Super Tuesday - Known Unknown

The polling data says Trump should take everything except Texas tonight.

What I don't know is how many of these states have vigorous early voting mechanisms?

Thus, one of the "known unknowns" is how many votes Trump has through early voting prior to him setting himself on fire on the CNN Jake Tapper interview in regards to the KKK and David Duke.

And the flip side of early voting is how the "day of voters" turn out?

How many will now not vote for Trump and not vote at all versus how many will vote for one of the other GOP candidates?

Predictions in bold.

My guts tell me that Trump will lose some support but still win most of the states. Am figuring Trump isn't going to break 40% anywhere. But with Cruz/Rubio splitting the vote in the 20% range, Trump can still carry those states with low 30% vote totals. Don't see Kasich or Carson breaking 10% anywhere.

Cruz wins Texas allowing him to stay in the race.

Rubio needs to finish #2 more often than Cruz finishes #2 to stay in the race. Will be pretty hard to sustain support if he finishes third in too many states. I think he will be able to stay in the race.

Update: The 20% mark is important in some states as that is the cut-off for getting any delegates.

Actual: Red marks places where Trump exceeded 40%. His taking 7 of 11 with 2 > 40% finishes is a strong performance but not the knock out blow to his opponents he sought. Green marks states (6) where Cruz outpaced Rubio. Blue indicates where Rubio edged out Cruz (5). Purple shows where Kasich broke into the top-three. Carson hit the 10% mark in a couple of places but never got into the gold/silver/bronze podium.


The pressure on Carson to drop out will be pretty high with no top-3 finishes. If Kasich had no top 3 finishes, he would have been under tremendous pressure to exit the race as well. He will need to look long and hard at Ohio and decide whether he is confident he will win that state. Much as Cruz had to win Texas, Kasich needs Ohio. If he thinks he will lose Ohio, he will drop out. Rubio would have wanted to beat Cruz in 6 of 11 states as opposed to 5 of 11. However, he did get the win in Minnesota and had a very strong showing in Virginia. Like Kasich he has to look hard at Florida. Rubio can't survive a loss in Floria.

Prior to March 15 when Florida and Ohio vote, there are some contests for Cruz/Rubio/Kasich to evaluate their strength and to see if the "unsinkable" Trump is taking in any water from his gaffes and increased scrutiny.

March 5: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine
March 6: Puerto Rico
March 8: Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi
March 12: DC

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