?
My guess is that Rubio will finish number two over Cruz fairly easily.
If either Kasich or Bush or both finish under 10% the calls for them to drop out will become very loud and at least one will heed those calls. Unfortunately, I think they both will cross the 10% line allowing them to continue.
Prediction:
Trump 29
Rubio 25
Cruz 20
Kasich 10
Prediction:
Clinton 50
Sanders 49
Actual:
Clinton 53
Sanders 47
Iowa and New Hampshire might well be the high water mark for Sanders. There is no indication of a surge for Sanders in South Carolina. In the national polling data, two of five recent polls have Sanders either close or leading while three of five have Clinton with a modest but solid lead. Thus, he would probably need a surprise upset in Nevada to have a chance at changing the narrative. The other game changer would be a new scandal, more smoke/fire from existing ones or some health issue.
Update: Barring new scandal, more smoke/fire from existing ones or some health issue, it is over. So far, there is no indication Sanders is moving the needle in South Carolina. He will run to the end to try to influence the party but that is all she wrote.
As for the Republicans, they have a primary in South Carolina. According to the polls, Trump will probably hold on for the win for the same reason as in New Hampshire - his opponents dividing up the rest of the voters.
The open questions:
Will the endorsement of Rubio by Gov. Haley carry Rubio to a number two finish edging out Cruz at the lean to the tape?
Will Kasich and/or Bush do well enough to stay in the race?
My guess is that Rubio will finish number two over Cruz fairly easily.
If either Kasich or Bush or both finish under 10% the calls for them to drop out will become very loud and at least one will heed those calls. Unfortunately, I think they both will cross the 10% line allowing them to continue.
Prediction:
Trump 29
Rubio 25
Cruz 20
Kasich 10
Bush 10
Actual:
Trump 32
Rubio 22
Cruz 22
Bush 8
Kasich 8
Carson 7
Update: Bush is out. There is little data on the Nevada caucus but until the race comes down to just two or three candidates, Trump will continue to run the table with wins (~ 30% of the vote) as the rest of the candidates divide the votes. Kasich and Carson claim they will continue but there will be mounting pressure for them to get out so that it is a fight between Trump/Cruz/Rubio. Even then it isn't clear a 3-way race could break Trump's hold.
Actual:
Trump 32
Rubio 22
Cruz 22
Bush 8
Kasich 8
Carson 7
Update: Bush is out. There is little data on the Nevada caucus but until the race comes down to just two or three candidates, Trump will continue to run the table with wins (~ 30% of the vote) as the rest of the candidates divide the votes. Kasich and Carson claim they will continue but there will be mounting pressure for them to get out so that it is a fight between Trump/Cruz/Rubio. Even then it isn't clear a 3-way race could break Trump's hold.
The Contest Over the Supreme Court - raw political power
Charles Krauthammer usually gets to the heart of a particular controversy.
Here is an excerpt from a piece he has written about the struggle over finding a replacement for the late Antonin Scalia.
I suspect many people in the country believe that the Presidency is the most powerful branch of government. Because of this belief, they think that President Obama should get what he wants. Thus, they feel that for the Senate to either reject by vote or reject by not holding hearings on a nominee is "unfair" and "un-Constitutional."
However, Constitutionally, the branches of government have a balance of power relationship. It is equally "Constitutional" for the President to veto an act of Congress as it is for the Congress, if it is able to, to over-ride a veto. The President can propose a budget but the Congress can modify it or propose their own. That is how the system was designed.
Thus, in regards to the Supreme Court, the third branch of government, though the President selects a nominee to the Supreme Court, the Senate may approve or disapprove. And likewise, the Supreme Court can rule that an executive action of the President or a law passed by Congress is unconstitutional. This is the balance of power built into the Constitution.
I go back to the premise: I suspect many people in the country believe that the Presidency is the most powerful branch of government.
Thus, when the Supreme Court has overturned an action of this President, or has take up cases where it is possible to overturn an action of this President, his supporters are outraged. They castigate the Supreme Court members who would dare challenge his actions. And, of course, now when the Senate is planning on using it's "advise and consent" power, the critics decry this move. These objections reflect a belief that the President's political power trumps the other two branches.
It is about power, raw political power. Yes, people can claim they are doing it for the good of the country and for idealogical reasons. Both sides do it but it is about power, raw political power and we should be honest about it.
UPDATE: Wonder how successful will the #NoHearingsNoVotes campaign will be? The President will use his political power to get what he wants. Will the Senate use their political power to protect what they want?
UPDATE: Heard Chuck Todd on the Hugh Hewitt radio show talking about the SCOTUS vacancy. He thought President Obama had two options: (1) go with a left nominee that will be rejected out of hand and use that fight as a political hammer for November (2) go with a moderate the might get confirmed especially if the Democrats win the White House and/or Senate in November.
Let’s understand something about the fight to fill the Supreme Court seat of Antonin (“Nino”) Scalia. This is about nothing but raw power. Any appeal you hear to high principle is phony - brazenly, embarrassingly so.Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431564/supreme-court-republicans-senate-obama-nomination
I suspect many people in the country believe that the Presidency is the most powerful branch of government. Because of this belief, they think that President Obama should get what he wants. Thus, they feel that for the Senate to either reject by vote or reject by not holding hearings on a nominee is "unfair" and "un-Constitutional."
However, Constitutionally, the branches of government have a balance of power relationship. It is equally "Constitutional" for the President to veto an act of Congress as it is for the Congress, if it is able to, to over-ride a veto. The President can propose a budget but the Congress can modify it or propose their own. That is how the system was designed.
Thus, in regards to the Supreme Court, the third branch of government, though the President selects a nominee to the Supreme Court, the Senate may approve or disapprove. And likewise, the Supreme Court can rule that an executive action of the President or a law passed by Congress is unconstitutional. This is the balance of power built into the Constitution.
