POTUS 2016 Election Watch

Taking a look at the RCP collection of polls, there haven't been many recent national polling data on the Democratic side. Thus, Quinnipiac that had Sanders down at -2 remains an outlier. But there
simply isn't enough recent polling to be conclusive about that.

Update: The Quinnipiac poll (2/15) is not quite mirrored by the CNN/Suffolk (2/15) that has the race at +10 for Clinton a much smaller lead than all previous polls. The other development is the very close race indicated by the Nevada polling data. This is definitely not what Team Clinton wants to see. The Democrats have their South Carolina primary a week later than the Republicans. Clinton still holds a solid but shrinking lead there. A Sanders win or another "draw" in Nevada could fuel a stampede in South Carolina?

Meanwhile, on the GOP South Carolina side, it is looking like a 3-legged race (in the national polling figures in addition to the South Carolina numbers) between Trump/Cruz/Rubio. Kasich and Bush haven't consistently polled in double digits in South Carolina or nationally. The pressure for one or both to drop out will grow if they finish fourth and fifth this Saturday in South Carolina. A fifth place showing while not fatal in New Hampshire (Christie was 6th and dropped out), would be in South Carolina. And truth be told, a fourth place showing with a large gap between 3rd and 4th would be difficult to overcome going forward.

Kasich and Bush would like to be able to hang on until their home states of Ohio and Florida on March 15. However, their current numbers aren't looking good. They need to break into the top 3 soon to stay viable. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz knows he is going to pick up delegates in the March 1 Texas primary and likely will do well in many other southern states in the so-called SEC primary on that same date of March 1. Thus, a close second in South Carolina and Nevada would be fine for him. Rubio wants to get back into the top 3 again as he finished 3rd in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire. The numbers are looking good for him to finish a solid 3rd in South Carolina. His scenario would be to gather the support of Kasich/Bush/Other as they drop out thus vaulting him over Trump and Cruz.

Update: Big news out of South Carolina is that Gov. Haley has endorsed Rubio. Now, the voters who are looking to vote for Kasich and Bush have to decide if they will stick with that decision as support in the "establishment" lane appears to be shifting toward Rubio.


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