Medium sized Tuesday: Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii

3 proportional primaries and 1 caucus (Hawaii).

At RCP, there appears to be no polling data for Hawaii as caucus states are hard to poll and small states usually don't get polled much anyway. Same can be said of Idaho. There is a stale Mississippi poll from late February. Michigan is garnering the most polling with Trump in the lead but Kasich on the uptick.

If Mississippi votes like its neighbors, it should be a close contest between Trump and Cruz. Cruz needs a win to keep his status as the one who has and continues to beat Trump. Cruz probably won't win outright but in terms of the delegate count from Mississippi, I would think he will get a tie or close to it.

UPDATE: Completely wrong here. Trump did very well.

As for Michigan, has Kasich become the anti-Trump for that state? Alas, Trump's lead was so large, it would be surprising if it evaporates to the point he loses Michigan. If Kasich were to overtake him, that would suggest the negatives of Trump are starting to take hold. Kasich probably won't win outright but in terms of the delegate count from Michigan, I think he will get a tie or close to it.

UPDATE: Completely wrong here. Kasich wound up third narrowly edged out by Cruz.

Have no idea who has made efforts in Hawaii and Idaho. Sadly, the only news I've seen for the Idaho campaign is that one of the pastors who supports Cruz was shot in a church parking lot by someone for reasons apparently unrelated to the campaign. I would think Idaho would be a chance for Cruz to win and Hawaii would be a chance for Rubio to win. But I have no polling data to support these guesses. Rubio needs to finish strong somewhere tonight to build support for his last stand in Florida.

UPDATE: Got Idaho correct. Was wrong in Hawaii with Trump taking that caucus.

Clinton should have an easy night with big wins. The only question mark is Michigan. Probably more a question of the margin of victory than losing Michigan outright. But it has been a crazy year, who knows!

UPDATE: Wrong on Michigan as Sanders pulled off the upset no one saw coming. Clinton won Mississippi easily.

Poll closing times:
Mississippi 5pm PST
Michigan 6pm PST
Idaho 8pm PST
Hawaii 11pm PST




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