I go back to the premise: I suspect many people in the country believe that the Presidency is the most powerful branch of government.
Thus, when the Supreme Court has overturned an action of this President, or has take up cases where it is possible to overturn an action of this President, his supporters are outraged. They castigate the Supreme Court members who would dare challenge his actions. And, of course, now when the Senate is planning on using it's "advise and consent" power, the critics decry this move. These objections reflect a belief that the President's political power trumps the other two branches.
It is about power, raw political power. Yes, people can claim they are doing it for the good of the country and for idealogical reasons. Both sides do it but it is about power, raw political power and we should be honest about it.
UPDATE: Wonder how successful will the #NoHearingsNoVotes campaign will be? The President will use his political power to get what he wants. Will the Senate use their political power to protect what they want?
UPDATE: Heard Chuck Todd on the Hugh Hewitt radio show talking about the SCOTUS vacancy. He thought President Obama had two options: (1) go with a left nominee that will be rejected out of hand and use that fight as a political hammer for November (2) go with a moderate the might get confirmed especially if the Democrats win the White House and/or Senate in November.
POTUS 2016 Election Watch
Taking a look at the RCP collection of polls, there haven't been many recent national polling data on the Democratic side. Thus, Quinnipiac that had Sanders down at -2 remains an outlier. But there
simply isn't enough recent polling to be conclusive about that.
Update: The Quinnipiac poll (2/15) is not quite mirrored by the CNN/Suffolk (2/15) that has the race at +10 for Clinton a much smaller lead than all previous polls. The other development is the very close race indicated by the Nevada polling data. This is definitely not what Team Clinton wants to see. The Democrats have their South Carolina primary a week later than the Republicans. Clinton still holds a solid but shrinking lead there. A Sanders win or another "draw" in Nevada could fuel a stampede in South Carolina?
Meanwhile, on the GOP South Carolina side, it is looking like a 3-legged race (in the national polling figures in addition to the South Carolina numbers) between Trump/Cruz/Rubio. Kasich and Bush haven't consistently polled in double digits in South Carolina or nationally. The pressure for one or both to drop out will grow if they finish fourth and fifth this Saturday in South Carolina. A fifth place showing while not fatal in New Hampshire (Christie was 6th and dropped out), would be in South Carolina. And truth be told, a fourth place showing with a large gap between 3rd and 4th would be difficult to overcome going forward.
Kasich and Bush would like to be able to hang on until their home states of Ohio and Florida on March 15. However, their current numbers aren't looking good. They need to break into the top 3 soon to stay viable. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz knows he is going to pick up delegates in the March 1 Texas primary and likely will do well in many other southern states in the so-called SEC primary on that same date of March 1. Thus, a close second in South Carolina and Nevada would be fine for him. Rubio wants to get back into the top 3 again as he finished 3rd in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire. The numbers are looking good for him to finish a solid 3rd in South Carolina. His scenario would be to gather the support of Kasich/Bush/Other as they drop out thus vaulting him over Trump and Cruz.
Update: Big news out of South Carolina is that Gov. Haley has endorsed Rubio. Now, the voters who are looking to vote for Kasich and Bush have to decide if they will stick with that decision as support in the "establishment" lane appears to be shifting toward Rubio.
simply isn't enough recent polling to be conclusive about that.
Update: The Quinnipiac poll (2/15) is not quite mirrored by the CNN/Suffolk (2/15) that has the race at +10 for Clinton a much smaller lead than all previous polls. The other development is the very close race indicated by the Nevada polling data. This is definitely not what Team Clinton wants to see. The Democrats have their South Carolina primary a week later than the Republicans. Clinton still holds a solid but shrinking lead there. A Sanders win or another "draw" in Nevada could fuel a stampede in South Carolina?
Meanwhile, on the GOP South Carolina side, it is looking like a 3-legged race (in the national polling figures in addition to the South Carolina numbers) between Trump/Cruz/Rubio. Kasich and Bush haven't consistently polled in double digits in South Carolina or nationally. The pressure for one or both to drop out will grow if they finish fourth and fifth this Saturday in South Carolina. A fifth place showing while not fatal in New Hampshire (Christie was 6th and dropped out), would be in South Carolina. And truth be told, a fourth place showing with a large gap between 3rd and 4th would be difficult to overcome going forward.
Kasich and Bush would like to be able to hang on until their home states of Ohio and Florida on March 15. However, their current numbers aren't looking good. They need to break into the top 3 soon to stay viable. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz knows he is going to pick up delegates in the March 1 Texas primary and likely will do well in many other southern states in the so-called SEC primary on that same date of March 1. Thus, a close second in South Carolina and Nevada would be fine for him. Rubio wants to get back into the top 3 again as he finished 3rd in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire. The numbers are looking good for him to finish a solid 3rd in South Carolina. His scenario would be to gather the support of Kasich/Bush/Other as they drop out thus vaulting him over Trump and Cruz.
Update: Big news out of South Carolina is that Gov. Haley has endorsed Rubio. Now, the voters who are looking to vote for Kasich and Bush have to decide if they will stick with that decision as support in the "establishment" lane appears to be shifting toward Rubio.
Liverpool Klopp Episode 31 - Toy Story
LFC's next two matches are the two-legs of Europa League knock-out round of 32. Since the winner of the Europa Cup gets an invite to the Champions League, Klopp has said he will field a strong side probably similar to the one last Sunday at Aston Villa.
The injury list is still long leaving Liverpool short on center-back options. Hopefully, the aging wily veteran Toure can continue to sip from whatever magical waters he has been drinking from lately and Sakho will stay focused for a full 90 minutes, they should be okay. On the offensive side of the field, the question mark is the durability of the the newly returned Coutinho and Sturridge. Am anticipating they will be subbed off at some point regardless of the score unless the medical staff is very confident they can go longer. Thus, Origi and Benteke and others need to be ready to come in and make a difference.
