Iowa results

Sen. Kerry's big mo going into the weekend turned out to be real as he *and* Sen. Edwards swamped Gov. Dean and Rep. Gephardt. Gov. Dean isn't done yet as if I recall, Clinton in 1992 lost in Iowa to Gephardt (UPDATE: Gephardt won in 1988, favorite son Sen. Tom Harkin won in 1992) and then lost to Tsongas in New Hampshire. But as the campaign went national and to the South, Clinton's money advantage and centrist stands won him the nomination and eventually the Presidency.

Gov. Dean does have the dollars and organization on the ground but not the centrist positions and no one would mistake his campaigning style to Clinton. In catching some of the speeches last night, Gov. Dean sounded like he was going to blow a gasket when he was trying to rally the supporters.

Like most voters, I care about a small number of big issues and will overlook differences on other ones and I look at the candidate: do I believe this person will make good decisions and pick good people to deal with all the issues that will come up that we don't foresee?

Gov. Dean is totally anti-war which in my mind is a deal-breaker. He is obviously passionate and that is fine but when it crosses over into a frenzied speaking style... that doesn't inspire confidence in my book. In the end, maybe the media over-exposure caught up with him and democrat voters aren't ready to go off the cliff with him.

In NH, Dean and Kerry face off with the rest fighting for that third spot to keep their campaign alive. Edwards would like to be #3 but could probably live to fight on in the South even without a third place finish. Clark probably needs a third place finish or better to keep his hopes alive. Lieberman is probably done. He is too center-right for the Democrat activists.

UPDATE: One observer from the right comments on Dean's speech. Then there is lefty Alterman who sees that Dean's tendancy to go over the top is a disadvantage. Excerpt:

But Dean does not wear well for a variety of reasons and is too risky a choice for the top spot on the ticket. Assuming he does not flip out down the road, he can be an important influence on the direction of the party as well as possibility for the veep spot. All that money he raised and the organization he put together will keep him competitive, but assuming he can be stopped, he will be.