Guessing GOP Nevada Caucus

Very little polling data in Nevada for the caucus on Tuesday.

Until the race is down to a 2-way or 3-way race, Trump will probably keep racking up the wins.
Update: Here is an item that maps out how Trump can reach the needed delegates even in a three-way race.
Update: sounds like the Nevada caucus is not very well run. I suppose that is why hardly anyone is attempting to poll Nevada.

Prediction
Trump 34%
Rubio 28% 
Cruz 27%
everyone else combined 11%

Actual
Trump 46%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 21%
everyone else 9%

Update: Have clearly underestimated Trump's popularity and staying power. In national polling, Sanders is logging about 42% and Trump 34%. This is an indication with the dissatisfaction with the establishment.

I wonder if California will have a say in the nomination races?

I registered to vote when I turned 18 and was an "independent" (decline to state - in California). That was way back in 1981. As such, I did not vote in partisan primary elections for a long time because I was not affiliated with any party.

In 1996, while living in Maryland, I registered as a Republican because I wanted to vote in a primary. I voted for Steve Forbes as a protest vote. Bob Dole was the expected nominee and he indeed won. Forbes was a supporter of the flat tax. In my mind, supporting him was a way to say, the tax code needs fixing because it is loophole filled and a magnet for special interest lobbying. Since then I have retained my Republican registration.

In 2000, I was back in California and the state moved up its primary but by then Bush was pretty much in control of the race. I cast my ballot for John McCain since he represented an independent voice within the GOP.

In 2008, I supported Romney over McCain because I thought McCain was getting to be a stale figure on the political scene and the business minded Romney seemed a good choice. California moved its primary up that year as well but McCain sealed the deal with big wins throughout the USA on that Super Tuesday.

I supported Romney again in 2012.

Not looking forward to voting in 2016.


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