In any case, let's hope the team can put together an end-to-end performance against Augsburg on a cold winter's night on Thursday. The group can't get cocky or complacent after the drubbing they administered to Aston Villa. Augsburg is struggling in the Bundesliga and would love to jump start their team by knocking off Coach Klopp, one of the leagues "star coaches." They will be highly motivated and should have vocal home field support.
USA TV coverage on Fox Sport 2 (12:05 PST). Don't know if TalkSport has internet radio. My latest look there suggests not. LiverpoolFC.com should have an internet audio feed for registered (free) users.
Now that LFC has more of the pieces in place to be competitive, they can make some noise! Go Liverpool!!
UPDATE:
Here the Liverpool Echo writers engage in the guessing game of the starting line-up. They are mostly in agreement that LFC will put on the field the same team that thrashed Aston Villa.
UPDATE:
Wasn't near a TV nor a computer. Anyway, the final score was 0-0. Both sides sounded like they had a few chances but didn't cash them in. LFC won the possession battle, had more shots and shots on goal, and corner kicks. That hasn't been usual for them. However, as usual, they didn't find the back of the net. Next match is next week against Augsburg but at Anfield. This is followed 3-days later by the League Cup final against Manchester City at Wembley.
The injury list is still long leaving Liverpool short on center-back options. Hopefully, the aging wily veteran Toure can continue to sip from whatever magical waters he has been drinking from lately and Sakho will stay focused for a full 90 minutes, they should be okay. On the offensive side of the field, the question mark is the durability of the the newly returned Coutinho and Sturridge. Am anticipating they will be subbed off at some point regardless of the score unless the medical staff is very confident they can go longer. Thus, Origi and Benteke and others need to be ready to come in and make a difference.
In any case, let's hope the team can put together an end-to-end performance against Augsburg on a cold winter's night on Thursday. The group can't get cocky or complacent after the drubbing they administered to Aston Villa. Augsburg is struggling in the Bundesliga and would love to jump start their team by knocking off Coach Klopp, one of the leagues "star coaches." They will be highly motivated and should have vocal home field support.
USA TV coverage on Fox Sport 2 (12:05 PST). Don't know if TalkSport has internet radio. My latest look there suggests not. LiverpoolFC.com should have an internet audio feed for registered (free) users.
Now that LFC has more of the pieces in place to be competitive, they can make some noise! Go Liverpool!!
UPDATE:
Here the Liverpool Echo writers engage in the guessing game of the starting line-up. They are mostly in agreement that LFC will put on the field the same team that thrashed Aston Villa.
UPDATE:
Wasn't near a TV nor a computer. Anyway, the final score was 0-0. Both sides sounded like they had a few chances but didn't cash them in. LFC won the possession battle, had more shots and shots on goal, and corner kicks. That hasn't been usual for them. However, as usual, they didn't find the back of the net. Next match is next week against Augsburg but at Anfield. This is followed 3-days later by the League Cup final against Manchester City at Wembley.
RIP Steven Stucky, Nov 7, 1949 - Feb 14, 2016
Was reading the LA Times over breakfast and saw the news of the passing of composer Steven Stucky.
As a subscriber to the LA Phil since 1999, I was aware he had a professional relationship with the orchestra but didn't really know much about the details. Swed, in his piece remembering Stucky's impact on the LA Phil, provided the story.
Some extended excerpts from Swed:
Extended excerpts:
As a subscriber to the LA Phil since 1999, I was aware he had a professional relationship with the orchestra but didn't really know much about the details. Swed, in his piece remembering Stucky's impact on the LA Phil, provided the story.
Some extended excerpts from Swed:
I first met Steven Stucky at Yaddo, the arts colony in upstate New York, in the summer of 1988. He was a 38-year-old composer just beginning to emerge on the national scene. He had been named composer-in-residence of the Los Angeles Philharmonic, and I had come to interview him for his first major newspaper profile. A native of Kansas who had grown up in Abilene, Texas, and taught at Cornell University, he agreeably combined an academic's inner dry wit with a courteous aw-shucks veneer. [......] Who knew that this affably backward-looking, backwater nerdish composer appearing unworldly even in the Victorian setting of Yaddo would play an indispensable role in making the L.A. Phil the hippest and most progressive major orchestra in America? I didn't. He certainly didn't. Previn couldn't possibly.NPR also had an article about Stucky.
In fact, Stucky, who tragically died Sunday, turned out to be an essential ingredient in the secret sauce of the Southland's new music ascendancy nationally and internationally. Death from an aggressive brain tumor seems hard to imagine, not for a brilliant brain like his that luxuriously processed information and allowed him to take delight in details the rest of us easily overlooked [......] Stucky's formal involvement with the L.A. orchestra continued for 21 years, and he remained a member of the L.A. Phil family after that. Clashing with the administration over the direction of the orchestra, Previn resigned in 1989, and the appointment of Esa-Pekka Salonen made it seemingly out of the question for Stucky to remain. The orchestra wanted a new, non-Previn image. And no one seemed less likely a colleague for a young Finnish modernist than a Cornell-based Kansan known for aping Viennese waltzes. [.....] Stucky did live in our time. He admired Witold Lutoslawski above all of his contemporaries and wrote an important book about the Modernist Polish composer. Proving conventional wisdom once more wrong, Stucky bonded with Salonen, who also looked up to Lutoslawski. The two young Luto-ites became and remained close friends. As a composer himself, Salonen obviously didn't need a composer-in-residence, but he did need someone to guide him through the American and the L.A. scenes, and Stucky was his man.
