Super Tuesday - Will Trump Sweep? Will the GOP House of Cards Burn Down?
Polls indicating likely Trump win
Virginia > 10%, 3 polls
Tennessee > 10%, 1 poll
Vermont > 10%, 1 poll
Georgia > 10%, 7 polls
Massachusetts > 10%, 4 polls
Oklahoma < 10%, 2 polls
Alabama > 10%, 3 polls
Recent data (2/28) indicating likely Cruz win
Texas < 10%, 7 polls
Limited data indicating possible close voting
Arkansas, 1 poll in early February
Poor data (caucus states)
Minnesota, polls outdated
Colorado, no polls in RCP
Alaska, polls outdated
As a blogger in the #NeverTrump category, I am watching to see if Rubio and Cruz can make in roads somewhere, anywhere! Jen Rubin over at WaPo is discussing the formation of a new party as the GOP explodes.
Rubin: As we have discussed, if Trump is the nominee — and we are still not there yet, as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) rises to the occasion — all sorts of interesting possibilities unfold. A third presidential candidate is quite likely, but more important, a new party. Let’s face it: There is a lot deserving of abandonment in the GOP right now. Nativism has thoroughly infected its agenda, turning otherwise well-rounded conservatives into small-minded xenophobes. The inability to recognize lost causes (reversing gay marriage) and the refusal to address real ones (e.g. poverty) have paralyzed too many Republicans. The search for ideological purity and support for fringe candidates as well as a nihilistic approach to government personified in the shutdown have gripped vast swaths of the party. The opportunity now may present itself to leave all of this behind, to form a 21st-century party reflective of today’s United States and with a coherent vision of governance.[......]The answer should come from the reform agenda that House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is championing. As he describes it, his effort involves applying conservative principles to a range of real-world problems, including poverty, declining upward mobility, stagnant wages, low economic, education (both K-12 and higher ed) and loss of American influence and standing in the world. We have discussed at length its intellectual underpinnings in the reform conservative movement. But constitutionalists need not fret. Both Ryan and the larger reform conservative effort rely on restoring the proper balance between federal and state power and between executive and legislative action. However, as former Texas governor Rick Perry elegantly put it during his run, conservatives should be as concerned with the 14th Amendment as they are with the 10th.
McArdle in regards to the #NeverTrump voters she heard from:
The main arguments were his authoritarianism, his lack of any principle besides the further aggrandizement of one Donald J. Trump, his racism and misogyny, and his erratic behavior, which led a whole lot of people to write that they were afraid to have him anywhere within a thousand miles of the nuclear launch codes.[.....]Another writer, who understood why people are angry at the policy establishment and Washington elites more generally, added “I personally am not willing to sacrifice my country and more specifically the dignity of the office that represents it, just to make a point.”[.......]This was what surprised me most about the whole exercise. I’d expected people to say they’d sit out the election; I didn’t expect that around a dozen would say that if Trump was the nominee, they would change their registration.