Iowa Forecast

Finally. Actual. Voting.

Anyway, time to take a guess at the outcome!

Sanders 47 Clinton 46.
ACTUAL: Clinton 50 Sanders 50

Trump 26 Cruz 25 Rubio 20.
ACTUAL: Cruz 28 Trump 24 Rubio 23

Will the Sanders people turn out?

It could be an Obama-style upset as in 2008. Or it could be a Dean-like fade out as in 2004. I'm thinking Sanders pulls it off and it is those "d@m& emails" that causes a small number of Clinton supporters to either go to Sanders or O'Malley.
ACTUAL: Far closer than the Clinton people wanted to see.

Will the Trump people turn out?

I don't think so. But Cruz clearly stalled out and will fall short of catching Trump. Rubio gains ground at both their expense but not enough to overtake them.
ACTUAL: Turnout in the GOP Caucus was up across the board with nearly 187,000 voters a huge increase over 2012

The mystery is who finishes fourth?

Will Carson loyalists hang on to get him fourth place? Will Ron Paul's supporters back Rand Paul to get him to fourth place? Will the Bush name be enough to get a fourth place? My guess that the finish is Carson/Paul/Bush but all very close together around 5%.
ACTUAL: Carson 9% Paul 5% Bush 3% everyone else got 2% or less.

Now it is onto New Hampshire!

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