Extended excerpts:
The classical music community has marked two sad passings of major composers this month: first the death of 93-year-old Pulitzer Prize winner Leslie Bassett on Feb. 4, and now the untimely death of another Pulitzer winner, Steven Stucky, one of the most widely admired and collegial figures in modern music.Back in 2004, I had the opportunity to hear Second Concerto for Orchestra. (that later won a Pulitzer Prize). At the time I wrote the following:
The composer's wife, Kristen Stucky, said in a statement that he had been diagnosed with a fast-moving brain cancer in November, and that he died at their home in Ithaca, N.Y. on Feb. 14.
Whether he was writing for orchestra, vocal ensembles, solo musicians or chamber groups, Stucky balanced his taut constructions with a richly pigmented palette.
In 2005, Stucky won the Pulitzer Prize for his Second Concerto for Orchestra, and was also the winner of Guggenheim and National Endowment for the Arts fellowships, among many other honors. Along with his work as a composer and academic, he was also a well-regarded conductor and author who won the ASCAP/Deems Taylor Award for distinguished music writing for his 1981 book Lutosławski and His Music.
What I enjoyed most about the work was most notable in the second movement: how the music utilizes the full variety of the instruments in the orchestra. It seemed like every section of the orchestra at one point or another got to lead with the melody and everyone else harmonizes or responds to that section. Because of the close proximity of my seats to the orchestra there were many moments where I felt the sounds coming at me from different directions and you get the sense of the instruments dialoging with each other. New music is very hit and miss to me. I've been a subscriber since 1999 and some of the new compositions are quite forgettable and the audience is sometimes left granting polite applause with looks ranging from apathy to puzzlement to a vague sense of alarm. As for me, upon it conclusion, I thought to myself, I would like to hear it again and explore it some more. I also found myself wondering if it would be as enjoyable at a less acoustically clear and bright hall? The work highlights the dynamic range of sound an orchestra can make and Disney Hall is lively enough to make that fuller appreciation possible. Interesting, in the post-performance question and answer session, Stucky remarked, I'd hate to think how that would have sounded in the old Dorothy Chandler! And all the music fans said, "Amen." Okay, we didn't actually say it but I imagine most of us thought it!As I read the news of his passing, I felt the spark of remembering that particular concert and that I wrote about the experience of hearing it nearly 12 years ago. As I read more about his life story, his contributions to the LA Phil and the American music scene, it is clear he will be missed and remembered fondly.
Liverpool Klopp Episode 30: Don't Let Me Down
Things have been a bit crazy the past few days. But am finally awake this Sunday morning in the PST and am heartened to see LFC leading by 2 over Aston Villa.
Of course, last week, watched them collapse in the final 10 minutes to Sunderland!
Don't let the traveling KOP down!
Oh my, in the last handful of minutes, have seen Liverpool blast in 2 goals!
Ooof for the Villa fans as the Reds have netted their 5th goal!
Wonder how Roger Bennet of Men in Blazers will describe this performance in the next MIB podcast? One of his favorite ways of describing LFC's high possession, lots of shots, but usually zero goals, is that Liverpool came out "like a manic labradoodle going off leash at the park."
image source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labradoodle#/media/File:Labradoodle_Brown.jpg
Wow, LFC just got goal 6 off a corner with the finish by Toure!
Good to see Coutinho back in there. We saw what a difference he makes in the mid-week FA Cup match. And today, we can see him causing problems. Then there is seeing Sturridge start! He got the opening goal at the 16' mark. Fantastic to see Origi come in as a sub (62') for Sturridge and immediately make an impact with a goal at 63'.
Certainly, when the season started, the FSG brain trust and then coach Brendan Rodgers had hoped the team that was fielded today would have been in operation soon after the start of the EPL fixture list. A great "what if." But things have unfolded in the way they have and finally 25/38th into the season, LFC has got many of the pieces onto the board they planned on having. Probably too late to make run at the top 4 but they could have some victories ahead? Let's not go crazy as this was Aston Villa.
It is a final: 6-0! NBCSN announcer ends the game by calling it the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre.
Can LFC make a run up the EPL list to finish perhaps a respectable sixth or seventh?
How about some silverware in the League Cup?
Maybe a push to the final four in the Europa Cup?
Go Liverpool!
Liverpool Klopp Episode 29: Independence Day
After that collapse against Sunderland on Saturday, Liverpool needs to have a gut check performance and deliver a knock-out blow to West Ham's FA Cup aspirations.
LFC fans would love to see Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi back in. However, since they are recovering from injury, it is unlikely all three would get in and Klopp has indicated he will stick with the younger lineup he has used thus far in the FA Cup. Allen, Brannigan, and Lovren do not appear likely to be ready for the match on Tuesday.
So here we go with some guesses: Mignolet, Clyne, Sakho, Caulker, Flanagan, Lucas, Stewart, Ojo, Benteke, Sturridge, Teixeira.
Here is the XI:
Confirmed #LFC team to face @whufc_official: Mignolet, Flanagan, Lucas, Ilori, Smith, Stewart, Chirivella, Teixeira, Coutinho, Ibe, Benteke.— Liverpool FC (@LFC) February 9, 2016
Here are the subs:
Confirmed #LFC substitutes against @whufc_official: Ward, Enrique, Milner, Henderson, Sturridge, Origi, Randall.— Liverpool FC (@LFC) February 9, 2016
TV coverage in the USA at FS1. Internet radio at LiverpoolFC.
1-1 as time runs down on regular time. West Ham got at the opening goal just before half-time at 45. Coutinho equalized at 48. Sturridge and Origi in at 59 to substitute for Coutinho and Teixeira. A quick scan of the UK Guardian minute-by-minute suggest the match has been evenly fought. The stats say West Ham has had more shots but Liverpool has had more possession.
