GOP Nomination Race: For the Establishment It May Be Too Late



The numbers don't look good for the #NotTrump movement.

If Trump runs the table with victories of various size, he clears the 1237 bar. In the chart below, I make some guesses on his delegate hauls on the assumption he runs the table.



In the next scenario, I make the assumption that the #NotTrump side wins everything except Arizona where polling data shows Trump is leading, New York, where Trump has a strong presence, and New Jersey, where Gov. Christie who endorsed Trump is from. This is probably the most rosy scenario for the Cruz/Kasich side. I suppose if Cruz/Kasich were to go on such an epic win streak, Trump might collect less than 35% of the delegates in the contests he loses. Nonetheless, using that assumption, this scenario keeps Trump below 1237 and 175 delegates short. The contested convention scenario is plausible in this case since it would reflect a serious case of buyer's remorse by the voters.



The final scenario is where Cruz/Kasich manage to gain a few victories here and there. Utah being a strongly Mormon state may find Trump too much to take and so Cruz wins it. Wisconsin being mid-westerners like Ohio may gravitate to Kasich or if Gov. Walker endorses Cruz, Trump could be defeated here. Connecticut, Maryland, and Rhode Island are fairly moderate high-income states where Trump's trade protectionist and anti-immigrant message may not sell as well opening the door to Cruz/Kasich to knock off Trump. Nebraska being next to Kansas could be Cruz country. Montana as a neighbor to Idaho might be Cruz country as well. And finally, as left-leaning California is, the California GOP itself is hard right and may also be Cruz country. Being a border state, Trump's anti-immigrant stance may play well. As you can see, if California goes for Trump, that could put him very close to or over the top of the 1237 threshold. Likewise, a Trump defeat in California, as in the scenario, Trump is kept slightly below. Could he arm twist 74 more delegates? I would think so. The #NotTrump side will have to have more wins and bigger wins than this scenario to make the contested convention a realistic scenario.



As you can see, the path for Trump is looking fairly good. For the Establishment, it may well be too late......

Stayed in bed all mornin' just to pass the time.
There's somethin' wrong here, there can be no denyin'.
One of us is changin', or maybe we've just stopped tryin'.
And it's too late, baby now, it's too late,
Though we really did try to make it.
Somethin' inside has died, and I can't hide,
And I just can't fake it, oh, no, no.

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