90' Corner for West Ham. Whew. LFC fends it off. 8' of stoppage time. Both sides getting some threats in this long stoppage time. But West Ham seems to be getting the better of it. LFC hang on to survive to extra time.
120 + 1' Heartbreak hotel. On a free kick West Ham takes a 2-1 lead. LFC had so many chances.
It's a final West Ham advances in the FA Cup.
New Hampshire Primary Predictions
On the Democratic side, Sanders wins this one. The open question is how big a victory. How about this for a guess:
Sanders 56
Clinton 44
Actual
Sanders 60 Clinton 38
This will be Sanders' high-water mark as Iowa and New Hampshire are the most fertile grounds for Sanders. Mostly likely, going forward Clinton will start racking up clear cut wins.
What could happen to shift the race?
(1) Those "d@m# emails." Even though Sanders won't talk about them, reporters do and probably enough voters do to keep the issue alive. Thus, if the FBI were to declare there was wrongdoing, or some other "shoe drops," it will further erode confidence in Clinton's denials.
(2) Perhaps, those high-priced Clinton "Wall Street" speeches may get leaked in some fashion (remember the Romney 47% remark?) thus further emboldening the Sanders side.
(3) If Sanders' victory gets close to the 20% mark (I forecast only a 12% win), then the rebellion in the party is far stronger than anyone has expected. Nevada and South Carolina will be the next tests before the mega-primaries of March. If the rebellion is real, a 20% win in NH demonstrates it, then it will continue to show up in stronger than expected showings in states that are not natural Sanders territory.
UPDATE: Indeed, there is now panic in Team Clinton and the Democratic establishment as Sanders had a 22% victory. The rebellion appears to be for real. The next key data point for the rebel forces of Sanders is whether somebody replicates the Quinnipiac poll (2/2-2/4) that shows close national numbers.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, it remains a total mess. The post-Iowa controveries and pre-New Hampshire debate muddied the waters taking the bounce out of the Cruz win and the stronger than expected finish by Rubio.
My impressions:
Cruz numbers will slip in New Hampshire as the Iowa Carson controversy will put a dent in his support on top of the fact that NH wasn't friendly territory for Cruz anyway. If he were to slip to 5th, his team should be worried.
UPDATE: The TedHeads are happy with a third place finish.
Trump will probably hang on to win but he will continue to under-perform his polling numbers. If he were to lose, S.S. Trump is taking on water and that would be huge!
UPDATE: The Trump-petters are happy with their "yuuge" victory.
Rubio will take a hit from Saturday's debate but probably not as big as the "Beltway Media" thinks. He could have distanced himself from the others but as it stands I think he barely hangs onto the number two spot in NH. It would not be surprising if he slips to third. If he were to slip to 5th, his team should be worried.
UPDATE: Team Rubio is worried as the debate gaffe dragged them from a likely 2nd place finish down to 5th place. Shaking the too young, too inexperienced, not-ready-for-prime time image may prove difficult. I clearly underestimated the impact of that sequence of unfortunate events on the debate stage. Gov. Perry never recovered from his stumble in 2012. Dan Quayle was never taken seriously again after 1988 despite serving four years as vice-president. Will see if Rubio can make a joke out of it at the next debate and hit it out of the park to resuscitate his now on-life support campaign.
Kasich would like to win the "governor's sub-primary" against Bush and Christie. If he gets less than 10%, I don't see how he can stay in the race. Ohio isn't until March 15 so he has to show some stronger support somewhere before Ohio and New Hampshire is his best venue for that. I think he accomplishes this. If he were to slip to 5th, his team should be worried.
UPDATE: For the best collection of pundits giving their viewpoints, I check out the Hugh Hewitt radio show. Seems like many of the experts interviewed on the show believe Kasich is going to sneak into a second place finish. Certainly, in the professional political watching class, the Rubio stumbles on Saturday weigh heavily. I am skeptical that this view is as strongly held by the average voter even voters as tuned in a New Hampshire voters. We shall see tonight!
UPDATE: The Kasich campaign has to be happy with the clear cut silver medal finish. The problem is now scaling up for the multi-state races in March and going into regions of the USA where his more centrist views will not play as well.
Bush would like to win the "governor's sub-primary" against Kasich and Christie. If he gets less than 10%, I don't see how he can stay in the race. Florida isn't until March 15 so he has to show some stronger support somewhere before Florida. However, I think he gets enough to keep going even if he finishes 5th as long as it is more than 10% in a tightly clustered two-fifth place candidate totals. A distant 5th is a different story and would be trouble.
UPDATE: A third place finish would have been better but a fourth place finish is okay.
Christie knocked Rubio down a peg or two but it probably won't revive his campaign enough. If he gets less than 10%, I don't see how he can stay in the race. New Jersey isn't until June and NJ neighboring states aren't until April. I think it is too little too late.
UPDATE: Stick a fork in 'em, he is done.
Trump 27%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 15%
Cruz 14%
Bush 13%
Actual
Trump 35%
Kasich 16%
Cruz 12%
Bush 11%
Rubio 11%
Each caucus/primary is the political equivalent of the Survivor Tribal Council where somebody gets voted off the campaign trail. Iowa ended previous Iowa winners the efforts of Santorum and Huckabee, and the Paul campaign as well. New Hampshire is likely to end Christie's bid. There will be calls for Fiorina and Carson to step out of the race. The problem is that the Kasich/Bush/Rubio three-headed monster clears a path for Trump.
Sanders 56
Clinton 44
Actual
Sanders 60 Clinton 38
This will be Sanders' high-water mark as Iowa and New Hampshire are the most fertile grounds for Sanders. Mostly likely, going forward Clinton will start racking up clear cut wins.
What could happen to shift the race?
(1) Those "d@m# emails." Even though Sanders won't talk about them, reporters do and probably enough voters do to keep the issue alive. Thus, if the FBI were to declare there was wrongdoing, or some other "shoe drops," it will further erode confidence in Clinton's denials.
(2) Perhaps, those high-priced Clinton "Wall Street" speeches may get leaked in some fashion (remember the Romney 47% remark?) thus further emboldening the Sanders side.
(3) If Sanders' victory gets close to the 20% mark (I forecast only a 12% win), then the rebellion in the party is far stronger than anyone has expected. Nevada and South Carolina will be the next tests before the mega-primaries of March. If the rebellion is real, a 20% win in NH demonstrates it, then it will continue to show up in stronger than expected showings in states that are not natural Sanders territory.
UPDATE: Indeed, there is now panic in Team Clinton and the Democratic establishment as Sanders had a 22% victory. The rebellion appears to be for real. The next key data point for the rebel forces of Sanders is whether somebody replicates the Quinnipiac poll (2/2-2/4) that shows close national numbers.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, it remains a total mess. The post-Iowa controveries and pre-New Hampshire debate muddied the waters taking the bounce out of the Cruz win and the stronger than expected finish by Rubio.
My impressions:
Cruz numbers will slip in New Hampshire as the Iowa Carson controversy will put a dent in his support on top of the fact that NH wasn't friendly territory for Cruz anyway. If he were to slip to 5th, his team should be worried.
UPDATE: The TedHeads are happy with a third place finish.
Trump will probably hang on to win but he will continue to under-perform his polling numbers. If he were to lose, S.S. Trump is taking on water and that would be huge!
UPDATE: The Trump-petters are happy with their "yuuge" victory.
Rubio will take a hit from Saturday's debate but probably not as big as the "Beltway Media" thinks. He could have distanced himself from the others but as it stands I think he barely hangs onto the number two spot in NH. It would not be surprising if he slips to third. If he were to slip to 5th, his team should be worried.
UPDATE: Team Rubio is worried as the debate gaffe dragged them from a likely 2nd place finish down to 5th place. Shaking the too young, too inexperienced, not-ready-for-prime time image may prove difficult. I clearly underestimated the impact of that sequence of unfortunate events on the debate stage. Gov. Perry never recovered from his stumble in 2012. Dan Quayle was never taken seriously again after 1988 despite serving four years as vice-president. Will see if Rubio can make a joke out of it at the next debate and hit it out of the park to resuscitate his now on-life support campaign.
Kasich would like to win the "governor's sub-primary" against Bush and Christie. If he gets less than 10%, I don't see how he can stay in the race. Ohio isn't until March 15 so he has to show some stronger support somewhere before Ohio and New Hampshire is his best venue for that. I think he accomplishes this. If he were to slip to 5th, his team should be worried.
UPDATE: For the best collection of pundits giving their viewpoints, I check out the Hugh Hewitt radio show. Seems like many of the experts interviewed on the show believe Kasich is going to sneak into a second place finish. Certainly, in the professional political watching class, the Rubio stumbles on Saturday weigh heavily. I am skeptical that this view is as strongly held by the average voter even voters as tuned in a New Hampshire voters. We shall see tonight!
UPDATE: The Kasich campaign has to be happy with the clear cut silver medal finish. The problem is now scaling up for the multi-state races in March and going into regions of the USA where his more centrist views will not play as well.
Bush would like to win the "governor's sub-primary" against Kasich and Christie. If he gets less than 10%, I don't see how he can stay in the race. Florida isn't until March 15 so he has to show some stronger support somewhere before Florida. However, I think he gets enough to keep going even if he finishes 5th as long as it is more than 10% in a tightly clustered two-fifth place candidate totals. A distant 5th is a different story and would be trouble.
UPDATE: A third place finish would have been better but a fourth place finish is okay.
Christie knocked Rubio down a peg or two but it probably won't revive his campaign enough. If he gets less than 10%, I don't see how he can stay in the race. New Jersey isn't until June and NJ neighboring states aren't until April. I think it is too little too late.
UPDATE: Stick a fork in 'em, he is done.
Trump 27%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 15%
Cruz 14%
Bush 13%
Actual
Trump 35%
Kasich 16%
Cruz 12%
Bush 11%
Rubio 11%
Each caucus/primary is the political equivalent of the Survivor Tribal Council where somebody gets voted off the campaign trail. Iowa ended previous Iowa winners the efforts of Santorum and Huckabee, and the Paul campaign as well. New Hampshire is likely to end Christie's bid. There will be calls for Fiorina and Carson to step out of the race. The problem is that the Kasich/Bush/Rubio three-headed monster clears a path for Trump.
Liverpool Klopp Episode 28: We Can Work It Out
"Life is very short and there's no time for fussing and fighting my friend."
Tough times for Liverpudlians.
Fan favorite Jon Flanagan is out again with more knee surgery.....
UPDATE: OPPS! My bad, as that link is an old one back to 2015 that is still visible on the Echo web page. Flanagan is fine and is on the substitutes bench for today's match!
A supporter group is calling for a fan walkout at the 77 minute mark of Saturday's match against Sunderland at Anfield to protest ticket prices.....
Center back Skrtel has an injury setback.....
Rumors of Sturridge wanting to leave the club in the summer.....
UPDATE: He is on the bench today!
January transfer window target Alex Teixeira appears to have chosen the bigger paycheck of the Chinese league over LFC.......
Criticism of the club's performance swirls around the team amidst the congested fixture schedule.....
Sunderland appears to be relegation bound and should be an easy win for Liverpool. But then again, Newcastle appear relegation bound and they thrashed the Reds 2-0. Thus, this game can't be mailed in by Klopp's crew as the club is in disarray.
With the short rest from last Tuesday match against LCFC and the FA Cup replay coming up next Tuesday, Coach Klopp is likely going to have to juggle the line-up.
Starting XI thoughts
I think the 2-0 loss to LCFC can't be placed entirely on the goalkeeper and the defense so I think Mignolet-Clyne-Lovren-Sakho-Moreno will be on the line-up card. Vardy is an exceptional talent and sometimes there isn't much you can do about that.
However, LFC clearly didn't do much on the offensive end despite possession and shots. Thus, I think there will be some changes there. Henderson has gamely fought through pain and his being the first substitution in the last two games suggest he may need a break so time to put Allen in for him to share defensive midfield duties with Lucas. Firmino looks lost and may need a break. Dare we say it, Benteke to start and lead the line. Running behind him Can, Milner, and Ibe.
UPDATE: Klopp is in the hospital for a possible appendicitis. Wishing him a speedy recovery.
Henderson is still in but Allen is in for Lucas. Firmino remains leading the line with Benteke on the bench. Lallana is in and Ibe is on the substitutes list.
The #LFC starting line-up and substitutes to face @SunderlandAFC in full... pic.twitter.com/RTOIrhcYiB— Liverpool FC (@LFC) February 6, 2016
UPDATE: Ugh. Lovren out at 13' with injury. Toure is now in.
Nice goal last night by Jozy Altidore in the friendly between USA and Canada. Would love to see Liverpool get a goal like this once in a while. But at this point, ANY goal would be welcome from LFC! The Reds haven't scored since January 23 when they got 5 against Norwich.
USA TV coverage on USA. Internet radio on TalkSport and LiverpoolFC.
MCFC 1 LCFC 3! Wow, the Foxes take down Man City at the Man City's home grounds!
UPDATE: Argh! Another injury, Allen is off in first half stoppage time. Ibe is sent in. 0-0 so far as Sunderland is parking the bus. LFC has dominated possession, gotten some shots but as usual have botched good opportunities.
update: Firmino's goal was an Altidore like header off a cross.
UPDATE: It is a final. LFC snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. Cruising with a 2-0 lead, they surrender two goals with the last one at the 82 and 89 minute mark. The EPL scriptwriters twist the knife into the LFC fans who stuck to the end instead of joining the walkout to protest the new price structure.
LA Galaxy Starting XI and Supporting Cast?
Okay, what is the LA Galaxy line-up likely to look like in the 2016 season?
Defense
Starters
Rogers
DeLaGarza
Cole and Van Damme - rumored to be in negotiation with these 2 30+ year old European players
UPDATE: Van Damme has been signed 1/26
Cole has been signed 1/27
Reserves
Leonardo
Gargan
Romney
Midfield/Forwards
Starters
Dos Santos
Gerrard
Lletget
De Jong - rumored to be in negotiation with this 30+ year old European player
UPDATE: De Jong officially signed 2/3
Reserves
Larentowicz - LAG Confidential have doubts about the wisdom of this signing. I wonder if he might get some back four time in addition to being slotted in as a defensive midfielder?
Husidic
Garcia
Forwards/Midfield
Starters
Keane
Zardes
Reserves
Gordon
Magee - experienced player for squad rotation
Villareal
Boateng - Since AEG has eyes and ears in Sweden they picked up this younger player for further development
Goalie
Starter
Kennedy
Reserve
Rowe
My feeling is that at most they will sign two of the three (Cole, Van Damme, and De Jong) and maybe only one. For a deeper dive into how all these selections could impact the line-up see LAG Confidential for their thorough analysis and thoughts.
UPDATE: What do LA Galaxy fans think? The starting line-up could contain FIVE over-30 European players (Cole, Van Damme, Gerrard, De Jong, and Keane). Perhaps, they are going "all-in" to try to win an MLS Cup on the final (?) year of Gerrard and Keane with LA?
UPDATE: I wondered how the LA Galaxy could fit 3 euro-stars into their line-up! The 3DP spots are filled (Keane, Dos Santos, Gerrard). Thus, how will they fit these 3 under the salary cap? Well, some creative salary structuring according to Baxter at the LAT.
Defense
Starters
Rogers
DeLaGarza
Cole and Van Damme - rumored to be in negotiation with these 2 30+ year old European players
UPDATE: Van Damme has been signed 1/26
Cole has been signed 1/27
Reserves
Leonardo
Gargan
Romney
Midfield/Forwards
Starters
Dos Santos
Gerrard
Lletget
De Jong - rumored to be in negotiation with this 30+ year old European player
UPDATE: De Jong officially signed 2/3
Reserves
Larentowicz - LAG Confidential have doubts about the wisdom of this signing. I wonder if he might get some back four time in addition to being slotted in as a defensive midfielder?
Husidic
Garcia
Forwards/Midfield
Starters
Keane
Zardes
Reserves
Gordon
Magee - experienced player for squad rotation
Villareal
Boateng - Since AEG has eyes and ears in Sweden they picked up this younger player for further development
Goalie
Starter
Kennedy
Reserve
Rowe
UPDATE: What do LA Galaxy fans think? The starting line-up could contain FIVE over-30 European players (Cole, Van Damme, Gerrard, De Jong, and Keane). Perhaps, they are going "all-in" to try to win an MLS Cup on the final (?) year of Gerrard and Keane with LA?
UPDATE: I wondered how the LA Galaxy could fit 3 euro-stars into their line-up! The 3DP spots are filled (Keane, Dos Santos, Gerrard). Thus, how will they fit these 3 under the salary cap? Well, some creative salary structuring according to Baxter at the LAT.
Liverpool Klopp Episode 27: Thunderball
The crowded fixture schedule takes Liverpool to King Power Stadium to take on League leading Leicester City. Should be quite the match up! Seems like forever that they last met, but it was only just a month ago on Boxing Day that LFC stunned the Foxes with a 1-0 win. In that match, Origi got injured and has been out ever since. Benteke was subbed in and he got the game winner in the second half.
Klopp seems to have a fairly fixed "A" team. Thus, we should be seeing those players against Leicester. The open questions:
Does Lovren, who played a full 90 against West Ham, start alongside Sakho in place of Toure?
Has Smith earned a shot at displacing Moreno?
Is Henderson ready to go after having to be taken out early against Stoke?
I think Lovren is in if there is no issues with his recovery on Sunday/Monday.
Moreno stays in the starting XI.
Henderson is in if there is no issues with his recovery from the Stoke match though Allen would be an easy choice to plug in if he needs a little more rest.
What do you think?
UPDATE: According to UK Guardian, good news for LFC fans as Henderson appears ready to go for the battle against the Foxes. Also, some of the injury list players (Daniel Sturridge, Divock Origi, Philippe Coutinho and Martin Skrtel) are returning to training and will soon be available for selection. A draw or upset win on Tuesday against LCFC combined with potentially four of the senior team back in the next week or two, LFC could make a push for a top-4 finish. And certainly, having more players to select from will help in the busy fixtures in the EPL, League Cup, FA Cup, and Europa Cup. Rodgers was not able to win any silverware during his tenure. Perhaps, LFC under Klopp might break the drought somewhere somehow!
LCFC does not have European competition to clog their schedule. They have been eliminated in the League Cup. They are still alive in the FA Cup. Thus, they are likely to have the fresher team. Meanwhile, LFC has been playing so many matches with an injury thinned roster. Will see how LFC do tonight. There have been some matches where LFC came out flat and got clobbered. It is entirely possible that LCFC will run them off the field with their counter-attacks. But Klopp's side has had its share of stunning victories when people have least expected it. One of the biggest was defeating the Foxes 1-0 in December.
Go Liverpool!
USA TV coverage at NBCSN. Internet radio through LiverpoolFC.com and TalkSport.
LFC XI and substitutes announced (it is the anticipated line-up):
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) February 2, 2016
ESPN Ben Jacobs says LCFC 2 LFC 0 while Steven Kelly says LCFC 2 LFC 3.
In my blog, I have taken to the custom of only predicting the XI and not the results. The EPL scriptwriters have been all over the place with Liverpool. Who would have guessed they would overwhelm Man City on the road (1-4) and squeak past LCFC 1-0? And likewise, they have been shutout by West Ham twice (0-3, 2-0) and mauled by Newcastle (2-0) and Watford (3-0).
LCFC 2 LFC 0. Too much Vardy. LFC had possession, had shots, but they don't have a game changing player like Vardy. Well deserved win for the Foxes. Klopp and company need to win the upcoming EPL matches against the bottom table teams to keep their faint hopes for European soccer and extraordinary faint hopes for at top-4 finish alive. In any case, more disappointments and the fan base will go crazy and will need to be talked off the ledge as it was during the Rodger's tenure.
As for the rest of February, a mixed slew of FA Cup replay, League Cup final, and Europa league away/home matches.
Here is the Echo's player ratings.
Here is the ESPNFC player ratings.
Will there be some line-up changes for the match against Sunderland?
Iowa Forecast
Finally. Actual. Voting.
Anyway, time to take a guess at the outcome!
Sanders 47 Clinton 46.
ACTUAL: Clinton 50 Sanders 50
Trump 26 Cruz 25 Rubio 20.
ACTUAL: Cruz 28 Trump 24 Rubio 23
Will the Sanders people turn out?
It could be an Obama-style upset as in 2008. Or it could be a Dean-like fade out as in 2004. I'm thinking Sanders pulls it off and it is those "d@m& emails" that causes a small number of Clinton supporters to either go to Sanders or O'Malley.
ACTUAL: Far closer than the Clinton people wanted to see.
Will the Trump people turn out?
I don't think so. But Cruz clearly stalled out and will fall short of catching Trump. Rubio gains ground at both their expense but not enough to overtake them.
ACTUAL: Turnout in the GOP Caucus was up across the board with nearly 187,000 voters a huge increase over 2012
The mystery is who finishes fourth?
Will Carson loyalists hang on to get him fourth place? Will Ron Paul's supporters back Rand Paul to get him to fourth place? Will the Bush name be enough to get a fourth place? My guess that the finish is Carson/Paul/Bush but all very close together around 5%.
ACTUAL: Carson 9% Paul 5% Bush 3% everyone else got 2% or less.
Now it is onto New Hampshire!
Anyway, time to take a guess at the outcome!
Sanders 47 Clinton 46.
ACTUAL: Clinton 50 Sanders 50
Trump 26 Cruz 25 Rubio 20.
ACTUAL: Cruz 28 Trump 24 Rubio 23
Will the Sanders people turn out?
It could be an Obama-style upset as in 2008. Or it could be a Dean-like fade out as in 2004. I'm thinking Sanders pulls it off and it is those "d@m& emails" that causes a small number of Clinton supporters to either go to Sanders or O'Malley.
ACTUAL: Far closer than the Clinton people wanted to see.
Will the Trump people turn out?
I don't think so. But Cruz clearly stalled out and will fall short of catching Trump. Rubio gains ground at both their expense but not enough to overtake them.
ACTUAL: Turnout in the GOP Caucus was up across the board with nearly 187,000 voters a huge increase over 2012
The mystery is who finishes fourth?
Will Carson loyalists hang on to get him fourth place? Will Ron Paul's supporters back Rand Paul to get him to fourth place? Will the Bush name be enough to get a fourth place? My guess that the finish is Carson/Paul/Bush but all very close together around 5%.
ACTUAL: Carson 9% Paul 5% Bush 3% everyone else got 2% or less.
Now it is onto New Hampshire!
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